基于价格折扣的物流服务供应链协调模型研究

在一个物流服务集成商与一个物流服务提供商及一个客户构成的物流服务供应链中,文章建立了各个利益主体的利润模型及物流服务供应链的整体利润模型,并分别求解了其最优解,通过对模型的分析和求解,得出各个利益主体与整体供应链的最优解存在矛盾。为了协调这个利益矛盾,提出了利用价格折扣契约来对物流服务供应链进行协调,并计算得出价格折扣系数的取值范围,最后给出了算例以证明这种契约对物流服务供应链的协调具有有效性。     

需求扰动下含有主从零售商的供应链线性数量折扣契约

对含有一个制造商、一个主导零售商和多个从属零售商的供应链,研究了市场需求发生扰动后的供应链协调问题。考虑线性数量折扣契约,首先分析了需求无扰动时制造商给予主导零售商的批发价格折扣率和鼓励主导零售商投资于产品服务的补贴率,然后讨论了需求扰动时制造商对最优批发价格的调整以及生产成本和需求扰动对线性数量折扣契约设计的影响,最后给出了算例进行验证。     

Pricing of the time-change risks

We develop an equilibrium endowment economy with Epstein-Zin recursive utility and a Lévy time-change subordinator, which represents a clock that connects business and calendar time. Our setup provides a tractable equilibrium framework for pricing non-Gaussian jump-like risks induced by the time-change, with closed-form solutions for asset prices. Persistence of the time-change shocks leads to predictability of consumption and dividends and time-variation in asset prices and risk premia in calendar time. In numerical calibrations, we show that the risk compensation for Lévy risks accounts for about one-third of the overall equity premium.     

二阶自回归效应有限时间最优相对保费稳健性

在汽车保险奖惩系统相对保费研究中,需要考虑随机效应的动态异质性。在假设随机效应是一个二阶自回归随机序列的条件下,李俊海、赵振英、常沙沙(2011)给出了有限时间下最优相对保费计算公式,但是没有研究该公式的稳健性。在相同条件下,可以证明该文保费公式的稳健性。     

经济利润及折现现金流在企业价值评估中的应用研究

几个世纪以来,经济学家一直在试图说明,只有经济利润才能够真正反映企业的价值创造能力,而会计利润则或多或少地扭曲了企业所创造的价值,因此必须进行会计调整才能使会计利润与经济利润一致。经济利润在企业价值评估中起着非常重要的作用,本文从折现现金流的方法入手,推导出企业价值和经济利润之间所存在的必然联系。     

基于多元统计分析的封闭式基金业绩评价

本文引入在险价值(VaR)和基金折价率指标,利用因子分析和聚类分析方法对基金业绩进行综合评价。实证分析发现我国封闭式基金收益率优于市场收益率,少数几只基金业绩相对突出,实现低风险高收益的目标。但封闭式基金折价幅度较大,基金内部收益水平与外部评价状况背离,反映了市场投资者的投资非理性现象。     

基于CAPM的黄金风险溢价研究

运用CAPM理论中的边际风险价格的概念,通过分析一个包含了黄金市场和股票市场在内的市场资产组合,定量给出了黄金的风险溢价。同时检验了黄金收益是否在CAPM框架内有效。在与我国股市进行比较之后,得出投资者可将黄金包括到投资组合中去,以取得更好的风险收益比。     

Preferences in the Future

Environmental economics has been much occupied with the discount rate, which is the value of future costs and benefits relative to present costsor benefits. But at least as important is the question of whatshould be discounted, that is, what the value of those future environmentalbenefits is to future generations. This paper analyzes the role for futurepreferences and discusses the state of knowledge. I argue that theappropriate discount rate is the market one, and that the real problemis determining future willingness-to-pay. This approach makes clearerthe connection between discounting and the valuation debate.This paper focuses on two features that have been prominent in that debate:existence value and reference dependence. I argue that thereis a vital connection between the two constructs and that this link yieldsimportant implications for future willingness-to-pay.     

The risk–return relation in the corporate loan market

This paper analyzes the hypothesis that returns play a risk-compensating role in the market for corporate revolving lines of credit. Specifically, we test whether borrower risk and the expected return on these debt instruments are positively related. Our main findings support this prediction, in contrast to the only previous work that examined this problem two decades ago. Nevertheless, we find evidence of mispricing regarding the risk of deteriorating firms using their facilities more intensively and during the subprime crisis.     

Optimal money supply in models with endogenous discount factor

This paper studies the Friedman rule for the optimal quantity of money in money in the utility (MIU) and cash–credit models while considering two specifications for the endogenous discount factor. In the first specification, the discount factor depends directly on the utility level. In the second, the discount factor depends on every component of the utility function. We show that under the former specification the Friedman rule is the optimal policy. Under the latter, however, while the Friedman rule is optimal for the MIU model, it is not optimal for the cash–credit model.