2010年北京三次产业发展预测与研究

本文通过对北京三次产业发展的现状分析,研究了三次产业的生产结构、分配结构、经济效 益和经济结构的演变过程,指出目前存在的主要问题并结合模型对2010年北京的三次产业做了预测展望。     

基于政策演变的景区经营权转让的实践问题分析

自从1997年张家界黄龙洞和宝峰湖的经营权转让以来，景区经营权转让就一直成为争论的焦点。主要从中国相关政策的演进和资源的价值构成分析景区经营权转让的可行性和实践中面临的问题进行探讨，并针对目前的发展形式提出了一些建议。     

农业发展与经济增长的变结构协整关系研究

运用变结构协整理论研究我国农业发展与经济增长的长期均衡关系,采用循序检验法确定变结构点,发现在1961年和1980年农业发展与经济增长均衡关系发生突变;对1952～2003年的数据进行变结构协整检验,得到两段变结构形式,表现为参数变结构的水平趋势项飘移型和状态开关型协整关系,最后建立了误差修正模型。     

中国行政法制度变迁的原因探析

在建设中国法治行政的过程中,行政法制度内部的失衡、外部社会环境的变化、公众参与热情的高涨,以及社会历史的可持续发展等,都促使行政法制度发生变迁。为更好地掌控制度变迁,探究这些因素如何引起制度变迁,具有重要的作用和意义。     

基于景观理念的大学校园规划探析--对桂林旅游学院(筹)规划设计的初步思考

以桂林旅游学院(筹)正在建设中的新校园为例，试图探析基于景观规划理念的中小尺度空间的大学校园规划设计的基本原则和景观元素设计。     

奥肯定律与扩大的奥肯模型估计——关于中国就业与经济增长的数量关系实证(1978-2003)

奥肯定律表明与正常的(或潜在的或趋势的)增长率相比,高产出增长伴随着失业率的降低,低产出增长伴随着失业率的上升.作为一种经验规律,奥肯定律在西方很多国家的实践中得到了良好的验证.本文根据1978年以来中国的宏观经济统计数据进行模型回归检验,结果显示我国城镇登记失业率的变化与实际产出增长率之间不存在典型的奥肯规律.由于我国公开的失业率并不能反映真实的市场失业率,为此用就业量代替失业率,建立扩大的奥肯模型,分别对我国第一、二和三产业的就业增长与经济增长的数量关系进行估计.实证的结果显示我国第二、三产业的就业增长与产出增长和物价上涨均为正相关;而我国农业的就业增长与产出增长存在负相关.     

论企业动态战略能力的构建

由于战略思维和战略制定与实施的线性化,传统的战略设计模式不能适应动态环境的变化,必须强调战略对外部环境和内部资源、能力的动态应变性,改变传统的线性战略思维和静态的战略设计及实施模式.仅对战略设计模式进行改进是不够的,必须在企业内构建动态战略能力.企业的动态战略能力包括动态战略思维能力、战略转变能力和战略评价能力.     

Risk Aversion, Intergenerational Equity and Climate Change

The paper investigates a climate-economy model with an iso-elastic welfare function in which one parameter measures relative risk-aversion and a distinct parameter measures resistance to intertemporal substitution.We show both theoretically and numerically that climate policy responds differently to variations in the two parameters. In particular, we show that higher but lower leads to increase emissions control. We also argue that climate-economy models based on intertemporal expected utility maximization, i.e. models where = , may misinterpret the sensitivity of the climate policy to risk-aversion.     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.     

Economic reforms,efficiency and productivity in Chinese banking

This paper analyzes the impact of banking reforms on efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) change in Chinese banking industry. Using an input distance function, we find that joint-equity banks are more efficient than wholly state-owned banks (WSOBs). Furthermore, both WSOBs and joint-equity banks are found to be operating slightly below their optimal size, suggesting potential advantages in expansion of their businesses. Overall, TFP growth was 4.4% per annum for the sample period 1993–2002. Joint-equity banks experienced much higher growth in TFP (5.5% per annum) compared to the WSOBs (1.4% per annum).