Forecasting system thermal efficiencies in technology importing countries

Forecasting the thermal efficiency of a set of power plants belonging to a country is important for energy, water, and environmental planning.In this article an analysis of the way in which the system thermal efficiency (STE) changes is provided, and a forecasting model for the electric utilities of technology importing countries is developed.The model is based on the identification of the speed with which technology is transferred from abroad and of the adjustment process of the system's efficiency to that of the best plant's.The application of the calculation to the South African utility shows that the STE in the year 2015 will be 20 to 25 percent higher than that in the year 1983.     

Governmental budgeting as ex ante financial accounting: The United Kingdom case

For many years now the academic governmental-budgeting literature has concentrated almost exclusively on the politics and economics of the budgetary process at the expense of the mechanical foundations. Consequently, we see an interesting but insulated discussion about political involvement and about the strengths and weaknesses of planning models. What we do not see is a discussion of the accounting perspective. This paper offers such a discussion. It explains local government budgeting as “ex ante financial accounting” and offers some important implications of this re-interpretation.     

女性劳动力就业向高层次产业转移的实证研究

通过实证分析方法研究了在我国信息化过程中女性劳动力就业发展的方向 ,以及出现这种新形势的原因。研究结果表明 :中国女性经济活动人口正在缓慢地向高技术型、智能型、市场竞争型职业转移 ,女性人力资源素质与就业竞争力有所提高。但同时也指出转移过程中所遇到的问题 ,并对此提出了一些政策建议。     

Challenges for multinational corporations

The author presents some thoughts about multinational corporations, traces the evolution of the multinational operations of his organization, and outlines some of the broad challenges ahead for multinational companies.     

Reaffirming the management ethic in industrial firms

These then are the ground rules underlying what I call “the manegement ethic.”They are based on common sense, logic, and a sense of fair play—but then, that is quite simply what good management is all about. There is nothing original about these ideas; nor, as can be seen from the following quotation, is there anything new about them.We trained hard—but it seemed that every time we were beginning to form up into teams, we would be reorganized. I was to learn later in life that we tend to meet any new situation by reorganizing. And what a wonderful method it can be for creating the illusion of progress while producing confusion, inefficiency and demoralization.     

The value and effects of introducing high standard train and bus concepts in Blekinge, Sweden

A set of improvements were introduced on a railway line in the south of Sweden in January 1992, including a new train concept, improved timetable and lower fares. The new train replaced a combination of old rail cars and standard coaches (bus). Furthermore, 18 months later, a new high comfort coach (bus) service was introduced as a complement to the train timetable to increase the number of departures. Forecasts from a national four-step model system, based on Revealed Preference data, which did not cover explanatory factors like mode concept, comfort, mode image, was made and compared with a forecast based on stated preference data choice model. Both type of forecasts were compared to travel statistics. Stated Preference data have been collected from car drivers, coach and train passengers. The set of improvements have been included in the SP alternatives presented to the subjects. A structured logit model, a regression model and a linear programming model are compared. Unstructured and structured logit models are compared. Logit models have been estimated and used to form a mode choice model which predicts the changes in market shares between the train and car. The choice model forecast coincide, accidentally, with actual demand 8–9 months after the introduction of the set of improvements (a 40% increase in journeys). The set of improvements, including the new train service, has proven to be a success with more than 100% increase in travel after only two years of operation. Differences in estimated logit models for 1991 and 1992 are explained as partly due to asymmetry effects and partly to shortcomings in the SP data collection technique. Logit model estimates for train and coach are compared. The value of high standard coach service, running in parallel to the train, is estimated. The new coach gained few new passengers and also a much lower monetary value than the train by both train and bus passengers.     

农户对农业保险支付意愿的测算及其影响因素的分析——以湖北省兴山县烟叶保险为例

本文以湖北省兴山县烟叶保险为例,采用CVM方法获取调查数据,并利用PCE模型分析得出了影响农户对烟叶保险支付意愿的主要因素包括:对烟叶保险重要性的认知程度、自然灾害造成的烟叶生产的平均损失金额、农户年龄和年家庭纯收入。同时,本文还测算出了保额为每亩100元时,农户对烟叶保险的支付意愿平均值为6.43元/亩。这些结论为解决农业保险保费筹集问题提供了思路。     

河南省地区经济差距的历史分析

改革开放近30年来,河南省各地区居民的收入水平普遍得到较大幅度的提高,但各地区之间的经济发展差距却在逐步拉大。一方面,郑州、焦作等依托省会城市或者资源优势经济得到较快发展;另一方面,信阳、驻马店等革命老区或者传统平原农业区经济增速缓慢。日益扩大的地区经济差距显然会影响资源配置效率及长期经济增长的质量,对整个河南经济发展的的可持续性带来不利影响,甚至会影响社会的安定团结。因此对河南省地区差距的度量研究显得尤为必要,但这方面的实证研究往往停留在简单的数据列举上,缺乏全面性和深入的定量分析。笔者试图以近几年河南省统计局发布的年鉴数据为基础,对河南省的地区差距作出较为全面的测度。     

浙江省学校体育场馆开放的现状和对策

采用问卷调查和访谈的方法，对浙江省187所学校的体育场馆开放现状进行调查，从开放的内容、对象、时间、管理形式等进行了分析，提出了相应的对策。     

基于贸易保护目标的技术性贸易壁垒形成机制分析——一个理论框架及其扩展

近年来,技术性贸易壁垒以其自身存在的合理性和必要性,逐渐成为了阻碍国际贸易发展的新壁垒形式。本文在综述技术性贸易壁垒形成机制观点的基础上,指出了它的保护主义实质,并从一个双寡头模型和新政治经济学视角分析了基于贸易保护目标的技术性贸易壁垒形成机制。