Where can obesity management policy make the largest impact? Evaluating sub-populations through a microsimulation approach

Background: There is a critical need to focus limited resources on sub-groups of patients with obesity where we expect the largest return on investment. This paper identifies patient sub-groups where an investment may result in larger positive economic and health outcomes.

Methods: The baseline population with obesity was derived from a public survey database and divided into sub-populations defined by demographics and disease status. In 2016, a validated model was used to simulate the incidence of diabetes, absenteeism, and direct medical cost in five care settings. Research findings were derived from the difference in population outcomes with and without weight loss over 15 years. Modeled weight loss scenarios included initial 5% or 12% reduction in body mass index followed by a gradual weight regain. Additional simulations were conducted to show alternative outcomes from different time courses and maintenance scenarios.

Results: Univariate analyses showed that age 45–64, pre-diabetes, female, or obesity class III are independently predictive of larger savings. After considering the correlation between these factors, multivariate analyses projected young females with obesity class I as the optimal sub-group to control obesity-related medical expenditures. In contrast, the population aged 20–35 with obesity class III will yield the best health outcomes. Also, the sub-group aged 45–54 with obesity class I will produce the biggest productivity improvement. Each additional year of weight loss maintained showed increased financial benefits.

Conclusions: This paper studied the heterogeneity between many sub-populations affected by obesity and recommended different priorities for decision-makers in economic, productivity, and health realms.     

农业现代化几个前提的研究

农业现代化是现在理论界热议的问题之一,也是发展经济学的重要议题,旨在理清研究农业现代化过程中的几个问题,以便进一步开展农业方面的研究。     

科技进步促进塔里木河流域生态经济发展分析

塔里木河流域生态环境脆弱,经济发展滞后.随着流域农业开发活动的持续增强,产生了农业用水挤占生态用水,继而导致生态环境恶化的外部性影响,而且出现制度与管理对其外部性影响的矫正失灵.文章从理论与实证角度,分析利用科技进步促进流域的生态经济发展和消除外部性影响的可行性,并通过对新疆兵团34团、新疆阿合奇县的问卷调查进行了分析验证.     

On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China

Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO₂ emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO₂. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries.     

欧盟建设技术创新联盟的做法和经验

推进产学研相结合,关键是要建立产学研一体化的有效运行机制。欧盟拥有良好的教育和研究体系,是世界研发创新的重要一极。为促进创新,欧盟创立了欧洲创新与技术研究院,旨在以知识创新共同体为核心,有效整合大学、科研机构和企业的研发创新资源。对欧洲创新与技术研究院的组织形式和运作模式进行了研究和分析,该研究院在培育科技创新与创业复合型人才及促进成果转化等方面进行了创新化探索,取得了良好的效果。     

基于奢侈概念历史考略的奢侈品管理科学范式研究

奢侈品管理科学的范式研究是以广义定义为核心内容的规范研究到论证和确定狭义定义为主要方向的实证研究之间至关重要的一个研究阶段,起着承上启下的作用。从奢侈品形成的历史考略入手,对奢侈概念进行了系统的整理,确定了现代奢侈品定义的发展逻辑,理清概念间的逻辑关系和差异的历史成因,构建了奢侈品管理科学的基本范式,并在此基础上对奢侈品广义定义进行了修正和补充,为奢侈品管理领域的研究解决了科学划界问题。     

Precautionary Demand for Education, Inequality, and Technological Progress

This paper offers an explanation for the evolution of wage inequality within and between industries and education groups over the past several decades. The model is based on the disproportionate depreciation of technology-specific skills versus general skills due to technological progress, which occurs randomly across sectors. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts that increasing randomness is the primary source of inequality growth within uneducated workers, whereas inequality growth within educated workers is determined more by changes in the composition and return to ability. Increasing randomness generates a precautionary demand for education, which we show empirically to be significant.     

林业事业单位员工激励机制研究

林业事业单位作为我国事业单位的重要组成部分,在加快林权制度改革、推动林业现代化进程中发挥越来越重要的作用。结合林业事业单位员工特点和激励林业事业单位员工的原则,运用波特-劳勒综合激励理论,构建出林业事业单位员工综合激励模型,并从管理制度激励、组织文化激励、过程激励、绩效制度激励四方面提出激励林业事业单位员工的合理化建议。     

The Value of Biodiversity in Pharmaceutical Research with Differentiated Products

Biologists and conservation advocates have expressed grave concern over perceived threats to biological diversity. ``Biodiversity prospecting' – the search among naturally occurring organisms for new products of agricultural, industrial, and, particularly, pharmaceutical value – has been advanced as both a mechanism and a motive for conserving biological diversity. Economists and others have attempted to estimate the value of biodiversity for use in new pharmaceutical project research. In this paper we apply a new approach to estimating values: we employ two models of competition among differentiated products. Each model confirms previous findings that the value to private researchers of the ``marginal species' is likely to be small. The models can have very different implications with respect to social values, however. These findings underscore the need for a better understanding of the true meaning of diversity.Resources for the Future