二季度债券市场收益率曲线将陡峭化上行

在充裕资金面的影响下,一季度银行间债券市场走出一波温和上扬行情,10年期国债收益率从年初的3．7％左右下行至一季度末的3．35％附近。文章综合相关数据分析后预计,未来工业增加值增速、货币供应量将有所放缓,新增贷款有望平稳增长,宏观经济仍将高位运行,结合经济走势相似年份的CPl均值,预计二季度CPI上行至3％后逐步回落,国债及政策性金融债收益率曲线整体小幅上行,收益率曲线呈现陡峭化态势。     

供需结构优化、分配结构演化与2035年共同富裕目标展望

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求,中国推动经济社会发展,归根结底是要实现全体人民共同富裕。新发展阶段下中国既要优化供需结构以加快构建新发展格局,又要改善分配结构以全面贯彻新发展理念,而供需结构优化与分配结构演化又是紧密关联的。本文建立了一个包含供给结构、需求结构和分配结构的多部门动态一般均衡模型,将分配结构演化分解到供给结构与需求结构转型上,提出了需求结构通过影响供给结构进而影响分配结构的理论机制。本文对近三十年全球四十余个经济体劳动收入份额和技能溢价的演化进行了发展核算,展示了中国分配结构演化的特征事实、供需动因与国际比较。研究发现,中国分配结构演化道路具有一定的特殊性:一方面,劳动收入份额转为上升,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的劳动密集型产业(消费品)的劳动密集程度;另一方面,技能溢价不断扩大,供给侧(需求侧)最主要的推动力是持续提高的产业内部(消费品)的技能密集程度;供需结构转型在其中也发挥了重要作用。本文还基于历史趋势定量预测了未来中国分配结构的演化趋势,为实现2035年共同富裕目标提供了现实依据与政策参考。     

Internet of things and the economics of 5G-based local industrial networks

Fifth generation (5G) networks raise governance and management challenges that did not exist in 3G and 4G wireless technologies. Advanced wireless functionality enables new applications and services based on smart, physical, network infrastructures, many of them expected to be localized. As a general-purpose technology, 5G can be configured in numerous ways to support innovative applications across many sectors. Smart network applications and services must integrate physical and virtual components in innovative ways. In addition, general capabilities of 5G must be combined with complementary technologies, such as big data analytics and edge cloud services, to create services for specific use cases. Varying throughput and latency requirements of distinct use cases require differentiated technical solutions. Appropriate frequencies must be aligned efficiently with other features within the footprint of particular, local industrial networks. National policy makers, suppliers, and users are responding differently to these governance and management challenges. These approaches balance differently the trade-offs between experimentation, differentiation, and harmonization. Comparative analysis can inform gradual improvements of the governance of 5G-based, local industrial networks.     

老龄化趋势下老年群体的消费需求变化与产业发展对策研究

随着我国人口老龄化程度的不断加深,在经济内循环的政策驱动下,老龄人口消费需求将对我国产业发展产生深远的影响.目前,老龄人口消费需求强劲,但与之相关的医护、旅游、娱乐、地产、金融和教育等产业的发展相对滞后.政府应协同社会力量突破老年产业发展的瓶颈,扩大我国老年人的消费需求,带动国内经济发展.     

碳排放约束视角下产业智能化对区域经济差距的影响研究

本文利用2003~2019年中国省级面板数据,从碳排放约束视角出发,实证考察了产业智能化对区域经济差距影响的差异性和产业智能化影响区域经济差距的机制。研究表明,产业智能化对缩小全国、东、中和西部地区省域间经济差距具有显著的正向效应;进一步考虑碳排放约束,发现碳排放约束正向调节了产业智能化对区域经济差距的正向效应,西部地区由于自身产业结构和区位因素,抑制了产业智能化对区域经济差距的正向效应;最后,对产业结构升级的两个子维度在产业智能化和区域经济差距间的中介效应检验,发现产业结构升级的中介效应存在,且主要是通过产业结构高级化实现,产业结构合理化发挥的作用较小。     

数字经济对区域经济高质量发展的影响研究

推动数字经济发展,是我国在当下推动经济转型,促进高质量发展的重要战略。本文基于2012~2019年省级面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型,运用基准回归、异质性检验和分位数回归的方法进行实证研究发现,数字经济助推经济高质量发展的同时还存在地区差异,对西部影响最大,中部影响最小,而数字经济的发展水平又受到产业结构、技术创新等因素影响。因此,本文针对不同地区差异分别提出建议,从而促进持续更新发展理念,以创新驱动发展,优化产业结构为数字经济提供良好环境,以期推动数字经济建设发展。     

MNC foreign investment and industrial disasters: The moderating role of technological,safety management,and philanthropic capabilities

Research Summary: We investigate how industrial disasters can discourage FDI and how MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities can moderate these effects. Using two unique panel data sets of entry and expansion of U.S. wholly‐owned manufacturing subsidiaries overseas, we found that industrial disasters are associated with reduced foreign entry of wholly‐owned subsidiaries in the disaster industry, but not for all firms in the host country experiencing the disaster. We also found that MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities can, in some cases, positively moderate the negative relationships between industrial disasters and the foreign entry and expansion of wholly‐owned subsidiaries. Additionally, three‐way interactions with government stability suggest that technological and safety management capabilities substitute government stability in managing industrial disasters, while philanthropic capability complements government stability. Managerial Summary: How can MNCs' technological, safety management, and philanthropic capabilities overcome the effects of industrial disasters such as chemical spills and explosions in host countries? Our results show that industrial disasters are associated with reduced foreign entry of wholly‐owned subsidiaries in the industry in which the industrial disaster occurs, but not for other firms operating in the country experiencing the disaster. However, an MNC's technological capability can, in general, lower the negative consequences of industrial disasters in both the entry and expansion of its wholly‐owned subsidiaries. Regarding the institutional quality of a host country, the results imply that MNCs should develop philanthropic capability when the government stability of the host country is strong, and develop technological and safety management capabilities when the government stability is weak.     

基于模态应变能密度理论的网架结构损伤识别方法

为了研究网架结构的损伤检测方法,根据应变能密度理论,提出采用单元模态应变能密度差值作为网架结构损伤识别指标的方法,以损伤单元模态应变能密度差值的大小初步确定单元的损伤程度。分析了5种具有代表性的损伤工况,并在数值计算结果中引入了白噪声。结果显示,在一阶模态下,针对单损伤、多损伤和轻微损伤、严重损伤等不同损伤工况,损伤杆件的模态应变能密度差值均为高值。因此,该方法可以有效识别出网架结构的损伤位置,根据损伤单元的模态应变能密度差值大小初步确定单元的损伤程度,且在一定的噪声水平下具有较强的鲁棒性,对网架结构损伤识别具有参考价值。     

对变电站建设用地使用权证办理情况的调查及建议

《物权注》明确规定建设用地使用权人需要履行登记手续,取得建设用地使用权证。通过调查,目前国家电网公司系统尚有部分变电站没有取得建设用地使用权证。不办理变电站建设用地使用权证,变电站用地将得不到法律的承认与保护,可能使变电站用地面临越来越多的纠纷,影响变电站扩建,影响电网发展。需要稳步推进变电站建设用地使用权证的办理工作。以保证电网的健康发展。     

创新困境与市场结构——我国制药工业缺乏创新的产业经济学解释

我国制药工业正面临着技术创新困境。通过对制药工业技术创新特征的研究和国外企业的经验,文章发现进行高成本技术创新行为的产业组织根源是寡头竞争的市场结构。在此结论基础上,提出了我国制药工业摆脱技术创新困境所需要的产业组织政策。