转型研究和有限理性假设的适用性

主流经济学家的理性假设有完全理性、有限理性、程序理性等等不同的词汇。虽然完全理性的假设在逻辑上不断受到挑战，然而，迄今为止完全理性假设的地位并没有动摇。本文从中国经济体制转型研究的问题实际出发，探讨有限理性假设的适用性。有两个原因使得有限理性假设在中国经济体制转型研究中成为必要的假设条件：一是时间约束；二是计划经济的他组织结构。转型时期经济主体有限理性行为的特征是：行动目标、行动手段、目标和手段之间的关系可能不明确；短时效的决策程序和满意化的行动标准。     

Ethical Rationality: A Strategic Approach to Organizational Crisis

In this paper, we present an ethical and strategic approach to managing organizational crises. The proposed crisis management model (1) offers a new approach to guide an organization’s strategic and ethical response to crisis, and (2) provides a two-by-two framework for classifying organizational crises. The ethically rational approach to crisis draws upon strategic rationality, crisis, and ethics literature to understand and address organizational crises. Recent examples of corporate crises are employed to illustrate the theoretical claims advanced. Finally, the paper provides guidelines for a morally optimal outcome for the organization and its stakeholders. Peter Snyder is a Ph.D. student in Organizations and Strategic Management at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. His research interests include strategy making and corporate governance. Molly Hall is an attorney who practices international and environmental law in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. She teaches adjunct courses in business ethics, environmental policy, and the European Union. Joline Robertson is a Ph.D. candidate in Organizations and Strategic Management at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Her research interests include international business. Tomasz Jasinski is a Ph.D. student in Organizations and Strategic Management at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. His research interests include strategic alliances. Janice S. Miller received her Ph.D. from Arizona State Univerity in Business Administration with a concentration in Human Resource management. She has been on the faculty at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee UWM since 1996 and has served as the Associate Dean for Academic Programs in the School of Business Administration since 2002. Dr. Miller’s primary research interests include performance management, compensation and ethical issues in organizations.     

Instrumental variable estimation based on grouped data

The paper considers the estimation of the coefficients of a single equation in the presence of dummy intruments. We derive pseudo ML and GMM estimators based on moment restrictions induced either by the structural form or by the reduced form of the model. The performance of the estimators is evaluated for the non-Gaussian case. We allow for heteroscedasticity. The asymptotic distributions are based on parameter sequences where the number of instruments increases at the same rate as the sample size. Relaxing the usual Gaussian assumption is shown to affect the normal asymptotic distributions. As a result also recently suggested new specification tests for the validity of instruments depend on Gaussianity. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the asymptotic approach.     

Linear learning in changing environments

The decision maker receives signals imperfectly correlated with an unobservable state variable and must take actions whose payoffs depend on the state. The state randomly changes over time. In this environment, we examine the performance of simple linear updating rules relative to Bayesian learning. We show that a range of parameters exists for which linear learning results in exactly the same decisions as Bayesian learning, although not in the same beliefs. Outside this parameter range, we use simulations to demonstrate that the consumption level attainable under the optimal linear rule is virtually indistinguishable from the one attainable under Bayes’ rule, although the respective decisions will not always be identical. These results suggest that simple rules of thumb can have an advantage over Bayesian updating when more complex calculations are more costly to perform than less complex ones. We demonstrate the implications of such an advantage in an evolutionary model where agents “learn to learn.”     

Information Processing Hierarchies

This paper characterizes optimal stationary hierarchies based on an information processing model introduced by Radner. We show how the delay, size (number of processors), capacity (the size of each cohort processed), and throughput (frequency of cohort arrival) are related and determine a feasibility frontier in the space of these variables. The structure of efficient hierarchies implementing the points on the feasibility frontier is also specified. These structures are always nonregular; i.e., every agent has subordinates from several different levels. The nature of the long accepted maxim of decreasing returns to scale in management hierarchies is demonstrated. When the production function of the hierarchy is taken to be the number of information items it can process, we find that returns to size and delay are always decreasing in efficient hierarchies, but these variables are complementary in the design problem. Finally, we discuss how the underlying abilities of the processors affect the marginal returns to size and delay. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: L22, D83.     

Thought experimentation and the Phillips curve

This paper offers the rationale for presenting a particular type of Phillips curve and develops the dynamic behavior of an economy where such a Phillips curve relation is observed. The specific kind of relation that is explored has similarities with the sticky-information Phillips curve of the Mankiw-Reis framework. Nevertheless, it adds an important dimension: firms need to form expectations about current events on past time periods not because of infrequent optimal updating of information but because producers want to evaluate the possibility of taking advantage of information deficiencies on the consumers’ side. A positive probability of ‘fooling’ consumers with a price above the one imposed by market conditions re-shapes the dynamic relation between the inflation rate and the output gap.     

略论人本资本价值的形成路径——基于有限理性人假设视角

利用不完全契约理论和资源与市场关系,揭示了超额利润市场形成以及组成人本资本的企业内生性人力资本与治理资本（组织资本、关系资本）是企业品的构成要素,并论证人本资本价值决定企业价值。根据无委托代理定义,以完全理性的委托代理为参照系,探索在有限理性人的假设下,探索企业的人本资本价值形成路径及其意义。     

我国构建沉默权制度的理性选择

沉默权是公民对于内心意思予以保留不被外界知晓的一项基本宪法权利和自由,是公民言论自由的不作为表现形式。此制度之构建,学界争议颇多,本文旨在充分考虑在我国的现实情况的基础上,认为我国应当实行一套有限的"沉默权制度",努力在被追诉人的人权保护和社会整体利益之间寻求合理的平衡点。     

On estimating Armington elasticities for Japan's meat imports

By fully accounting for the distinct tariff regimes levied on imported meat, we estimate substitution elasticities of Japan's two-stage import aggregation functions for beef, chicken and pork. Although the regression analysis crucially depends on the price that consumers face, the post-tariff price of imported meat depends not only on ad valorem duties but also on tariff rate quotas and gate price system regimes. The effective tariff rate is consequently evaluated by utilising monthly transaction data. To address potential endogeneity problems, we apply exchange rates that we believe to be independent of the demand shocks for imported meat. The panel nature of the data allows us to retrieve the first-stage aggregates via time dummy variables, free of demand shocks, to be used as part of the explanatory variable and as an instrument in the second-stage regression.