From mode choice to modal diversion: A new behavioural paradigm and an application to the study of the demand for innovative transport services

We analyse past research efforts that focus on modal diversion in the transport sector, as opposed to the classical mode choice concept, showing the added value of this alternative framework that emerges from the existing scientific literature. The modal diversion paradigm is then used to assess the relative importance of the technical performances of transport services on one hand and of the subjective factors of its potential users on the other, when forecasting the use of a new means among a group of white-collars working in a French research institute. We quantitatively show that multimodal habits and cognitive attitudes have an importance that is in general not negligible for this group, compared to that of the transport services performances, even if only these latter are routinely considered by engineers and planners. Beyond this, we find that the role of self-related factors further increased when the group was less familiar with the technological background and the subsequent operation of the new system, such as in the case of demand responsive transport services.     

基于BP神经网络的运输通道交通方式选择模型研究

通过分析LOGIT模型效用函数构造存在的不足,探讨了利用BP神经网络解决方式划分问题的基本原理。利用BP神经网络良好的非线性逼近能力对LOGIT模型的效用值的确定进行改进,构造了基于BP神经网络的运输通道出行方式选择模型。最后给出了一个算例,详细介绍了基于BP神经网络的交通方式划分模型的建立、训练仿真的过程,预测结果表明该模型对交通方式划分问题不仅有很强的解释性,同时具有很好的可操作性。     

民用航空发动机叶片损伤研究

现阶段中国民用航空发展迅速,为我国人民的出行和物资的运输提供了极大的便利,由于航空运输和路面交通不同,航空运输要求较高,对天气、疫情、民用航空客机的维护状态和空管协调等,需要多方面的协助才能完成交通物流运输。每一个方面都会对客机造成较大影响,导致航班延期或者暂停。所以文章着重研究民用航空发动机叶片损伤对物流的影响。采用有限元分析软件,建模进行静力学分析和模态分析找出最大应力点,并因此制定维修策略,为民航物流的安全性和时效性保驾护航。     

我国地方政府几种管理模式创新及其对东北老工业基地的启示

上海浦东新区作为我国政府管理体制创新的试点单位,在政府职能配置、机构设置和管理制度等方面进行了全面创新;深圳市和重庆市也分别在改革行政管理体制、探索“低成本”行政管理模式上有新的创意。这些经验对东北老工业基地进行政府管理模式创新产生了十分深刻的启示,如精简机构、减少中间管理层次、实现由管理型政府向服务型政府的转变等。     

关于欧式看涨期权的模糊二叉树模型

在二叉树定价模型的发展过程中,人们虽然已在其中加入许多现实因素,如股价发生崩盘,或股票在期权执行期间发放红利等,但对股价运动的不确定性却没有很好的方法进行描述.模糊二叉树模型可以对股价运动的不确定性进行描述,而且可通过求解期望值的方法得出清晰的结果以便决策者进行决策.单期情况下,模型可以求出数值解;多期情况下,则可通过模糊模拟的方法得到结果.     

基于组件机制的窗体间数据传递之实现

文章利用组件机制、模态窗体成功实现了窗体间数据的传递,基于此方法还为C#提供了“数据模块”功能,以实现窗体间数据表的传递。     

人民币升值对农产品进出口的影响(2005-2009年)

本文利用2005年7月-2009年7月的月度数据实证分析发现:人民币升值对农产品进出口的影响主要有升值预期影响和实际升值影响两种。人民币升值对农产品进出口均以促进作用为主,但影响随农产品进出口商对未来人民币升值预期的波动而波动。人民币汇率对农产品进出口预测误差的最大解释力度分别为11.9%和29.6%,农产品进出口均具有较强的稳定性,农产品进口对农产品出口预测误差的最大解释力度为19.5%。为促进农产品进出口的健康发展,政府应保持人民币汇率基本稳定或缓慢升值,科学引导农产品进出口商对人民币的未来升值预期,扶持农产品进出口企业"做强做大",减少人民币汇率波动对农产品进出口的冲击力度和影响幅度。     

摩托车车架的试验模态分析

利用脉冲激励法对某２５０型摩托车车架进行了试验模态分析,并介绍了试验模态分析的方法和设备;所得模态分析结果可为车架的结构设计及整车的振动分析提供依据。     

Transferia: solving local pain or bringing global gain?

ABSTRACT

The sustainability of container transferia, a specific type of intermodal terminals located in the vicinity of ports, is analysed in an external cost evaluation. This concept enables transporting large amounts of containers from a port to a transferium, outside the most congested area, by high-frequency barge or rail transport. From this point onwards, the transport is executed by truck or intermodal. The paper presents a case study of maritime-based container transport in Belgium. A geographic information systems-based model compares transport alternatives, regarding their societal impact. The findings suggest that when trucks perform the hinterland transport to transferia instead of direct truck transport to the port, the production of external costs decreases in the port area, but remains stable in the hinterland. However, when intermodal chains can replace these truck services to the transferia, external costs remain limited in the port area, but also decrease in the hinterland in most cases.