Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers in a collective inquiry based on self-organizing, generative and reflexive making and dialogue. How participants engaged, from responding to the invitation to take part, as well as their practical and discursive encounters with one another during the event, threw up similarities and differences between the two fields. We present nine themes that capture the links and spaces between design and scenarios, yet suggest that they are not a straightforward overlap or a simple relationship, but rather a range of interactions between the fields, including feeding in, bridging, tension and repulsion. The paper's contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.     

Experimental evidence on the resilience of a cap & trade system for land consumption in Germany

The German government has committed to substantially limiting future land consumption. Among the most prominently discussed policy instruments is the implementation of a cap & trade system for land consumption, in which a limited amount of certificates is allocated to and traded by municipalities. Since these certificates would be a prerequisite for conducting building projects, this system is expected to reduce urban sprawl and foster the efficient allocation of land consumption projects. While previous empirical studies have supported these projections, the potential fragility of a cap & trade system in the case of macroeconomic shocks has not been considered. In three laboratory experiments, we simulate the impact of economic and budgetary crises within a cap & trade scheme for land consumption. We find that a market-based system succeeds in compensating macroeconomic disturbances with only minor welfare losses. Certificate prices in auctions and trading are somewhat more volatile before shocks, yet normalize afterwards. Trading volumes and the specifics of project realizations remain largely unaffected. Unrelated to the macroeconomic shocks, auction and market prices persistently diverge, leading to income redistributions to the state. Overall, our evidence supports the introduction of a market-based certificate scheme to reduce land consumption in Germany due to its resilience against potential shocks.     

How collaborative routines improve dynamic innovation capability and performance in tourism industry? A path-dependent learning model

Current results of direct relationships between collaboration and innovation capability on performance in tourism contexts are inconsistent. This research is to uncover roles of collaborative routines on promoting relationships between internal and service innovation capabilities as two distinct mechanisms, and performance. The study also examines the contingent effect of knowledge search on performance. Survey data from 181 samples from the Thai tourism industry are gathered for analyses. Findings demonstrate that knowledge search and internal innovation capability have a direct impact on performance, whereas the effect of service innovation capability on performance is significant only in the presence of collaborative routines.     

The Politics of Property in Planning: Hezbollah's Reconstruction of Haret Hreik (Beirut,Lebanon) as Case Study

This research looks at post‐2006‐war reconstruction of the southern suburbs of Beirut under the auspices of Hezbollah (the Islamic resistance movement in Lebanon). The project was widely acclaimed as an alternative to current neoliberal planning practices in the Middle East and beyond. Based on a critical reading of the conception of property issues in this planning project, the article argues that this reconstruction presents a new geometry or alternative to the mainstream configuration of neoliberal urbanism, rather than a departure from its precepts. The reason for this is that the adopted language of property corresponds closely with the conception of property advocated by neoliberal planning, one that enshrines private, individual ownership as sacred and desirable and that works to strengthen its model in the city. I further argue that the ‘neoliberal planning regime’ within which Hezbollah's urban intervention occurs is not accidental; rather, it is necessary for the party's control of this space's future and for consolidating its territory in the city. It is hence expected that Hezbollah's planning in the city will produce the same decried effects as neoliberal planning elsewhere in the city rather than usher an innovative, progressive model of planning.     

A strategic planning model for the railway system accident rescue problem

The present study examines the location of emergency rescue problems for urban ambulance and railway emergency systems. The proposed model considers probabilistic rescue demand, independent busy fractions of ambulances, and the corresponding risk levels in railway segments. We formulate the proposed model using fuzzy multi-objective programming and solve it using a generic algorithm and a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II. Computation results are analyzed by applying the model to a real-world Taiwan railway system. Analytical results demonstrate that a proper adjustment of the rescue resource location improves rescue effectiveness for railway rescue and urban medical service demand.     

中日农村医疗保险制度比较研究

纵向比较分析中日两国农村医疗保险制度的发展历程,从覆盖范围、筹资方式、补偿方式、资金收支情况等方面横向比较中日两国的农村医疗保险制度,探讨中日两国农村医疗保险制度的优缺点,为我国完善新型农村合作医疗制度提供相关建议。     

A fuzzy goal programming approach to analyse sustainable development goals of India

Energy policy, environmental planning and economic development play a key role in sustainable development. Sustainable development requires suitable and strategic policies satisfying multiple and conflicting objectives. Fuzzy goal programming (FGP) is a well-known approach in multi-criteria decision-making for its practical application. In this article, a FGP approach is proposed to analyse environmental, energy and sustainability goals of India by the year 2030 with reference to the key economic sectors of India. The presented model analyses the improvement opportunities, requirement of efforts and implementation of the sustainable development plans. Numerical illustration is also provided for validation and application of the proposed model.     

Assessing land use plan implementation: Bridging the performance-conformance divide

The assessment of land use plan implementation is a contentious issue. The debate centers on whether the crucial evaluation element is conformance of development to plan directives or alternatively, plan performance, i.e. the degree to which the plan is actually used. An analytic framework combining both conformance and performance in the evaluation of (regional) land use plans is applied to the case of the Central District Plan in Israel. Qualitative and quantitative simulation methods are exploited. Qualitative analysis reveals that both performance and conformance are greater than indicated by non-contextualized, numeric evaluations. Additionally, high conformance does not necessarily imply good plan performance. Quantitative simulation suggests that plan performance with respect to land values and densities is initially pronounced as expectations for development are subdued but subsequently tends to wane merging with the counterfactual trend. Findings imply that plan assessment needs to consider the transaction costs of land use re-designation and actors’ perceptions of the probability that plan amendments will be approved. These perceptions differ across actors as a function of the political influence that they wield.     

ANSI认可标准制定组织以及美国国家标准批准程序

美国作为市场化程度高、技术水平先进的国家，其标准化管理体制和运行模式遵循了标准化的自身规律。能够快速响应不断变化的市场需求、政府监管的需要，同时又能支持技术创新、促进经济、贸易发展，提升美国的竞争实力。美国国家标准是自愿性的，并且由美国国家标准学会（ANSI）认可的标准制定组织制定。本文分析了ANSI的基本情况、ANSI认可标准制定组织的管理程序、美国国家标准批准和废止的条件及程序。希冀对中国的标准化改革有所借鉴。     

上海合作组织命运共同体:一项研究议题

构建上海合作组织命运共同体是中国政府提出的关于促进上海合作组织长远发展的重大倡议。由于上海合作组织命运共同体理念的提出时日尚短,学术界关于该理念的研究尚未全面启动。要使上海合作组织命运共同体理念成为一个有效的研究议题,不仅需要明晰上海合作组织命运共同体的具体内涵,而且需要将其纳入国际共同体、国际组织和大国外交等议题的研究,提炼出一些具有普遍性的理论命题。就攸关上海合作组织命运共同体构建的重大问题而言,至少需要回答上海合作组织命运共同体提出的理论与实践意义、上海合作组织命运共同体构建应遵循的基本路径、上海合作组织命运共同体构建的基础和条件、上海合作组织命运共同体构建面临的挑战与障碍、学术界能为上海合作组织命运共同体构建提供的对策建议等重大问题。在此过程中,学术界还需将其与周边命运共同体、人类命运共同体等家族相似性的概念纳入同一研究视域,以澄清上海合作组织命运共同体的内涵与外延,辨识上海合作组织命运共同体演变的动力与机制,并从理论层面提炼上海合作组织发展经验的特殊性与普遍性。