基于物元理论的军工科研项目虚拟组织及合作伙伴选择方法

军工科研项目的运作需要解决两个问题:建立何种组织结构?组织结构的成员如何选择?文章首先指出了军工科研项目运作的阶段任务,进一步以物元理论为基础,构建了军工科研项目虚拟组织——物元蛛网协模型(MECCM)和合作伙伴选择方法——优度评价方法。最后,以某军工研究所承担的军方项目×××为案例,对所提出的方法进行了实际应用。     

CECL: Timely Loan Loss Provisioning and Bank Regulation

We investigate how provisioning models interact with bank regulation to affect banks' risk-taking behavior. We study an accuracy versus timeliness trade-off between an incurred loss model (IL) and an expected loss model (EL) such as current expected credit loss model or International Financial Reporting Standards 9. Relative to IL, even though EL improves efficiency by prompting earlier corrective action in bad times, it induces banks to originate either safer or riskier loans. Trading off ex post benefits versus ex ante real effects, we show that more timely information under EL enhances efficiency either when banks are insufficiently capitalized or when regulatory intervention is likely to be effective. Conversely, when banks are moderately capitalized and regulatory intervention is sufficiently costly, switching to EL impairs efficiency. From a policy perspective, our analysis highlights the roles that regulatory capital and the effectiveness of regulatory intervention play in determining the economic consequences of provisioning models. EL spurs credit supply and improves financial stability in economies where intervening in banks' operations is relatively frictionless and/or regulators can tailor regulatory capital to incorporate information about credit losses.     

Maximum likelihood estimation based on the Laplace approximation for p2 network regression models

The class of p₂ models is suitable for modeling binary relation data in social network analysis. A p₂ model is essentially a regression model for bivariate binary responses, featuring within‐dyad dependence and correlated crossed random effects to represent heterogeneity of actors. Despite some desirable properties, these models are used less frequently in empirical applications than other models for network data. A possible reason for this is due to the limited possibilities for this model for accounting for (and explicitly modeling) structural dependence beyond the dyad as can be done in exponential random graph models. Another motive, however, may lie in the computational difficulties existing to estimate such models by means of the methods proposed in the literature, such as joint maximization methods and Bayesian methods. The aim of this article is to investigate maximum likelihood estimation based on the Laplace approximation approach, that can be refined by importance sampling. Practical implementation of such methods can be performed in an efficient manner, and the article provides details on a software implementation using R . Numerical examples and simulation studies illustrate the methodology.     

数字经济如何赋能全要素能源效率提升?

依据2011-2019年省级面板数据,检验数字经济对全要素能源效率的影响及作用机制,结果显示：数字经济显著提升了全要素能源效率,且在区域、时段和资源禀赋方面存在差异。技术创新和产业结构升级是其重要传导机制。鉴于此,需进一步完善数字基础设施建设,推动数字经济和实体经济深度融合;鼓励不同区域发挥好比较优势,实现数字经济差异化发展;大力推进产业数字化和数字产业化,助推产业结构升级,进一步赋能全要素能源效率提升。     

从机会窗口视角看音王集团的发展

后发企业在经济上行时可以利用机会窗口有效扩张,在经济下行时抓住机会通过“窗口期”赶超领先企业。论文以音王集团为例,基于机会窗口的视角,从制度、技术和需求三个维度,分析其发展过程中的机会窗口以及与窗口相匹配的创新发展战略。     

固定资产减值与折旧会计处理探讨

本文在阐述固定资产减值与折旧性质的基础上,绘制流程图展示固定资产减值与折旧的核算程序,并运用图表反映固定资产减值的计提、转回与折旧的计算过程,形象直观,便于理解与操作,以期对会计人员进行固定资产减值和折旧核算提供帮助。     

Sectoral linkages of foreign direct investment firms to the Czech economy

Foreign direct investments (FDI) influence the industrial structure of the host economy through linkages to the domestic economy. Firms may use intermediate goods produced by either domestic or foreign firms, and sell their products to either domestic or foreign customers. The resulting change in the industrial structure of the indigenous economy is analysed in a panel regression for the case of the Czech Republic. The results show that linkages have a strong influence on the sectoral composition of the indigenous economy, supporting the development of indigenous manufacturing and labour-intensive industry.     

Wealth Effects on Self-Insurance and Self-Protection against Monetary and Nonmonetary Losses

This paper considers the wealth effects on self-insurance and self-protection activities against possible losses of monetary wealth such as properties and nonmonetary wealth such as health. Increased initial income or monetary wealth decreases the demand for self-insurance against monetary wealth loss under the decreasing absolute risk aversion assumption, and has an ambiguous effect on self-protection. However, increased initial monetary wealth increases both self-insurance and self-protection against health loss, explaining empirical trends, if wealth and health are complements. When multiple self-insurance activities against both types of losses are considered, the effect of an increase in initial monetary wealth on self-insurance against health loss remains the same, but the effect on self-insurance against wealth loss depends on the preferences. JEL Classification No: D81, G22     

Bond Option Valuation for Non‐Markovian Interest Rate Processes

The standard method for valuing a European option on a bond portfolio is developed by Jamshidian. He shows that under certain circumstances the payoff from a bond option can be expressed as a portfolio of payoffs on discount bond options, allowing the option to be valued as a portfolio of options. A limitation of this approach is that it cannot be applied to non‐Markovian interest rate processes. This paper develops a method for the valuation of a European option on a bond portfolio that can be applied to both Markovian and non‐Markovian interest rate processes.     

Are All Rivals Affected Equally by Bond Rating Downgrades?

We use revisions in analysts' earnings forecasts to examine how the bad news associated with a bond rating downgrade gets transferred from the downgraded company to its rivals. In general, we find that stock analysts revise their earnings expectations downward for rivals of companies with downgraded debt. However, the significance of the revision is limited to rivals of downgraded companies with non-investment grade debt only. For the rivals of companies with investment grade debt, we find no significant forecast revisions. We hypothesize that this differential impact is due to differing levels of market visibility. This is consistent with our finding that downgraded companies with non-investment grade debt are followed by significantly fewer stock analysts. Apparently not all rivals are affected equally by bond rating downgrades.