Gibbsian and non-Gibbsian states at Eurandom

We review some of the work on non-Gibbsian states of the last 10 years, emphasizing the developments in which Eurandom played a role.     

Understanding attributes affecting meal choice decisions in a bundling context

This study examined attributes that contribute to consumer meal choice decisions within a prix fixe menu. Drawing on typologies of consumer purchase behavior, factors potentially influencing consumers’ meal choice are identified and empirically tested. The results showed that consumers consider value for price as the most important consideration for their meal bundle choices. The results also indicated that familiar and healthy foods also contribute to the selection process. However, consumers tend to avoid the risk of choosing new menu items.     

MODELING LIQUIDITY EFFECTS IN DISCRETE TIME

We study optimal portfolio choices for an agent with the aim of maximizing utility from terminal wealth within a market with liquidity costs. Under some mild conditions, we show the existence of optimal portfolios and that the marginal utility of the optimal terminal wealth serves as a change of measure to turn the marginal price process of the optimal strategy into a martingale. Finally, we illustrate our results numerically in a Cox–Ross–Rubinstein binomial model with liquidity costs and find the reservation ask prices for simple European put options.     

Hedonic adaptation and the role of decision and experience utility in public policy

Many economists are becoming supportive of ‘soft’ paternalistic interventions that help people to avoid common decision errors without curtailing individual autonomy. To identify when such interventions could be beneficial, and to assess their success, requires a welfare criterion. However, traditional preference or choice-based criteria cannot serve this function because they assume that whatever people choose makes them better off. An alternative criterion that bases welfare on happiness rather than choice avoids this problem but has several of its own drawbacks. Most notably, people often adapt to serious chronic health conditions, and exhibit high levels of happiness, even though both those with and those without the condition agree that it is much preferable to be healthy. After reviewing different lines of research that shed light on the pros and cons of these alternative welfare criteria, we argue that no simple criterion based on either concept can surmount these problems. Instead, evaluations of welfare will inevitably have to be informed by a combination of both approaches, patched together in a fashion that depends on the specific context.     

R软件及其在标准化中的应用

标准化工作中经常需要运用统计方法进行数据收集和分析，但由于统计方法应用的复杂性和专业性，使得方法应用受到了限制。随着统计软件和计算机技术的发展，统计方法应用得到了简单化。文章介绍了一种近年来普及速度非常快的免费应用统计软件——R软件的简单应用，并给出了几个应用实例，便于实际应用者理解和学习。     

Proper scoring rules for general decision models

If a decision maker whose behavior conforms to the max-min expected utility model is faced with a scoring rule for a subjective expected utility decision maker, she will always announce a probability belonging to her set of priors; moreover, for any prior in the set, there is a scoring rule inducing the agent to announce that prior. We also show that on the domain of Choquet expected utility preferences with risk neutral lottery evaluation and totally monotone capacities, proper scoring rules do not exist. This implies the non-existence of proper scoring rules for any larger class of preferences (CEU with convex capacities, multiple priors).     

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies

This paper empirically studies the relationship between public debt and economic growth for selected emerging market economies by performing panel data estimations. The results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between public debt and the subsequent growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Population and investment are also positively correlated with per capita growth, whereas the initial level of real GDP per capita exerts a negative influence on growth, implying conditional convergence. Other variables such as the inflation rate, the trade balance or the exchange rate do not yield a statistically significant effect with respect to economic growth.     

Exploring longitudinal risk‐return relationships

We study a longitudinal fit model of adaptation and its association with the longitudinal risk‐return relationship. The model allows the firm to adjust its position in response to partial learning about a changing environment characterized by two path‐dependent processes—a random walk and a stochastic trend. Computational simulations at low levels of learning in both environmental contexts are consistent with empirical data. However, the results are also consistent when firm behavior appears to be mindless in the form of a random walk. Hence, both imperfect learning and a mindless random walk can lead to the inverse longitudinal risk‐return relationships observed empirically. We discuss this apparent paradox and the possible resolution between mindless and conscious behavior as plausible causes of the longitudinal Bowman Paradox. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国城市地下管线综合管廊建设前景展望

综合管廊将各类公用管线集约化地敷设在同一条隧道内并进行集中管理,形成一种现代化、集约化的城市基础设施。本文结合我国城市地下管线综合管廊建设的实际,提出我国建设综合管廊的制约瓶颈和各方的争议焦点,并结合实例,探讨分析了BOT和PPP模式在共同沟投融资模式中的可行性,同时提出立法的必要性,相信随着各项体系的不断完善,综合管廊必将会在我国呈现快速健康发展的趋势。     

论政府价格规制中的公众参与

在政府价格规制中引入公众参与机制有利于价格规制政策的制定。本文基于规制经济理论的分析框架,运用博弈论模拟了公众参与价格规制的讨价还价过程。政府在价格规制中引入公众参与机制,其形式取决于政策质量和公众接受程度两者的权衡。在此基础上对当前我国公用事业价格规制中存在的问题进行分析,并提出政策建议。