Should the monetary policy rule be different in a financial crisis?

This article reviews the finding that standard loss functions in output and inflation are higher during discretionary periods than in periods during which monetary policy is described by a rule, such as the Taylor rule. It shows that the finding is consistent with earlier research, but argues that we really do not know if the Taylor rule would have improved performance during the recent financial crisis. The article then considers modifications of policy rules to deal with changes in interest rate spreads, credit aggregates and banks׳ balance sheets.     

Early Smithian economics in the Spanish empire: J. H. Vieytes and colonial policy *

Juan Hipolito Vieytes (1762–1815)was a hero of the May 1810 Revolution in Buenos Aires and one of the early economists in the River Plate area. Although Robert Sidney Smith dismissed Vieytes as a very minor figure in Spanish economic thought, this article attempts to show that Vieytes, an entrepreneur and journalist and only self-taught in political economy, was an early and able follower and divulgator of Smithian economics. He advocated free trade and liberal economic reforms, pointing at the competitiveness of the domestic workshops or ‘popular industry’ in a country with scanty population and extensive and cheap land.     

Can household-based food consumption surveys be used to make inferences about nutrient intakes and inadequacies? A Bangladesh case study

Household Consumption and Expenditures Surveys (HCES) are increasingly being used to make inferences about individual food consumption, despite the fact that they collect food data at only the household level. Usually the analysis assumes that the household’s food is distributed among its members in direct proportion to each member’s share of the household’s total energy requirements; what is referred to as the adult male equivalent (AME) approach. Using the 2011–2012 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey—which collected consumption data for all members of rural households using combined 24-hour recall (24HR) and food weighing methods—this study directly compared probability-based average estimates of intakes, intake gaps, and the prevalence of inadequacies as estimated by the 24HR and those calculated using the AME approach for energy and each of four micronutrients: vitamin A, iron, zinc, and calcium.At the population level, for iron, vitamin A, and calcium, more than 97% of all individuals had the same estimated prevalence of adequate or inadequate nutrient intakes using 24HR and AME-based estimates. In the case of energy and zinc, roughly 77 and 83% of the sample population had identical adequacy statuses, respectively. The magnitude of inadequacies (the nutrient gaps) differed by 8 percentage points for energy and less than 3 percentage points for the four micronutrients. Disaggregating intakes and inadequacies by age groups revealed that the vast majority of variance between the two methods was highly concentrated in the first few years of life. Children 3 years of age and younger constituted 7.5% of the population but had 13.1% of the inconsistencies in intake adequacy status. 54% of children 3 and under had at least one pair of inconsistent prevalence estimates. While there are important differences in the levels of estimated energy and micronutrient intakes using 24HR and the AME-based estimates for children 3 and under, the results are remarkably comparable for the rest of the population.     

A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC

This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee. The paper discusses the scope of the data set, possibilities for extending it, and some potential uses. It offers a preliminary examination of some of the cross‐sectional features of the data.     

The new exchange rate policy in the Asian emerging economies – goodbye trouble,hello comfort?

In this paper, we discuss new aspects of exchange rate policy that can be observed in the Asian emerging economies. In the first place, we show the alternative regimes they may choose and their respective pros and cons. Secondly, we concentrate on the recent strategy of systematic undervaluation of one's currency – figuring prominently among ‘big’ Asian players such as China and India – and the most likely implications of such a strategy for domestic allocation, distribution and stabilization goals. With the background of Germany's experiences in 1969, almost on the eve of the Bretton Woods' system collapse, we model a speculative attack on an undervalued currency in the vein of the Flood–Garber seminal paper from 1984. Now, however, the country in concern (just like India and China) possesses strong rather than weak fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of international reserves, in addition, leads to the question of an ‘optimal management’ of foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies with regard to size and composition. We finally propose a sequence of reforms/policies that should be implemented in those Asian emerging economies on their still long journey to a regime featured by autonomous monetary policy, flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. A brief summary and an outlook for future research close the paper.     

我国上市公司股权结构与现金股利政策关系研究——基于半参数模型的分析

多重委托代理关系的存在使得我国上市公司股权结构与现金股利政策之间的关系极其复杂。选取多个代理变量从不同的角度构建半参数模型,利用函数形式来刻画两者之间的非线性关系。利用我国565家上市公司的数据进行实证研究,结果表明:股权制衡度与现金分红数量之间存在倒"S"形关系,拐点分别在30%和60%左右;前十大股东持股比例与现金分红意愿及分红数量之间均存在明显的倒"U"形关系,拐点分别在60%和80%左右。     

可再生能源发电开发利用及经营情况实证分析——以江苏省为例

江苏省是能源消耗大省,又是资源小省,能源需求增长压力大,能源自给率不足20%。突破能源瓶颈,实现经济和社会发展主要有两个途径：一是节能降耗,二是增加供应。大力发展可再生能源,不失为江苏经济可持续发展的战略选择。     

How Safe Are the Harbors?

Abstract

With the growth of e-commerce has come the need for businesses to provide protection of personal, private data collected from internet users and consumers. The United States has favored a policy of industry self-regulation, while the European Union (EU) has responded to its consumer demands for privacy protection regulations and enforcement. Faced with the critical need for a middle ground, the US has proposed “Safe Harbor Privacy Principles” as a means of compromise with the EU. This article explores the market context of the Safe Harbor Principles, the European reaction, and the probable impact on businesses.     

Shutting up shop: understanding the international exit process in retailing

Internationalisation is a much-studied phenomenon. Exit from international markets has been less analysed. Where it has been studied, most work has been on motives and causes, with relatively little on processes. This article explores the process of international exit in a retail context. It examines the run-up to, announcement of and fall-out from the decision by Marks and Spencer (one of Britain's leading retailers) to close its French stores. The article concludes that understanding the process of market exit is at least as important both for theoretical and practical reasons as understanding the decision to exit or divest. Further research needs to be undertaken on market exit and the processes involved, in order to contribute further to the theory and practice of internationalisation.