中国南北方央企干部晋升机制的比较研究

文章依据委托代理理论、晋升锦标赛理论和非生产性寻租理论，基于2015-2020年间任职央企中层正职管理人员数据，采用线性Oaxaca-Blinder分解方法，对中国南北方央企中层后备干部晋升速度的影响因素及其差异进行研究。研究发现：相较于北方央企，绩效和社会资本更能显著提高南方央企中层后备干部的晋升速度；南方央企相对更注重干部队伍年轻化建设；当央企干部晋升到中层时，学历对南方央企后备干部晋升速度并无显著影响，对北方央企后备干部晋升速度有显著减缓作用；南北方央企中晋升机制不同导致中层后备干部的晋升速度存在显著性差异。研究结果解释了南北方央企中层后备干部晋升的差别性影响机理，丰富了关于央企干部晋升速度影响因素方面的相关文献，为建立公平晋升竞赛机制、解决央企内部委托代理和逆向选择问题提供了理论依据。     

Optimal promotion planning for a product launch in the presence of word-of-mouth

Marketing managers concern that Word-of-Mouth (WOM) can affect the efficiency of sales promotion policy. Sales promotion might also amplify the strength of WOM which further complicates decision-making. In this study, we deploy an agent-based simulation optimization framework to find an efficient sales promotion plan in the presence of WOM for launching re-purchasable products. In this model, consumers' purchase decisions are influenced by price history, availability and satisfaction of the consumers, and positive/negative WOM. We show that taking WOM on board while determining the promotion plan can significantly increase the net present value. However, amplifying WOM might damage the firm's profit for some product categories.