绥芬河市新华街隧道围岩稳定分析

绥芬河市新华街隧道是目前黑龙江省最长的公路隧道,该隧道东起新华街,西至301国道,其最大埋深为101.1m,由于隧道穿越区域地质条件复杂,地应力较高,因此在前期施工过程中,已经出现了局部掉块现象。为了避免隧道在施工与运营期内出现大面积垮塌情况,本文对隧道的稳定性进行了分析评价,该隧道出现岩爆的可能极小,但是洞室围岩有塑性破坏的可能,为了防止由于塑性破坏诱发的塌落现象,建议采用4~5m的系统锚杆进行支护。     

A neuro-fuzzy combination model based on singular spectrum analysis for air transport demand forecasting

Air transport demand forecasting is receiving increasing attention, especially because of intrinsic difficulties and practical applications. Total passengers are used as a proxy for air transport demand. However, the air passenger time series usually has a complex behavior due to their irregularity, high volatility and seasonality. This paper proposes a new hybrid approach, combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA), adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO), for short-term air passenger traffic prediction. The SSA is used for identifying and extracting the trend and seasonality of air transport demand and the artificial intelligence technologies, including ANFIS and IPSO, are utilized to deal with the irregularity and volatility of the demand. The HK air passenger data are collected to establish and validate the forecasting model. Empirical results clearly points to the enormous potential that the proposed approach possesses in air transport demand forecasting and can be considered as a viable alternative.     

我国财政专项转移支付决策过程分析--以多源流分析为视角

财政转移支付是1994年实行分税制以来平衡中央-地方以及区域间财力不均的制度，我国专项转移支付又始终占据着财政转移支付的重大比重。专项转移支付在确定资金转移地区，资金转移项目以及每个专项拨款多少的标准是如何确定的？这些都取决于专项转移支付的决策过程。文章通过多源流分析视角来探析我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程中存在的问题，了解我国财政专项转移支付的决策过程。     

财务软件操作中常见问题解析——以金蝶KIS标准版为例

结合教学实践，分析金蝶KIS标准版财务软件的主要功能模块——系统维护及系统初始化设置模块、账务处理模块以及工资管理、固定资产管理、出纳管理等存在的常见操作问题，便于广大初学者熟练掌握会计软件。     

基于产业链延伸的青海省产业结构优化路径研究

合理优化产业结构是实现地区经济跨越式发展的重要保障。文章从三次产业结构比、产业关联度和轻重工业比三方面对青海产业结构存在的问题进行了分析,之后,基于产业链延伸的视角,提出了优化产业结构的相关措施与建议。     

大型交叉安全风险识别与评估

大型交叉施工具有建筑结构复杂、设备集中、人员密度大、环境密闭等特点,一旦结构发生安全事故,后果严重,而风险识别和评估可以结合施工的实际情况,对其中的各种危险源进行分类,并进行定量与定性评价。文章从风险特点及类型、风险分析依据及步骤、风险评估流程,最后得出风险识别与评估结论:工程项目风险识别与评估应是一个经常性反复循环的活动,是一个动态的过程。     

技术进步对中国就业影响的实证研究

选取1978—2008年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用DEA方法测算中国的全要素生产率及其分解项:技术变化与技术效率,并使用ARDL模型实证分析技术效率和技术变化对就业的影响。研究发现:技术效率无论是长期还是短期都对就业具有显著的抑制效应,但在短期中,技术变化当期对就业没有显著影响;而滞后期技术变化的改善也会对就业人数的增加产生抑制效应,同时,在长期中,技术变化对就业有着显著的促进效应,可以带动就业量的增加。     

Cost effectiveness of rosuvastatin in patients at risk of cardiovascular disease based on findings from the JUPITER trial

Abstract

Objective:

This study assessed the long-term cost effectiveness of rosuvastatin therapy compared with placebo in reducing the incidence of major cardiovascular (CVD) events and mortality.

Methods:

A probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model estimated long-term cost effectiveness of rosuvastatin therapy (20?mg daily) for the prevention of CVD mortality and morbidity. The model included three stages: (1) CVD prevention simulating the 4 years of the JUPITER trial, (2) initial CVD prevention beyond the trial, and (3) subsequent CVD event prevention. A US payer perspective was assessed reflecting direct medical costs, and up to a lifetime horizon. Sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the model estimates.

Results:

For a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 patients at moderate and high risk of CVD events based on Framingham risk of ≥10%, estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained with rosuvastatin therapy compared with placebo was 33,480 over a lifetime horizon, and 25,380 and 9916 over 20-year and 10-year horizons, respectively. Approximately 12,073 events were avoided over the lifetime; 6,146 non-fatal MIs, 2905 non-fatal strokes, and 4030 CVD deaths avoided. Estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for cost per QALY was $7062 (lifetime), $10,743 (20-year horizon), and $44,466 (10-year horizon). For a hypothetical cohort similar to the overall JUPITER population, the cost per QALY ICER was $11,025 for the lifetime and $60,112 for a 10-year horizon.

Limitations:

The cost-effectiveness comparison of rosuvastatin 20?mg was against no active treatment (as opposed to an alternative statin) due to lack of comparative cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk reduction data for other statins in a population similar to the JUPITER trial population. The analysis was conducted from the payer perspective and lack of inclusion of indirect costs limit interpretability of results from a societal perspective.

Conclusions:

Treatment with rosuvastatin 20?mg daily, is a cost-effective treatment alternative to no treatment in patients at a higher risk (Framingham risk ≥10%) of CVD.     

Older shopper types from store image factors

This study aims to characterise the older shopper by exploring unobserved heterogeneity within the segment and developing an older shopper typology from an empirically derived store image scale. Store attribute theory informed a two-stage research design. Firstly, a ‘pool’ of salient store attributes was identified through in-depth interviews. Scales were then developed and quantitatively tested using data collected through a household postal survey. Seven store image factors emerged, forming the basis of the typology. Five clusters were subsequently profiled using behavioural and demographic variables: Prudent neutrals, All-Round demanders, Reluctant casuals, Demanding sociables, and Affluent utilitarians. A discussion of the resultant classification's utility in terms of retail strategy, including opportunities for better targeting through adjustment of the retail offer, is presented. This study develops a store image scale that reflects the importance of store choice decisions of older shoppers, extending store image research by providing contemporary insights into the requirements of older shoppers in a changing retail environment.     

Driver behaviour and business outcomes: An alternative approach to the psychology of the owner–manager

Previous psychological approaches to the study of owner–managers are reviewed and an alternative model based on the transactional analysis concept of Drivers is put forward. This model is tested out via a series of interviews and observations of 20 owner–managers of small and medium–sized businesses based in the North East of England. The relationship between driver behaviour and business performance is explored and the negative consequences of driver behaviour for the business are identified. Driver behaviour is also viewed as potentially beneficial and the inherent positive aspects of driver behaviour are proposed as the opposite end of a continuum of behaviours which are at the heart of business success. On a methodological level the need for an approach grounded in the owner–managers behaviour is confirmed.