China's macroeconomic stability – an empirical study based on survey data

A complete financial stability analysis should include investigation on macroeconomic stability since macroeconomic development and potential imbalance can increase the financial instability and trigger a financial crisis. Survey data of rating on China's macroeconomic stability is analyzed by estimating an ordered logit model with random effect. Among the candidate macroeconomic indicators, we found that inflation is the key variable that determines China's macroeconomic stability, followed by the change in budget balance and GDP growth gap.     

Choosing propensity score matching over regression adjustment for causal inference: when,why and how it makes sense

Summary

This study identified when regression adjustment fails to adjust adequately for differences in observed covariates and where propensity score matching is the only alternative.

Multivariate analysis might fail to adjust for observed confounders if:

• 1. The means of the propensity scores in the two groups are more than one-half a standard deviation apart unless distributions of the covariates in both groups are nearly symmetric, sample sizes of the two groups are approximately the same and distributions of the covariates in the two groups have similar variances;

• 2. The ratio of the propensity score variances in the two groups is significantly different from one;

• 3. The ratio of residual variances in the two groups after adjusting for the propensity score is significantly different from one.

Conducted retrospective analysis showed that the treatment effect would be an estimated $305 (or 26%) less if the misspecified outcome model had been chosen.     

The synergistic effect of insurance and banking sector activities on economic growth in Africa

It is widely understood that the insurance and banking sectors of every economy perform some functions in driving economic growth. What is not yet well documented is whether their roles are complimentary or substitutive. With the aid of the dynamic panel generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation technique, this paper evaluates the synergistic effect of both sectors on economic growth in a panel of 10 African countries that are responsible for most of the activities in the continent’s financial sector. The insurance-banking-growth nexus was also examined through bootstrap panel causality tests. The results show that the life insurance market and the banking sector, as well as the non-life insurance market and the banking sector, are complimentary. We find that, overall, the relationship between the insurance and banking sectors in Africa is a complimentary one and that their synergistic impact on economic growth is positive. The feedback hypothesis was also confirmed in the relationship between the insurance sector and economic growth and between the banking sector and economic growth.     

Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation

The long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion. From a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) test applied to the residuals of the cointegration relationship (while allowing for both a break in the mean of the long-run equation and a smooth regime-transition), there is strong evidence for non-linear mean reversion properties for the real interest rates of the US Treasury Bill market. This suggests asymmetric changes to inflation shocks in the Central Bank's reaction function. The existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism.     

基础设施对中国经济增长的影响及机制研究——基于扩展的Barro增长模型

基础设施既可以作为特殊的资本存量直接促进经济增长,又可以通过促进投资和劳动力增加(增加生产要素数量)以及提高存量资本和劳动力的边际生产率(提高生产要素效率)间接促进经济增长。本文构建了一个扩展的Barro经济增长模型,并利用中国1992—2016年省级面板数据和中介效应模型对两条机制进行实证检验。结果发现:基础设施对经济增长具有促进作用,但对交通、能源、通信三类基础设施的影响以及在2008年金融危机前后均表现出异质性。直接效应呈动态上升趋势,中介效应则逐渐下降。针对异质性的原因,本文进一步采用非线性模型进行检验。结果表明我国基础设施对经济增长的促进作用主要表现为规模扩张型、数量型或外延型,而不是以质量型和内涵型为主的形式。能源和通信基础设施对经济增长的总效应具有规模效应,交通基础设施的规模效应不显著,但也对经济增长具有持续促进作用。这说明目前我国三类基础设施仍然具有较大投资潜力。其中的关键是要通过基础设施建设提高生产要素效率。     

中部崛起政策对地区产业升级的异质性影响与机制分析--基于PSM-DID方法的一项拟自然实验

国家中部崛起政策实施13年来,相关地区的经济发展和产业结构发生不同程度的变化。为进一步引导发展,需对这一政策的实施效果作整体评估和检验。基于1999-2013年我国201个地级市的面板数据,运用PSM-DID方法,从长期影响角度评估中部崛起政策实施效果。结果表明,以地区技术复杂度度量的产业结构得到了显著的提升。在此基础上考察中国式财政分权模式下政府财政行为波动对政策效果的影响,结果显示政府财政支出波动对地区产业升级会起到负面作用。进一步的机制检验表明,吸引外商直接投资、积极性政府财政政策、突破路径依赖是实现政策效果的中介变量;政策着力点主要在高技术水平的产业上;由于地区异质性的存在,部分省份产业升级并未达到预期效果。因此,制定新一轮崛起战略措施时,要因地制宜,充分考虑地区异质性,走内涵式发展道路。     

非线性定价的福利再分配效应研究——基于非对称双寡头市场的分析

较之"线性定价","非线性定价"在社会福利方面的优势被现有理论反复证明。在肯定"非线性定价"方式能够改进社会总福利的同时,指出并不是每一个市场主体的福利水平都能够通过"非线性定价"方式得到改进。通过建立模型、计算和比较分析,提出了在上述两种情况下,"非线性定价"可能会对特定的市场主体产生"福利剥夺",从而出现福利再分配效应。     

农业科技推广促进农业高校村干部培训教育工作的研究

农业科技推广是农业高校实现产学研紧密结合的桥梁和纽带,是加速农业科技进步、促进农民增收的重要途径。研究农业科技示范基地建设、科技培训等科技推广活动对农村干部培训教育的促进作用,对提高村干部素质、带动村民共同富裕有着重要的意义。     

农地流转的经济效应及其空间溢出——基于“三化”发展的视角

利用2005—2010年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的农地流转、"三化"发展与经济发展数据,构建了考虑空间因素的计量模型,验证了农地流转的经济效应及其空间溢出。主要研究结论如下:农地流转通过影响工业化、农业现代化和农村劳动力转移间接促进地区经济增长,并且跨期内存在空间效应、本期内没有空间效应;本地区的经济发展对周边地区的农地流转强度存在较强的空间依赖;农地流转对粮食主产区、粮食主销区的经济增长具有不同的空间效应,在粮食主产区的农地流转对地区经济增长具有更强的直接和间接拉动效应,而粮食主销区农地流转的影响则相对较弱。     

属性重要程度的测量方法及比较研究

属性重要程度的测量对于数据库的压缩和综合评价都是非常重要的。属性重要程度的测量根据数据库形式的不同有不同方法：粗糙集理论、信息增益技术；在单向有序列联资料下的以秩效应为标准的测量方法和改进的秩和法。改进的秩和法不仅分析了属性的重要程度，而且其结果还可以进行多方面的统计分析。具有较高的实用价值。