Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited

This paper measures latent fundamental exchange rates with independent component‐based rates constructed from a cross‐section of exchange rates and then uses their deviations from exchange rates to forecast. Empirical results indicate that the independent component‐based model and its Taylor rule and purchasing power parity augmented models are superior to the random walk in predicting exchange rates. These results are robust to several scenarios and are likely to be observed if the U.S. sources and the recursive scheme are applied. Our results reveal that information regarding the third moment of exchange rate changes is helpful to explain exchange rate movements.     

论政府价格规制中的公众参与

在政府价格规制中引入公众参与机制有利于价格规制政策的制定。本文基于规制经济理论的分析框架,运用博弈论模拟了公众参与价格规制的讨价还价过程。政府在价格规制中引入公众参与机制,其形式取决于政策质量和公众接受程度两者的权衡。在此基础上对当前我国公用事业价格规制中存在的问题进行分析,并提出政策建议。     

Reexamining the Expected Effect of Available Resources and Firm Size on Firm Environmental Orientation: An Empirical Study of UK Firms

An emergent body of literature examined why some firms apply some environmental initiatives while other firms do not take responsibility for their natural environment? Thus, firm environmental orientation (responsiveness and performance) are linked in the literature to several variables. Unfortunately, the relationship between firm environmental orientation and either available resources or firm size showed mixed results and inconclusive evidence. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to show empirically how available resources and firm size can explain differences in firm environmental responsiveness and environmental performance. Econometric results of environmental responsiveness using the logistic regression model demonstrated that firm size does appear to add something unique in explaining differences in environmental responsiveness while available resource can be safely dropped from the model. However, econometric analysis of environmental performance using the maximum-likelihood random effects model showed strong evidence that available resources and firm size are significant predictors of firm environmental performance.     

彩票的经济学分析及我国彩票市场主体的取向

本文认为,彩票作为融资手段、理财手段和娱乐方式,可以有效地把社会闲置资金用于福利事业和其他公益事业,可以为日益富裕的人们提供有效的理财工具,为人们提供一种充满爱心的消遣活动,居民购买彩票本质上是个体投机动机驱使下的一种消费行为。文章提出,国家应从积极方面加强监管,减少其负面效应,取消额度控制,大力发展彩票业,因为彩票业不是金融业,政府可以有效调控彩票市场;同时要适度强化居民购买者的“纳税取向”,不仅可以有效规避投机动机的负面效应,对于我国社会经济的长期发展也会发挥积极的作用。     

An empirical study of dynamic customer relationship management

We apply the Gönül and Shi (1998) approach to the analysis of the optimal messaging and pricing policy mix by studying the past transaction patterns between a local supermarket and its consumers. We develop a dynamic customer relationship management model and investigate the relationship between customer utility and purchasing frequency by modifying the return function of the model discussed in Gönül and Shi (1998). In particular, we extend the analysis to consider a messaging and pricing policy mix, and we use a genetic algorithm in our empirical estimation. When applied to some non-seasonal products in a local supermarket, we find that our model is suitable and far superior to the one-stage model commonly used. Our dynamic model gives the optimal marketing mix strategies in different customer states and the results show that the firm could enjoy a 22% increase in profit.     

产品核心竞争力的三大支柱——产品概念 营销观念 价值创新策略

企业对本行业的产品和市场要有整体概念 ,才能形成现代营销新观念。从产品定义、产品规划入手对营销新观念进行介绍和分析 ,结合消费价值、顾客效用和价值创新策略引出了市场与行业的新定义 ,并着重指出创造消费价值对增强产品竞争力的重要性。     

Incorporating heterogeneity with store-level aggregate data

This paper introduces a methodology to incorporate heterogeneity in the analysis of store level aggregate data. The proposed model is validated using two sets of scanner panel data, for tuna and ketchup, and their corresponding weekly aggregate data. The model recovers the true parameters with acceptable accuracy.The model has several advantages over the previous aggregate models, such as the linear model, the semilog model, and the log-log model. First, the cross-price elasticities estimated from the model show the asymmetric responses to the price promotions very close to those from the logit model applied to the panel data. Second, the model shows better prediction performance.     

Combining the Effects of OLS and Spread on Futures Hedging: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Index

Abstract:

This study proposes a dynamic hedge ratio, the combined ordinary least squares spread (COLSS), which combines the hedge ratio of ordinary least squares and the value of spread. Using this dynamic ratio for hedging with futures contracts, one can replace spot risk with spread risk. The COLSS captures not only the long-run equilibrium between spot and futures returns, but also the short-run deviation from equilibrium. The spread is forecast by one-period lagged stock market factors and high-order moments that are estimated by an options model. In the in-sample and out-of-sample tests, the COLSS strategy achieves significant risk reduction and outperforms the alternative models by a large utility improvement.     

Smallholder land ownership in Kenya: distribution between households and through time

This study uses panel data to demonstrate two dimensions of land ownership: the distribution between households at a given time and changes within a household over time. We note that recognizing the latter dimension is only possible when analyzing rare long‐term panel data. We estimate a model for land ownership using a version of the correlated random effects estimator to uniquely identify the determinants of both dimensions amongst Kenyan smallholders. We find life cycle effects are a key determinant of both distributions, and identify important ways in which initial conditions such as inheritance and off‐farm income relate to the dynamics of ownership. We find that population density is a key determinant of differences between households, but also that a given household's land ownership is not affected in the short term as population density increases around them. Controlling for population density, households own more land when they are closer to road networks where the economic value of land is higher. We find important vulnerabilities for the land security of widows, but this vulnerability is geographically heterogeneous.     

经济学的理性假设辨析

理性历来是经济学研究秉持的最基本的行为假设,然而自从其概念诞生以来,经济学家们对它的理解与解释却众说纷纭。理性的框架应界定为:利己性、最优化与偏好一致性。对理性假设应该采取秉持实证主义思想,维持理性假设的态度与措施;当理论与现实矛盾时,谨慎地适当地扩展理论模型或环境假设,扩展的底限是维持理性的内在一致性,上限则取决于理论的一般性与现实性的权衡。