返乡农民工职业梯次流动研究——以安徽三市调查为例

利用2011年安徽三市对返乡农民工进行的调查资料,考察了农民工在流动过程中和返乡以后的梯次流动。农民工不仅在流动的过程中实现了职业的梯次流动,在返乡以后也会实现职业的梯次流动。农民工的个人特征和流动经历对农民工返乡前的职业梯次流动有显著影响,农民工的个人特征、流动经历、家庭条件和政策支持力度都会对农民工返乡后实现职业梯次流动有显著影响。     

Female labour force participation and labour saving gadgets

Abstract

We show under what conditions women would migrate out of the household sector into formal sector jobs, in response to increased ability to use labour saving household gadgets, which raise the productivity of female labour engaged in household tasks. We model a small open economy with three outputs: one labour-intensive manufactured export (cloth), one capital-intensive intermediate good (gadgets) and one non-traded ‘household-sector good’ (meals) which requires both female labour and household gadgets for production. A terms-of-trade improvement capturing greater world demand for labour-intensive manufactured exports enables greater adoption of labour-saving household gadgets in response to changing relative prices. If the elasticity of substitution between female labour and household gadgets exceeds a threshold, this will result in women migrating from the household to formal sector employment. What matters is not the actual date of invention of these labour-saving appliances (female labour force participation may not grow significantly until long after) but their increased adoption by the small economy in response to changing relative prices.     

Macroeconomic determinantsof workers' remittances: Hostversus home country's economic conditions

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of worker's remittances. Variance decompositions, impulse response functions and Granger causality tests derived from a vector error correction model are used to test if remittances are affected by the macroeconomic conditions of the host (remittance sending) or home (remittance receiving) country. Data from Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Mexico and the US are used. The results indicate that remittances respond more to changes in the macroeconomic conditions of the host country, than to changes in the macroeconomic conditions of the home country.     

Relationship exit in different legal environments: a cross-cultural analysis

The current work adopts the theoretical perspective of migration models to pinpoint causes that may lead consumers to exit and compares two contrasting cultural contexts, Spain and Venezuela, in the area of car insurance. Whereas in Spain consumers are conscious of, and very much adhere to, the legal requirement to obtain car insurance, Venezuelan legislation is more lenient and consumers consistently fail to comply with compulsory car insurance law. When comparing these commercial settings, we highlight differences in the impact of factors inducing consumers to exit a relationship and factors attracting them to other suppliers.     

The (un)importance of the closure of village shops to rural migration patterns

This study investigates the importance of local service provision for the survival of rural areas. EU Rural Development Policy includes support to village shops as a means to sustain population. Shop closing is assumed to negatively affect migration to and from the area served. We analyse quantitative data on all Swedish village shops and the migration patterns in their market areas before and after shop closure. No significant effect of shop closure on either in- or out-migration can be established, regardless of whether larger or smaller market areas are employed or whether migrants with more urban shopping habits (i.e. commuters and families with children) are excluded. Complementary interviews in three villages where the last shop has closed verify the results.     

The welfare effects of business-cycle-induced immigration

Despite the fact that migration flows have always been closely related to business cycles, the effects of immigration are typically analysed in models without economic fluctuations. In this paper, we find that the welfare consequences of business-cycle-induced immigration are very different from the consequences of permanent immigration in a static economy. Specifically, the welfare effects depend crucially on (1) the return rate of immigrants in downturns and (2) the costs of recruiting immigrants. This has important consequences for the optimal design of temporary immigration programmes to deal with labour shortages.     

Guest worker programs: A theoretical analysis of welfare of the host and source countries*

This article examines the interaction between migration policies of the host and source countries in the context of a model of guest-worker migration. For the host, the objective is to provide low-cost labor for its employers while avoiding illegal immigration. It optimizes over these objectives by setting the time limit of a guest-worker permit. The source country seeks remittance flows and return migration by offering fiscal benefits to returnees. Within this framework, we solve for the Nash equilibrium values of the migration policy instruments and compare them, to the extent possible, with the ones that emerge in a cooperative setting.     

Migrate to Skilled Cities: Human Capital Agglomeration and Urban-to-Urban Migration in China

Despite their increasing size and importance in the regional economy, urban-to-urban migrants in China have received little attention in the literature and are often grouped with rural-to-urban migrants. We attempt to fill this gap by quantifying the patterns and determinants of urban-to-urban migration in China. We first document the sharply diverging spatial distribution of urban migrants and the widening gap in regional ability to attract human capital. Using a skill-based directional migration model, we also find strong preference for destinations with high concentrations of human capital among urban migrants, particularly for provinces in eastern China.     

拉丁美洲养老保险改革及其对中国的启示

自20世纪80年代起拉丁美洲国家对养老保险制度进行改革,将养老保险由国家公共管理改革为私有化运营或多种模式并存的方式。拉丁美洲国家作为发展中国家,其背景、社会条件和经济实力与中国类似,可以作为中国养老保险改革的参照样板;其多样化的改革方式及复杂的改革背景可以作为实践案例对中国的养老保险改革提供参考,对中国正在进行的养老保险改革和新模式创立提供借鉴。本文从国际化的视角选取拉美国家进行案例研究,通过比较分析其各自改革的手段和效果,结合中国的实际情况进行分析借鉴;尤其针对在加速城市化背景下中国长期二元社会突显的大批城乡移民养老保险问题,根据拉美私营化改革结果,借鉴吸收其经验教训,创新性提出中国城乡移民养老保险多元化的经营模式。     

The Role of Migration in the Variety and Quality of Trade: Evidence from Germany

We explore the migration‐trade nexus in the case of Germany over the period 2000–09, disentangling the two dimensions of intra‐industry trade (vertical and horizontal). We find that immigration is positively and significantly related to intra‐industry trade. However, the magnitude and statistical significance of migration's impact on trade are considerably higher for horizontal intra‐industry trade and increase with the difference in the level of development between Germany and the partner countries. This pattern is consistent with the view that information flows between migrant communities and their country of origin may be more important for consumer goods (where trade in varieties prevails) and that this information effect is more important if trading countries are very different.