国内外橡胶价格的动态关系分析

运用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数等计量方法,使用1997年1月到2009年12月国内天然橡胶橡胶、国内合成橡胶、国际天然橡胶的月平均价格数据,研究了各类价格之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:国内天然橡胶、合成橡胶与以人民币计价的天然橡胶国际价格存在长期均衡关系,但与美元计价的价格则不存在;国内天然橡胶价格偏离时受其与国际市场的长期均衡的调整力强,国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶的均衡调整对后者的调整作用更大;天然橡胶国际市场价格对国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶价格都有较强的预测力,国内合成橡胶价格对天然橡胶价格具有预测力,反之,预测力很弱;国际天然橡胶价格变动对国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶的冲击大,尤其是对前者,但国内价格变动对国际价格的冲击力小;国内天然橡胶价格对来自合成橡胶的冲击反映相对慢,幅度也相对小,反之,则较为强烈。     

Estimating the costs and benefits of soil conservation in Europe

Economics is about problems of choice. In erosion control, both public authorities and private land users are faced with such problems. What is the impact of erosion, both on-site and off-site, and to what extent can this impact be quantified? If we conceptualize this impact in terms of sustainability, how can we compare one type of effect against another? The former question can be answered only by natural scientists, the latter by economists and other social scientists. Weighing different aspects of sustainability requires value judgments, and economists are sometimes accused of having a jaundiced view of reality, wrongly supposing that decisions are based on rationality and denying the importance of emotion.However, let us assume that there is some mileage to be gained out of attempting to estimate the cost of erosion in an economic sense—which consists of converting the various effects into a common denominator: euros. If we can predict the impact of erosion control measures on erosion rates, we can know the benefit of these measures. The cost also needs to be calculated, not in terms of money but in terms of resources expended (which could have been used for other purposes) and in terms of possible negative impacts of erosion control (for instance, increased use of herbicides in reduced-tillage systems).There are important other considerations which economists may study. Firstly, there is the comparison of present versus future costs and benefits: how much can we sacrifice today for higher sustainability tomorrow?Secondly, there is the issue of private versus public costs and benefits: how do the goals of private land users differ from (those of?) the public good, how can this help us to predict land users’ behaviour, and what incentives would be appropriate to make them behave in such a way as to maximize the public good? Thirdly, how do we deal with uncertainty and risk?These problems loomed large in a study to support an extended impact assessment for the EU Soil Thematic Strategy, in 2005. Whereas much research has been done on erosion and its impact, much of this is on a small scale. The extent of the problem on a national, let alone a continental or a global scale, is still poorly known. The paper discusses how these problems were faced, which is not the same as saying they were resolved.     

论四川林业碳汇贸易的发展潜力

近年来四川提出建设西部综合交通枢纽,建设西部物流中心、商贸中心和金融中心,以及建设重要战略资源开发基地、现代加工制造业基地、科技创新产业化基地、农产品深加工基地的发展思路,为整合林业大省资源,发展林业碳汇贸易带来良好机遇。文章考查了四川林业碳汇贸易发展的内外因素,重点分析了林业碳汇贸易的发展潜力,提出了立足四川省情,结合国际国内市场的顺势发展路径。     

江西省发展森林旅游的SWOT分析与对策

采用SWOT分析方法对江西省发展森林旅游的优势与劣势、机会与威胁进行分析,提出建立科技保障体系、扩大投资建设融资渠道、加快森林旅游资源深度开发、鼓励社区居民积极参与、做好宣传与营销工作等江西省森林旅游开发的对策与建议。     

中国水产品对日本出口的商品结构实证分析

本文收集了近10年中国水产品对日本出口的贸易数据,利用分散度指数、结构变化指数以及区域显示性比较优势指数,对中国水产品出口到日本的商品结构进行实证分析,结果发现：1998～2007年,中国水产品对日出口的分散程度呈现出“先增高,后降低”的趋势;商品结构变化幅度呈现出“低-高-低-高”的变化趋势;中国深加工水产品（0371、0372）在日本市场具有很强的竞争优势;中国对日本出口额较大、竞争优势较强的水产品大多集中在日本进口额相对较小的水产品类别上。     

风险分析体系在食品安全管理中的应用效果

全球经济一体化发展程度的加深使食品国际贸易得到了迅速发展,传统饮食上的地域限制逐渐被打破,在此发展背景下,影响食品行业的不安全因素也在不断增多。近年来,随着物质生活水平的不断提升,人们对食品安全的关注程度也在不断加深,在确保公平贸易、促进经济平稳高速发展的同时,做到有效规避风险、确保公众健康安全,是对食品安全的基本要求。本文主要分析了食品安全管理中,风险分析体系的作用及应用效果。     

免疫检测技术在食品检验中的应用分析

免疫检测技术在食品检验工作中的应用范围逐渐扩大,可清晰检验出食品中的添加剂、农药残留和其他有毒有害物质,保证食品安全.本文探讨了威胁食品安全的因素,分析了免疫检测技术在食品检验中的应用,并提出了提高食品安全检验质量的有效措施.     

土地市场对房价的时效影响研究--以广州市为例

在全国范围内房价出现持续上涨的同时,广州市的房价却出现了阶段性平稳下降的现象.鉴于土地市场是影响城市房地产价格最为重要的因素之一,通过采用时差相关性方法测算广州市土地市场相关因素对房价在时间上领先或滞后作用及年限,结合实证分析广州市土地交易价格、土地供应面积、土地出让金与政策法律法规均对房价的时效作用,并提出可行性的政策建议.     

Environmental Policy Uncertainty and Marketable Permit Systems: The Dutch Phosphate Quota Program

Tradable permits are generally considered as an efficient instrument to regulate pollution by individual producers. However, uncertainty about changes in or possible discontinuation of the program could make individual farmers reluctant to invest in tradable permits. This article uses the option approach to derive a theoretical model that shows the impact of policy uncertainty on investment in tradable quota. The empirical assessment provides weak evidence for the existence of option values due to policy uncertainty for phosphate quota in swine production in the Netherlands.