Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil

Can political interference deconstruct credibility that was hardly-earned through successful stabilization policy? We analyze the recent switch in the conduct of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). Brazil is the largest Emerging Market Economy to formally target inflation, having adopted the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime in 1999. In the early years of IT, the BCB engaged in constructing credibility with price setting agents and succeeded to anchor inflation expectations to its target even under adverse conditions such as exchange rate crises. We argue that this effort to maintain IT rules-based policy ended in 2011, as a new country president and BCB board came to power. We then discuss the consequences of this credibility loss. Our main results can be summarized as follows: (i) we provide strong empirical evidence of the BCB’s shift toward looser, discretionary policy after 2011; (ii) preliminary evidence suggests that this shift has affected agents’ inflation expectations generating social and economic costs.     

农村宅基地使用权申请审批问题研究——基于地方立法文本的分析

地方立法中的申请审批条款在一定程度上决定着我国农村宅基地申请审批的实际状况。通过对地方立法文本中关于申请审批的立法模式和内容构成的统计分析，发现我国目前宅基地申请人的资格不一，审批中农村集体经济组织主体位置虚缺，而且宅基地立法层级很低，立法清理工作不及时。我国今后应明确农村集体经济组织成员的内涵，强化宅基地所有权人在审批中的作用，制定统一的《农村宅基地使用权法》。     

多样化人才培养模式构建的影响因素及其思考

地方工科院校多样化人才培养模式的构建,受到社会、高校以及学生个人因素的影响.弄清并理顺它们之间的相互关系,可以为地方工科院校进行多样化人才培养模式构建提供理论依据,也为构建多样化人才培养模式的质量保障体系奠定基础.     

区域一体化、地方利益冲突与利益协调

由于区域利益与地方利益之间存在一致性与差异性、群体性与集中性、中观性与微观性的矛盾属性,导致区域合作中的地方利益冲突无法避免,且利益冲突涉及到社会、政治、经济和自然环境等诸多领域,阻碍了区域合作和经济一体化进程。为了协调利益冲突,亟待树立合作共赢理念,完善利益分配协商、利益分享与补偿、利益争端调解、利益共享等机制。     

大国治理逻辑下地方公共收入机制的构建——基于公共物品有效供给分析

分税制框架下的现行地方公共收入机制,无论从增长效应还是从公平效应看,其制度设计均不利于促成地方政府有效供给公共物品。基于大国治理逻辑的一个理论基石是,促成公共物品有效供给的地方公共收入机制,需要融合独立性财权与权力制衡机制。据此,结合受益原则与支付能力原则,利于公共物品有效供给的地方公共收入机制构建,应在不触动当前政府间财政制衡设计的框架下,围绕权力确定、来源清晰,负担落实、征管优势、适度弹性原则,注重财产税、使用者费、地方公债三大收入形式的运用,并借助制度调整来增强地方独立性财权。     

人民币升值能改善日美与中国的贸易状况吗?——基于汇率经过效应的研究

有学者提出,被低估的人民币是中国贸易盈余和全球贸易不平衡的主要因素,因此,人民币升值有助于改善中西方的贸易状况。显然,这种观点的内在逻辑是:人民币升值将提高中国出口商品的价格,同时降低外国进口商品和服务的价格,即人民币升值存在较大的汇率经过效应(pass-though effect)。通过对人民币汇率经过效应的研究,发现人民币升值不能改善美国与中国的贸易状况,但能改善日本与中国的贸易状况;其差别的原因就在于贸易定价的不同。     

湖北地方政府投融资平台的风险与重构研究

在预期利率水平走高和货币政策转向稳健的背景下,湖北某些地方融资平台还本付息压力陡增,必须谨防资金链断裂,从而避免资金危机和风险的倒逼。地方投融资平台的清理重构的基础条件是建立清晰的地方资产负债表和多样性的融资模式,但最终取决于地方政府自觉放弃在过多领域的投资主导,唯如此,才能在属于自己的领域规范地完成融资任务。     

政府投资生态环境建设优化路径选择——基于中国省级地方政府的研究视角

地方政府投资生态环境建设,对实现地区的国民经济与生态环境的协调发展起着重要作用。运用面板数据模型对地方政府投资的生态环境效应进行分析的结果表明：随着人均地方政府投资的增加,人均二氧化硫、人均工业烟尘和人均工业粉尘三类污染物排放持续下降,即这三类污染物的排放得到了有效控制,地方政府投资对生态环境的改善起到了一定的促进作用。因此,地方政府应从资金和制度等方面优化投资生态环境。     

地方政府规模影响因素实证分析

本文从公共服务需求角度出发,运用中国31省面板数据检验了地方政府规模的影响因素。研究发现：（1）我国地方政府规模发展趋势符合瓦格纳法则,同时满足对外经济的效率假说和补偿假说;（2）民族多元化对地方政府规模有显著的正向影响;（3）上期政府收入对政府支出有很大的正向影响,说明二者之间互为因果关系。     

Idiosyncratic use of credit facilities by consumers in an emerging economy

A worldwide increase in household debt since the turn of the century has created considerable concern about the indebtedness of households, especially those in emerging economies that have been hit particularly hard by the global economic slump. In this study, the credit consumption of consumers in Swaziland (N = 264) was investigated by means of a survey that aimed to identify and describe factors that encouraged consumers' use of credit, the influence of credit on their buying behaviour when choosing major household appliances or furniture as well as consumers' knowledge of the conditions of credit facilities that were available for their use in retail. Findings revealed that consumers unequivocally appreciate the convenience that is associated with credit, specifically to cope with unexpected purchases, to benefit from special offers and opportunity to afford expensive goods. These advantages apparently negate the negative consequences such as high interest rates and strain on household budgets. Mean scores that were obtained in the knowledge test that only reflected upon credit agreements that respondents have actually entered into in the past, confirmed their ignorance pertaining to their contractual obligations and their consequent vulnerability. Consumers' age and gender seem to have noteworthy consequences for efforts to enhance informed consumer decision‐making. Younger females were significantly better informed that their older counterpart while the reverse was true for males, although differences were not significant. The significant inverse relationship between income and the LS‐means for the credit knowledge test differ from findings in developed countries and provide valuable opportunity for further investigation.