未来三十年我国及省际人口变动趋势

分析了我国人口的变动特点,并对未来三十年我国及省际人口的变动趋势作了预测,论述了我国未来人口的空间分布变动特点。     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.     

Partial International Coordination in the Great Fish War

This study extends the great fish war model of Levhari and Mirman [Levhari, D. and Mirman, L. (1980) Bell Journal of Economics 11: 322–344] by incorporating a multiple country context into the model and investigates the existence of a partial coordination Nash equilibrium. First, findings of this paper suggest that a partial coordination scheme is sustainable only in limited cases. Any coalition that has more than two member countries cannot be sustained. Second, the existence and the number of coordinating countries depend critically on the magnitude of the biological and preference parameters. Finally, if the coalition is assumed to be a dominant player, there always exist one or two welfare-improving sustainable coalitions and the size of the sustainable coalitions depends on the parameters of the problem.     

The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure

Air transportation is a key strategic asset in that it provides access to markets and thereby enables the economic development of nations. Thus, in order to maintain their competitiveness in a global economy, countries must invest in air transportation infrastructure to ensure their ability to meet current and future demand for aviation services. The objective of this paper is to develop and illustrate a methodology for evaluating the strategic value of air transportation infrastructure, in particular the benefits associated with the ability to react quickly to changes in the market. The hypothesis is that by recognizing and taking advantage of this strategic value, it may be possible to design better policies for aviation infrastructure delivery.The methodology developed here uses system dynamics to model different strategies for infrastructure delivery. These strategies are defined by three variables: the amount of capacity increase, the time to deliver the capacity and the congestion threshold that triggers the need for capacity delivery. Monte Carlo simulation is used to take into account multiple sources of uncertainty. The model shows that a strategy of capacity delivery based on small increments and short response times can yield more benefits than strategies that consider large capacity increases and long response times. Furthermore, in the specific airport example considered here, it was found that a congestion threshold of 75% should be the trigger for capacity enlargements if strategies based on small capacity increments and 1 or 5 years to increase capacity are considered. The lesson for decision-makers is that congestion delays must be addressed with foresight.     

五个一体化构筑浙中城市群发展平台

随着工业化、城市化进程的加速,特别是全球经济一体化进程的纵深推进,城市群竞争成为国际经济竞争的重要表现形式。建设强大的城市群已成为经济全球化背景下提升国际竞争力的关键所在。浙江中部地区城市群的崛起,对浙江中西部地区,乃至浙江全省经济社会的发展将产生深远的影响。文章通过对浙中城市群发展条件及现状的剖析,提出五个一体化的具体对策。     

南岳旅游产业结构调整及其对策研究

从南岳旅游产业结构的现状特点及其存在的主要问题分析入手，从资源、区位、市场和宏观经济条件等方面阐明了南岳旅游产业结构调整的有利条件，并得出旅游产业结构调整的主要思路是，在透当前神庙朝拜旅游的基础上，着力开拓面向城镇客源的观光、休闲、度假、康体、娱乐等旅游，大力发展入境旅游。围绕这一产业结构调整思路，提出了一系列对策与措施。     

长江中游根治洪灾策略与措施的探讨

长江中游是长江自然—经济—社会复合生态系统的重要组成部分,当前洪涝灾害频繁而严重。按照长江洪水发生的自然规律调整好人与自然的关系,改变长期以来舍南保北、以堵为主、重蓄轻泄的做法,实施疏泄为主的防洪策略,并采取相应的工程和非工程措施(如下荆江裁弯、开辟分流洪道、四口建闸、洞庭湖水系南北分流、疏浚河道、南水北调及平垸行洪等),同时配合进行水源生态工程及江河库湖调蓄工程建设,才能根治长江中游洪涝灾害。     

广西乡村──城市转型与协调发展研究

本文揭示了“八五”期间广西乡村──城市转型发展的特征及其地理动力机制．预测未来15—25年内乡村──城乡转型发展的趋势、提出了促进乡村──城市转型与协调发展的一些对策建议。     

Full-cost pricing in the classical competitive process: A model of convergence to long-run equilibrium

In the last 10–15 years a lot of attempts has been devoted to study the calssical process of convergence of market prices toward natural prices. The two forces that one has thought could achieve this target were capital mobility, that determines the dynamics of output, and demand-supply forces, that determine the dynamics of prices. In this article a model of classical competition is proposed in which a full-cost pricing mechanism is adopted in the rule of evolution of market prices. An asymptotical stability result of long-run equilibrium is proved for a two-commodity model with and without a final demand.     

Analysis of Visitor Decision Making System When Visiting Natural Recreation Sites by Multinomial Logit Model

Multinomial Logit Model has analyzed the relationship between the frequency of visits to recreation areas and the motivational factors affecting the visits. Kastro Environment Preserving Site that is located in the Black Sea coast of Marmara region in Turkey, has been chosen as the site for this study. Kastro bay is a natural park that is visited only for recreational visits. The study has been conducted on a photogenic study group due to the proximity factor of Kastro bay close to Istanbul. Kastro bay is a popular recreational park due to its characteristic advantages such as a 200 m wide and approximately 2.5 km long beach and with its high quality vegetation. The vegetation type includes ash tree, oak tree, black pine, sand lily etc. Kastro bay is also the site for the Mediterranean seals (Monachus-monachus) which are at the level of extinction. Approximately 50,000 visitors visit the region during the months of July and August. It has been concluded that there is high direct correlation between the frequency of visits and the motivational factors. It has been determined that the visits are mostly based on the sea and the ecological tourism.Jel: O13, Q20, Q26, Q51, Q56, Q57