中国进口与经济增长关系的区域差异分析

利用面板数据对中国东、中、西部的进口额和GDP增长关系进行的实证研究。在短期内，GDP增长对进口额影响最小是中部地区，在长期，西部GDP增长对进口额影响最大。中国经济增长对拉动世界经济增长起了十分重要的作用，中国经济增长减速也会影响全球经济。     

Regional job-turnover and industrial policy. a note on a potential time pattern of regional industrial policies and their job effects - the case of the german city-state of bremen

Many regions have experienced long-run economic fluctuations generated by the life cycles of their dominant industrial clusters. During the downswings in the 1970s and 1980s, proactive structural policies were typically launched in German regions to combat job losses in their core clusters and to create new jobs in new industries. With respect to the German State of Bremen, this paper provides empirical evidence of: (1) a long-run regional downswing; (2) the potential job effects of proactive regional industrial policy programmes in terms of increasing regional employment, by safeguarding jobs in the regional core industries and creating new jobs in new growth industries; and (3) a time pattern in the job effects, which are related to the different generations of programmes.     

Orange County Bankruptcy: Financial Contagion in the Municipal Bond and Bank Equity Markets

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non‐Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected.     

企业控制机制:控制权争夺的边界和效应

公司兼并和收购市场中企业控制权机机制、控制权争夺的价值、控制权争夺的福利效应、大股东在公司控制权争夺中对公司政策产生影响。外部性排除了负有义务的股东完全取得接管收益的可能性,无论控制权争夺的结果如何,股东财富在控制权争夺其间是增加的。从股东的福利效应方面来说,控制权争夺的失败也就是股东财富的损失。大股东提高了预期利润,并且他们所占股份越多,则提高越大。董事会的失误导致了敌意接管的出现,可由公司控制的外部市场对董事会的疏忽作用进行弥补。     

Characterizations of negative multinomial distributions based on conditional distributions

In this paper characterizations of negative multinomial distributions based on conditional distributions have been studied.     

企业年金入市对我国资本市场的影响

本文主要论述了企业年金入市时我国资本市场的影响,包括:为资本市场的发展提供长期而稳定的资金来源、促进 资本市场的稳定以及整合各类金融机构。     

A note on the determination of A-optimal type block designs under fixed and mixed effects models

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating a selected set of contrasts between v treatments using a block design consisting of b blocks of size k. Traditionally, the construction of A-optimal block designs for such situations has been carried out assuming a fixed effects model. In this paper, we show that A-optimal designs constructed under a fixed effects model are robust in the sense that these designs have maximal minimal efficiency when considered among all available designs and under all possible mixed effects models. AMS 1991 subject classifications: Primary 62K05; Secondary 62K10     

Blocked-Error-R 2: A Conceptually Improved Definition of the Proportion of Explained Variance in Models Containing Loops or Correlated Residuals

Bentler and Raykov (2000, Journal of Applied Psychology 85: 125–131), and Jöreskog (1999a, http://www.ssicentral.com/lisrel/column3.htm, 1999b http://www.ssicentral. com/lisrel/column5.htm) proposed procedures for calculating R ² for dependent variables involved in loops or possessing correlated errors. This article demonstrates that Bentler and Raykov’s procedure can not be routinely interpreted as a “proportion” of explained variance, while Jöreskog’s reduced-form calculation is unnecessarily restrictive. The new blocked-error-R ² (beR ²) uses a minimal hypothetical causal intervention to resolve the variance-partitioning ambiguities created by loops and correlated errors. Hayduk (1996) discussed how stabilising feedback models – models capable of counteracting external perturbations – can result in an acceptable error variance which exceeds the variance of the dependent variable to which that error is attached. For variables included within loops, whether stabilising or not, beR ² provides the same value as Hayduk’s (1996) loop-adjusted-R ². For variables not involved in loops and not displaying correlated residuals, beR ² reports the same value as the traditional regression R ². Thus, beR ² provides a conceptualisation of the proportion of explained variance that spans both recursive and nonrecursive structural equation models. A procedure for calculating beR ² in any SEM program is provided.     

煤炭资源型城市聚集经济与城市化水平研究

运用可变权系数综合评价模型对2002年中国煤炭资源型城市城市化水平进行测度;基于1999～2002年度煤炭城市面板数据,应用随机效应模型估计煤炭城市聚集经济水平;结果表明,我国煤炭城市城市空间经济结构效率和其城市化水平并不具有正相关性,许多城市化水平相对较高的煤炭城市的聚集经济较差,并没有显示出城市化经济的优势.     

债务融资的治理效应:理论分析与实证检验

首先就西方财务学关于债务治理效应的理论进行了综述，然后采用中国上市公司的经验数据，对债务融资比例与企业绩效指标的关系进行了检验，得出了债务治理效应不佳的结论。这一结论似乎与西方财务学对债务治理效应的主流分析不符。通过分析其中的现实原因，就如何改善中国企业的债务治理效应，提出了相应的政策建议。