Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

Quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models often admit that the zero bound on nominal interest rates does not constrain (optimal) monetary policy. Recent economic events, however, have reinforced the relevance of the zero bound. This paper sheds some light on this disconnect by studying a broad range of shocks within a standard DSGE model. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that risk premium shocks are key to building quantitative models where the zero bound is relevant for monetary policy design. Other commonly included shocks, such as productivity, government spending, and money demand shocks, are unable to push nominal rates close to zero.     

美国政策再宽松、美元陷阱与我国中期政策选择

文章在深入分析美国政策再宽松可能带来的美元贬值和通胀风险的基础上,指出了我国经济所面临的增长放缓与美元贬值的内外挑战,并从主动调节经济增速与加快经济结构调整等方面对化解上述困境提出了针对性的政策建议。     

Is Perceived Creativity‐Reward Contingency Good for Creativity? The Role of Challenge and Threat Appraisals

To address the complex effect of perceived reward for creativity on creative performance, we examined the role of cognitive appraisal as an individual difference variable. An individual's appraisal of reward for creativity, including challenge appraisal (perceived potential for recognition, growth, or mastery) and threat appraisal (perceived potential for revealing incompetence and damaging self‐respect), is hypothesized to shape the effects of perceived reward for creativity. We further expect creativity‐related intrinsic motivation to play a mediating role in the perceived reward‐creativity relationship. The results of a three‐wave field study showed that when challenge appraisal was high, perceived reward was positively related to creative performance through creativity‐related intrinsic motivation, whereas when threat appraisal was high, perceived reward was negatively related to creative performance through creativity‐related intrinsic motivation. A similar analysis showed that intrinsic task motivation was not able to channel the moderating effect of perceived reward and individual appraisal on creative performance. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A Model of QE,Reserve Demand,and the Money Multiplier

Quantitative easing (QE) programs have driven unprecedented expansions in the supply of central bank reserves around the world over the past two decades, fundamentally changing the implementation of monetary policy. The collapse in money multipliers following QE episodes has often been interpreted as implying banks are happy to passively hold most of the reserves created by QE. This paper develops a simple microsimulation model of the banking sector that adapts the traditional money multiplier model and allows for bank reserve demand to be inferred from monetary aggregates. The model allows the use of unwanted reserves by banks to play out over time alongside QE purchases and incorporates both significantly higher reserve demand after 2008 and capital constraints. With these additions, the model explains the persistently lower money multipliers seen in the United States following QE, as well as the growth in commercial bank deposits. The model suggests the demand from banks for reserves has increased substantially since the introduction of QE but not to the point where banks are passively absorbing all newly created reserves.     

The role of quantitative and qualitative research in industrial studies of tourism

Many areas of research in tourism concentrate on quantitative or qualitative studies. Some even discuss the complementarity between the two types of studies. Hardly considered are the possibilities for combining such works within an integrated framework that also considers the business environment in which tourism operates. The purpose of this paper is to return to long neglected possibilities by reinvestigating areas of methodology and epistemology concerned with the generation of a framework that embraces both quantitative and qualitative research. A hypothetical example, in terms of industrial organisation and strategic decision making, is introduced discussing the possibilities for the triangulation of methods and paradigms and the role of the business environment. The conclusion is that an improved understanding of the tourism business requires a broader research methodology than presently exists. Both types of research and the dynamic context of tourism are important and need to be combined within an integrated framework. It has been concerned with the construction of integrating frameworks that embrace an alternative logic of inference and the context of the tourism business environment. This requires refinements of existing approaches together with a broader research methodology. Only by establishing such frameworks will an improved understanding of the tourism industry be achieved. The suggested framework presented here, with particular reference to industrial organisation and strategic decision making by tourism suppliers, is not offered as a panacea. For future work, the validity and choice of framework rest squarely on how the world and ‘truth’ are viewed. However, within this, the contribution of triangulated quantitative and qualitative research should help understanding by studying phenomena in their natural setting and in terms of the meanings people have of them. This should lead to a ‘truer analysis’ of business behaviour and hence a more purposeful investigation of hotels, tour operators, travel agents and the business of tourism in general. It is in seeking to produce this ‘truer analysis’ that future research activities need to concentrate. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What Is in a Name? Purchases and Sales of Financial Assets as a Monetary Policy Instrument

This paper studies optimal interest rate and balance sheet policy in a quantitative New Keynesian model with a constrained financial sector, considering commitment versus discretion in monetary policy design and fixing either instrument. Optimal interest rate policy under commitment (discretion) achieves 93.0% (82.6%) of the potential gains to dual instrument monetary policy under commitment. Optimal discretionary dual instrument policy eliminates the cost of commitment limitations and exhibits no inflationary bias. Under commitment, the optimal balance sheet policy eliminates the cost of suboptimal interest rate policy, for example, an interest rate peg. Finally, I compare optimal policies to implementable rules-based policies.     

Ecotourism branding in protected areas of Iran: Using an efficient hybrid multi-criteria decision-making method model

Ecotourism, as a nature-based sustainable tourism, raises awareness about the protection of natural and cultural landscape values. This study aims to determine the ecotourism criteria to develop strategies for a sustainable ecotourism branding in Golestan, located in the northeast of Iran. To reach this aim, Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) analysis, multi-criteria decision-making methods consisting of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Best and Worst Method (BWM) were integrated. The most appropriate ecotourism strategies for the branding of the study area were ranked according to their priorities. The results of this study reveal that among the 5 main and 20 sub ecotourism criteria, “having natural protected areas,” which is an opportunity, and “having ecological values,” which is a strength, were determined as the highest priority strategies for ecotourism branding. The methods and results of this quantitative-based research present an exemplary hybrid model that prioritizes the strategies required for branding ecotourism in similar protected areas.     

A Dilemma between Liquidity Regulation and Monetary Policy: Some History and Theory

History suggests a conflict between current Basel III liquidity ratios and monetary policy, which we call the liquidity regulation dilemma. Although forgotten, liquidity ratios, named “securities-reserve requirements,” were widely used historically, but for monetary policy (not regulatory) reasons, as central bankers recognized the contractionary effects of these ratios. We build a model rationalizing historical policies: a tighter ratio reduces the quantity of assets that banks can pledge as collateral, thus increasing interest rates. Tighter liquidity regulation paradoxically increases the need for central bank's interventions. Liquidity ratios were also used to keep yields on government bonds low when monetary policy tightened.