互联网金融对商业银行信用卡业务影响的实证研究

基于上市商业银行2007~2013年信用卡业务数据,运用结构方程模型考量互联网金融对商业银行信用卡业务的影响,结果表明,互联网金融通过网络银行业务的中介作用,实现对信用卡业务的溢出效应,在一定程度上促进商业银行信用卡业务的发展,但互联网金融的替代效应却不显著。有鉴于此,商业银行应积极开拓互联网金融,加快其自身业务的发展。     

Risk-taking incentives of executive stock options and the asset substitution problem

Various theoretical models show that managerial compensation schemes can reduce the distortionary effects of financial leverage. There is mixed evidence as to whether highly levered firms offer less stock‐based compensation, a common prediction of such models. Both the theoretical and empirical research, however, have overlooked the leverage provided by executive stock options. In principle, adjusting the exercise prices of executive stock options can mitigate the risk incentive effects of financial leverage. We show that the near‐universal practice of setting option exercise prices near the prevailing stock price at the date of grant effectively undoes most of the effects of financial leverage. In a large cross‐sectional sample of Canadian option‐granting firms, we find evidence that executives' incentives to take equity risk are negatively rather than positively related to the leverage of their employers.     

Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor

This paper solves numerically the intertemporalconsumption and portfolio choiceproblem of an infinitely-lived investor whofaces a time-varying equity premium.The solutions we obtain are very similarto the approximate analytical solutionsof Campbell and Viceira (1999), except atthe upper extreme of the state spacewhere both the numerical consumption andportfolio rules flatten out.We also consider a constrained version ofthe problem in which the investor facesborrowing and short-sales restrictions.These constraints bind when the equitypremium moves away from its mean in eitherdirection, and are particularly severe forrisk-tolerant investors. The constraints havesubstantial effects on optimalconsumption, but much more modest effects onoptimal portfolio choice in theregion of the state space where they are notbinding.     

An Intertemporal CAPM Approach to Evaluate Mutual Fund Performance

Merton (1973) and Campbell (1993) have demonstrated that if an investor anticipates information shifts, he will adjust his portfolio choice today in an attempt to hedge these shifts. Exploiting these insights, we construct a new performance measure to evaluate fund managers' hedging ability. This new measure is different from two widely adopted performance evaluation measures: securities selectivity and market timing. Moreover, an econometric methodology is developed to simultaneously estimate the magnitudes of these three portfolio performance evaluation measures. The results show that mutual fund managers are on average with positive security selection and negative market timing ability. Furthermore, the mutual funds with investment style classified as Asset Allocation generally have positive hedging timing ability.     

Intertemporal substitution in the Spanish economy: Evidence from regional data

This paper studies the intertemporal substitution in consumption and leisure for the Spanish economy by estimating the first‐order conditions of an individual optimization model with regional and aggregate data. While first‐order conditions determining intertemporal substitution in consumption show a good econometric fit, and the value we obtain for the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is similar to previously available results, the econometric fit of the intertemporal condition in leisure indicates that the behaviour of the Spanish labour supply over the cycle is more complex than can be explained by the canonical intertemporal choice model.     

我国奢侈品税的政策效应分析

2006年4月,中国调整了消费税税目,将部分游离于消费税之外的奢侈品纳入了课税范围,其目的在于调节贫富差异,促进社会公平。究竟能否达到政策目标,由于改革时日尚短,缺乏足够的数据资料,难以进行实证检验。因此,本文主要从经济学理论方面进行分析和探讨,预期在中国当前的现实状况下,奢侈品税不仅难以缩小贫富差距,相反,还很有可能遏制国内新兴产业的发展。     

2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主菲尔普斯理论评介

本文介绍了2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃德蒙.菲尔普斯的主要理论贡献。他在宏观经济政策跨期权衡分析、“黄金律”与经济增长、宏观经济政策的“短期—长期”分析、“自然率”、构建宏观经济学的微观基础,以及结构性萧条与繁荣等诸多领域进行了开创性的研究。菲尔普斯的理论和主张对西方经济理论和经济政策的研究都有十分重大的影响。     

贸易战略选择:一般情形与大国情形

发展中国家普遍具有的二元经济结构的特征决定了这些国家经济发展的一个根本途径就是实行工业化。可供选择的实现工业化的手段包括出口促进和进口替代战略,而不同战略的业绩比较一直是学者们争论的焦点。文章通过一个简单的三部门模型,讨论了一般情况下不同贸易战略的绩效,并讨论了大国条件下不同贸易战略选择的特殊性以及有关我国贸易战略选择的问题。     

On the role of the utility function in the estimation of preference parameters

Modern economic theory summarizes the main characteristics of individual preferences through a definite set of parameters: risk aversion, prudence, and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Despite their importance, the results of the literature devoted to the parameters’ estimation are controversial. This paper highlights the neglected role that may have been played by the constraints that the quantitative definition of the parameters and the utility functions employed impose on the estimation. A number of simulation exercises are presented, which show that the same saving behaviour can be associated with quite different values of the parameters depending on the utility function adopted.