苏南现代化建设示范区经济、人口与社会医疗保险——以常熟市居民基本(农村合作)医疗保险为例

经济社会发展、人口老龄化和现代化社会医疗保险制度建设的关系,是当前苏南现代化社会医疗保险制度建设的重大课题。文章基于对常熟市居民基本(农村合作)医疗保险的研究,发现:政策延续与经济发展是以常熟市为代表的苏南现代化建设示范区社会医疗保险制度建设取得改革发展先机的重要因素;持续加深的人口老龄化程度对社会医疗保险基金安全和补偿支出结构的负面冲击已经逐步显现;提高补偿标准和改革支付方式在一定程度上优化了参保居民就诊结构,增强了社会医疗保险的宏观经济保障能力,但长期对提高社会医疗保险制度的宏观经济保障能力的作用非常有限。基于以上研究发现,提出政策建议:通过吸纳外来务工人员以优化参保人群年龄结构是解决人口老龄化挑战的关键;重视疾病预防,特别是慢性病早期预防,加强多部门疾病预防协同合作是应对人口老龄化的重要措施。     

关于构建科学合理的区域人口长寿评价指标体系的尝试

人类社会的长寿水平与其生存发展的生态环境、社会经济等因素有着十分密切的联系。本项研究从影响区域人口长寿的诸多因素出发，用定性与定量相结合的系统分析方法，筛选出若干主要影响因素，采用多指标综合评价的方法，通过权重的量化处理，构建出了一个具有国际通用性的区域人口长寿指数，用以评估各区域的人口长寿化水平。     

Future shock: mega-events in Rio de Janeiro

In preparation for the mega-events of 2014 and 2016, the city of Rio de Janeiro has been going through a permanent shock of agenda, characterised by important urban reengineering projects, population removal and favela (shanty town) pacification. This essay explores the Rio of (sports and other) mega-events and questions the place of the social, in a paradigm marked by futurism and by techno-culture that may be announcing a new political economy: the political economy of mega-events.     

Is the high school dropout rate an increasing function of the proportion of the population in the US cities that is Hispanic? Exploratory evidence

This empirical note seeks to provide preliminary insights into factors that may have influenced the high school dropout rate in the US cities. For some 300-plus cities for the year 2011, OLS estimates reveal that the dropout rate is a decreasing function of both the per cent of the population that is Hispanic and per pupil public education spending at the elementary and secondary levels. In addition, the estimates find that the dropout rate is an increasing function of the per cent of the population that consisted of families with children and that was classified as being at or below the poverty level and the per cent of the population aged 25 years and older that did not have a high school diploma.     

基于优胜劣汰原理的3D打印技术种群演进机理

基于生态学的优胜劣汰原理,应用演化博弈的动态复制方程分析具有竞争关系的两个3D打印技术种群的博弈问题。结果表明:处于同一技术生态系统环境中的两种竞争性3D打印技术种群,由于争夺的资源有限和市场相同,因此博弈中只有具有技术优势的3D打印技术种群才能最终生存下来。     

人才聚集与潜在流失:对北京市信息产业外来从业者的观察和思考

北京市信息产业发展水平和从业人员规模均在全国领先。在北京市信息产业大专及以上学历的就业人口中,外来人口占比近半,居现代服务业各行业之首。在广大从业者中,基层员工的比例高,他们是行业发展的基石。新一代基层的外来从业者扎根北京的压力较大,而人才政策的重点为吸引和扶持行业内的高层次人才。面对IT产业在国际国内的快速发展和激烈的人才竞争,今后北京市需要加大对基层的外来从业者的关注,应对潜在的人才流失风险。     

How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Ethiopia

This study uses household-level panel data on smallholder farmers in Ethiopia to estimate how rural population density (RPD) affects agricultural intensification and productivity. Our results suggest that higher RPD is associated with smaller farm sizes, and has a positive effect on input demand, represented by increased fertilizer use per hectare. Overall, increased input use does not lead to a corresponding increase in staple crop yields, and thus farm income declines as population density increases. This suggests a situation where farmers in areas of high RPD may be stuck in place, unable to sustainably intensify in the face of rising RPD and declining farm sizes.     

Cost-effectiveness of prasugrel in a US managed care population

Abstract

Objective:

Decision-makers in the US may be interested in the applicability to their populations of cost-effectiveness results generated from clinical trial populations.

Methods:

An economic model estimating the cost-effectiveness of prasugrel plus aspirin relative to clopidogrel plus aspirin for patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was developed from a managed care organization (MCO) perspective. The model estimated 15-month cardiovascular events or bleeding-related outcomes, life expectancy, and costs for patients who received thienopyridine treatment during and after a PCI following a diagnosis of ACS. Post-ACS event rates for patients treated with clopidogrel were from an MCO. The relative risks of these events with prasugrel compared with clopidogrel were from a head-to-head clinical trial.

Results:

The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, in an MCO population, use of prasugrel-based therapy rather than clopidogrel-based therapy at current prices resulted in cost-savings and fewer clinical events over the 15 months after an ACS diagnosis followed by PCI. At possible lower prices for generic clopidogrel-based therapy, the cost-effectiveness ratio for prasugrel-based therapy compared with clopidogrel-based therapy was between $6643 and $13,906 per life-year gained. The results were most sensitive to the relative costs of the two treatments and the cost for hospital stays.

Limitations:

Limitations of the study included lack of follow-up of patients disenrolling from the MCO before the end of the 15-month observation period, the assumption of equal relative risks of events in an MCO as in the clinical trial, and the lack of information on the ratio of cost to charges in the MCO database.

Conclusions:

Use of prasugrel-based therapy compared with clopidogrel-based therapy in ACS patients having a PCI resulted in cost-savings at current prices and favorable cost-effective ratios at likely generic prices for clopidogrel-based therapy because of offsetting savings in the costs of rehospitalization.     

论人口发展与构建和谐社会的关系

人口是社会存在和发展的基础与必要条件,把握人口发展与构建和谐社会的关系至关重要。人口是人与自然和谐的基础,人口数量和人口素质分别影响人与自然的和谐。人口发展是人与社会和谐的根本体现,人口是社会存在和发展的必要条件,人口发展体现一定的社会关系,人口发展影响人与社会的和谐,人口发展是人与人和谐的关系基础。     

中国转型期农村人口风险表现及其防范对策

农村人口风险是农村人口再生产过程中面临损失损害的不确定性。当前农村人口风险主要表现为留守化、婚配失调化、残疾化、文盲化、污染致病化、贫困化与老龄化等几种。防范和化解农村人口风险,既要坚持计划生育政策不动摇,确保人口红线不突破,又要坚持与时俱进,适时进行局部性、结构性微调。由此采取一系列具体的应对措施,有效化解各类农村人口风险及其危机。