中国城市服务业区域间溢出效应与反馈效应分析

本文首先通过区域间投入产出表,分析了中国东北、东部、中部、西北和西南五大地区服务业的溢出效应,然后通过两区域投出产出模型衡量服务业地区间的和地区内部相互的反馈效应。研究发现：东部地区是区域间经济交流的最大收益者,所受到的溢出效应最大;而西北地区是最小收益者,所受到的溢出效应最小;沿海地区区域内的服务业联系要强于内地;内地对沿海的服务业外溢效应要远远高于沿海对内地的;与内陆相比,沿海地区服务业的发展更容易受到外界影响,同时商业运输业比其它服务业的外向性特征更加突出;服务业的各种效应程度小于工业,而大于农业。     

Drucker’s insights on market orientation and innovation: implications for emerging areas in high-technology marketing

In 1954, Drucker boldly declared that organizations have only two basic functions, marketing and innovation. While true for any organization, this insight is particularly pertinent for technology-based businesses. The complicated environment surrounding high-tech companies creates a great need for sophisticated marketing. Yet these companies continue to have under-developed competencies in marketing and in understanding customer needs. This essay explores Drucker’s insights with respect to two particularly salient issues for high-tech companies: developing and implementing a market orientation and break-through innovations. We review Drucker’s insights and synthesize them with the scholarly research on these issues. Finally, we discuss three emerging areas in high-tech marketing where academics and managers could build on Drucker’s insights to guide future research and practice: market driving, customer co-creation, and corporate social responsibility. These illustrative examples highlight that even today, Drucker’s writings continue to offer remarkable guidance to scholars and managers who are willing to take the time to reflect, understand, and incorporate his insights in the unique context of high-tech industries. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

发达地区政府投资对民间投资的影响分析——以浙江省为例

本文以浙江省为例,利用浙江改革开放后30年的数据资料,对发达地区政府投资和民间投资进行协整建模分析,分析结果表明,发达地区政府投资和民间投资之间存在惟一的长期稳定的均衡关系,从长期来看政府投资对于民间投资具有正向的促进作用。脉冲响应分析的结果表明,无论是从短期还是长期来看,政府投资对民间投资都有正向的挤入效应,不过这种挤入效应较弱。     

被忽视的真实力量:旅游非正规就业及其拉动效应

文章以我国经济结构调整为背景,指出当GDP增长率降低到8%以下时我国面临着很大的就业压力。通过文献的梳理,文章说明了在此期间,发展旅游业是解决结构性失业最有效的途径之一。但是,目前的大部分研究都只是把注意力放在了旅游正规部门的就业及其拉动效应上,而忽视了旅游非正规部门的就业。文章详细回顾了国内学者对旅游就业乘数的估算以及他们的结果与WTTC(世界旅行和旅游理事会)之间的差别,回答了这些差别产生的原因,指出WTTC低估了2001年之后的旅游就业效应。在上述基础上,文章利用差值法计算了旅游非正规就业的总量及其结构拉动效应。研究发现,从非正规就业的部门结构角度看,旅游就业的拉动效应远远高于WTTC和国内学者此前计算的间接就业效应;在2011年,它吸纳了2040.40万人在该行业工作,乘数效应达到9.98。因此,在结构调整时期,政府部门应该更加重视旅游非正规部门对就业的功能性作用。     

How long does celebrity meaning transfer last? Delayed effects and the moderating roles of brand experience,celebrity liking,and age

Extending previous research on celebrity endorsements, the study investigates whether the meaning of celebrities is transferred to endorsed brands and how transfer effects develop over time. Additionally, the moderating roles of brand experience, celebrity liking, and consumers’ age are investigated. The hypothesized effects are modeled using a propositional learning approach with an experimental repeated-measures design (panel data). Results confirm the assumed meaning transfer effect. In addition, the effects appear to be substantially stronger after about a week indicating some type of sleeper effect. Furthermore, the effects increase with increasing brand experience and celebrity liking. Adolescent consumers are not differently affected when compared to adults and controlled for the differing levels of brand experience. Results are discussed in light of propositional learning theory. Future areas of research are proposed.     

Improving integrated marketing communications practices: A comparison of objectives and results

Marketing managers face increasing demands for effectiveness measurement including more rigorous assessment of the match between marketing communication objectives and results. This study provides an analysis of current objective-setting practices and a comparison with past industry practices by applying a traditional communication task model to marketing communications award competition entries. The results indicate that there is still room for improvement in communication objective-setting practices. Suggestions for improving these practices include (1) making a commitment to assessment, (2) offering actionable objective-setting education, (3) increasing attention to the impact of new media, and (4) expanding the role of agencies. The authors conclude that the study of the objectives and results aspect of marketing communication management will create new opportunities for integrated marketing communications scholars and practitioners to increase the effectiveness of promotional activities.     

Does sustainable intensification of maize production enhance child nutrition? Evidence from rural Tanzania

Food insecurity, child malnutrition, and land degradation remain persistent problems in sub‐Saharan Africa. Agricultural sustainable intensification (SI) has been proposed as a possible solution to simultaneously address these challenges. Yet there is little empirical evidence on if agricultural management practices and inputs that contribute to SI from an environmental standpoint do indeed improve food security or child nutrition. We use three waves of data from the nationally‐representative Tanzania National Panel Survey to analyze the child nutrition effects of rural households’ adoption of farming practices that can contribute to the SI of maize production. We group households into four categories based on their use of three soil fertility management practices on their maize plots: “Nonadoption”; “Intensification” (use of inorganic fertilizer only); “Sustainable” (use of organic fertilizer, maize–legume intercropping, or both); and “SI” (joint use of inorganic fertilizer with organic fertilizer and/or maize–legume intercropping). The results from multinomial endogenous treatment effects models with the Mundlak–Chamberlain device suggest that use of practices in the “SI” category is associated with improvements in children's height‐for‐age and weight‐for‐age z‐scores relative to “Nonadoption,” particularly for children aged 25–59 months. These effects appear to come through improvements in both crop income and productivity.     

中国汇率制度改革初探

中国在世界经济中举足轻重的地位决定我国的汇率制度改革会受到多方关注。本文基于中国汇率制度改革的进程和中国政府在汇率改革中的作用,通过对一些金融危机研究的分析,认为适用更宽的汇率浮动区间也许是中国当前汇率制度改革较好的选择。     

近十年中国建设用地扩张空间特征--基于与固定资本和二三产业就业人数的比较分析

研究目的：利用1999—2008年分省固定资本存量、二三产业就业人数和建设用地面积统计数据,估计、比较不同生产要素的空间自相关系数,揭示近年中国建设用地扩张的空间特征。研究方法：应用空间计量分析、聚类分析、比较分析等方法研究建设用地扩张的空间自相关性及影响。研究结果：（1）2000—2008年建设用地扩张全局Moran’s I指数达到0.3023,显著高于固定资本和二三产业就业人数,说明建设用地扩张存在显著的空间自相关性,区域间建设用地规模差异持续扩大;（2）空间计量分析结果显示,研究建设用地与经济增长关系时,需考虑空间变量的影响;（3）局部空间自相关检验和聚类分析结果显示,建设用地扩张显著地表现为中部、北部地区低—低集群和东部地区高—高集群。研究结论：（1）不同区域土地利用比较优势差异、土地要素的不可流动性和以国家计划为主的土地发展权配置方式是建设用地空间格局动态变化与固定资本和二三产业就业人数产生差异的主要原因;（2）国家应重视土地发展权集中配置可能引发的区域发展过度失衡、局部地区生态压力过大等潜在风险,改进建设用地总量控制手段。     

利率市场化对中国财政政策效应的影响——-基于动态随机一般均衡的研究

参照Ｔｓｕｎｇ－ｗｕＨｏ（２００１）假设政府财政支出的目标是实现居民效用最大化,将政府支出作为内生变量纳入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,分析和预测利率市场化进程中,均衡利率上升对中国财政政策效应的影响。模型的数值波动模拟显示,均衡利率上升能有效改善经济结构,减小产出和通胀面对技术冲击、财政与货币政策冲击的波动。脉冲响应结果显示,积极的财政政策对投资和消费存在挤出效应,但是短期内能够有效的促进经济增长。利率市场化进程中均衡利率上升使得消费和投资面对政府财政政策冲击时的挤出效应增强,但由于利率上升带来经济结构的调整,短期内政府支出冲击反而能更有效地刺激经济增长,长期内对产出的负向影响并没有明显增强。