Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.     

论如何遏制大学生不当消费

当前大学生存在过分追求物质享受、志趣媚俗、品位低下、花钱无度等不当消费现象,教育部门应注重经常性教育引导,增强学生自警自控力;强化多重管理机制,增强学生自我约束力;注重营造良好的校园环境,增强学生的凝聚力。     

我国自然垄断产业的民营化改革

在自然垄断产业,国有企业垄断经营低效是一个世界性的问题。自然垄断产业在一定范围内具有可竞争性,即使是在不可竞争性的领域,也可以通过建立潜在的竞争性替代机制,形成模拟竞争环境。自然垄断产业的可竞争性为民营化提供了可能。自然垄断产业民营化就是通过产权制度变革,提高垄断企业的效率。     

跨国垄断在中国:现状、影响及规制

该文通过统计数据和案例分析认为跨国垄断已经在中国发生，并指出存在着两种不同类型的跨国垄断，即跨国企业整体垄断某个行业和单个跨国企业垄断整个行业；进而分析了两种不同形态的垄断对经济造成的不良影响。最后，探讨了如何防范和规制跨国垄断，认为防范跨国垄断要从多方面着手，除了最重要的竞争政策手段以外，还必须在反垄断法中加强对跨国垄断的规制。     

我国外汇储备：安全性、成本风险及对策

我国外汇储备狭义上的安全性，即外汇储备资产本身的安全令人担忧。我国已经为高额的外汇储备付出巨大成本和承担了很高的风险，同时，高额外汇储备也对我国经济发展产生了一系列负面影响和风险。从这个意义上来看，我国外汇储备的现状已成为威胁金融安全的一个重要隐患。因此，我国外汇储备政策的调整已经刻不容缓。     

货币政策的目标、效能与协调运用

货币政策的目标是多元化的，如价格稳定、经济增长等。通过货币政策的调整可以发挥其调节经济的效能。在货币政策协调过程中，运用好与其它社会经济政策的关系，对于提高宏观调控的科学性大有裨益。     

追随客户与外资银行进入：中国的证据与政策含义

借鉴国外同行的分析方法,对追随客户假说在中国的适用性的检验表明：出口、进出口总量和外商直接投资对外资银行的进入存在正向影响,而进口的影响则为负.从政策层面上看,外资银行进入原因的复杂性蕴含着诸多机遇与挑战,而核心则是协调对外贸易政策、外商直接投资政策和金融管制等多种政策工具与手段.     

Simulating the Evolution of the Implied Distribution

Motivated by the implied stochastic volatility literature (Britten–Jones and Neuberger, forthcoming; Derman and Kani, 1997; Ledoit and Santa–Clara, 1998) this paper proposes a new and general method for constructing smile–consistent stochastic volatility models. The method is developed by recognising that option pricing and hedging can be accomplished via the simulation of the implied risk neutral distribution. We devise an algorithm for the simulation of the implied distribution, when the first two moments change over time. The algorithm can be implemented easily, and it is based on an economic interpretation of the concept of mixture of distributions. It can also be generalised to cases where more complicated forms for the mixture are assumed.     

西汉初期“与民休息”政策述论

西汉初期是我国农业经济迅速恢复并达到空前繁荣的时期,这与西汉初期统治集团采取了比较符合实际的"与民休息"的经济政策紧密相关。其时代背景主要是鉴于秦朝实行严刑峻法、横征暴敛政策而亡的历史教训,以及汉初经济崩溃、民生凋敝的实际状况。"与民休息"政策内容丰富,主要包括调整土地关系、赋予军功贵族免役特权、免部分官私奴婢为庶人、减免田税口算徭戍、崇尚节俭和轻刑慎罚等六个方面。"与民休息"的经济政策,将为我们今天解决"三农"问题,发展农业经济,建设社会主义新农村提供有益的借鉴。     

Competition Policy: What are the Costs and Benefits of Measuring its Costs and Benefits?

Summary  Competition authorities are increasingly measuring the effects of their enforcement actions, seeking a robust justification for the proliferation of competition policy. We highlight the importance of identifying the right counterfactual against which to measure effects, and set out the relevant categories of costs and benefits. We then explore how a balance can be struck between the benefits and inherent limitations of these measurement exercises. Relatively crude analyses of cartel action benefits can be sufficient to achieve public legitimacy for competition policy. Assessing the effects of merger and conduct inquiries is often ambiguous, but could be used to improve decision-making processes. Director and Managing Consultant, respectively, at Oxera, Oxford and London. The valuable comments of Fod Barnes, Kerry Hughes and an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors alone.