An alternative quasi likelihood approach,Bayesian analysis and data-based inference for model specification

This paper studies an alternative quasi likelihood approach under possible model misspecification. We derive a filtered likelihood from a given quasi likelihood (QL), called a limited information quasi likelihood (LI-QL), that contains relevant but limited information on the data generation process. Our LI-QL approach, in one hand, extends robustness of the QL approach to inference problems for which the existing approach does not apply. Our study in this paper, on the other hand, builds a bridge between the classical and Bayesian approaches for statistical inference under possible model misspecification. We can establish a large sample correspondence between the classical QL approach and our LI-QL based Bayesian approach. An interesting finding is that the asymptotic distribution of an LI-QL based posterior and that of the corresponding quasi maximum likelihood estimator share the same “sandwich”-type second moment. Based on the LI-QL we can develop inference methods that are useful for practical applications under possible model misspecification. In particular, we can develop the Bayesian counterparts of classical QL methods that carry all the nice features of the latter studied in  White (1982). In addition, we can develop a Bayesian method for analyzing model specification based on an LI-QL.     

Robustness issues in multilevel regression analysis

A multilevel problem concerns a population with a hierarchical structure. A sample from such a population can be described as a multistage sample. First, a sample of higher level units is drawn (e.g. schools or organizations), and next a sample of the sub‐units from the available units (e.g. pupils in schools or employees in organizations). In such samples, the individual observations are in general not completely independent. Multilevel analysis software accounts for this dependence and in recent years these programs have been widely accepted. Two problems that occur in the practice of multilevel modeling will be discussed. The first problem is the choice of the sample sizes at the different levels. What are sufficient sample sizes for accurate estimation? The second problem is the normality assumption of the level‐2 error distribution. When one wants to conduct tests of significance, the errors need to be normally distributed. What happens when this is not the case? In this paper, simulation studies are used to answer both questions. With respect to the first question, the results show that a small sample size at level two (meaning a sample of 50 or less) leads to biased estimates of the second‐level standard errors. The answer to the second question is that only the standard errors for the random effects at the second level are highly inaccurate if the distributional assumptions concerning the level‐2 errors are not fulfilled. Robust standard errors turn out to be more reliable than the asymptotic standard errors based on maximum likelihood.     

建设交通经济带是推进西部地区发展的有效途径

交通经济带是一种以交通干线或综合运输通道为发展主轴,以轴上或其吸引范围内的大中城市为主要 节点而形成的以第二、三产业为主体的带状经济区域。建设交通经济带是推动我国西部地区发展的有效途径。     

Modeling Methods for Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper introduces new forms, sampling and estimation approaches fordiscrete choice models. The new models include behavioral specifications oflatent class choice models, multinomial probit, hybrid logit, andnon-parametric methods. Recent contributions also include new specializedchoice based sample designs that permit greater efficiency in datacollection. Finally, the paper describes recent developments in the use ofsimulation methods for model estimation. These developments are designed toallow the applications of discrete choice models to a wider variety ofdiscrete choice problems.     

珠三角会展经济产业带的SWOT分析及策略选择

本文利用SWOT分析法对珠三角会展业内部条件和外部环境分析,以发现珠三角会展业当前具有的优势、存在的劣势、面临的机会以及威胁,对珠三角会展经济产业带的发展提出一些对策和建议。     

经济吸引与空间经济结构——以公主岭市为例

将要素流动与集中的现象考虑至一个统一的框架中,基于引力模型,构建集聚力空间分异——优势区位的理论模型,来解释要素流动与集中在微观、宏观上的空间经济规律。得到微观上城市空间结构变化的规律为：第一阶段为粗放式发展阶段的星状、带状结构,第二阶段为内涵式发展阶段的团块状结构。将公主岭市作为典型案例,采用定性与定量相结合的方法进行分析。结果表明,公主岭市某位置的经济吸引力越大,其区位越优,越能吸引要素的集中,会带来更多的城市空间扩展。将模型进一步应用于宏观上经济带的空间经济结构的形成,发现要素将沿着大城市-交通干道-小城市-支线-小城镇的次序依次集聚,要素集聚的速度和城市规模增长的速度依次递减,最终经济带内的发展差距不断缩小,区域一体化程度不断增强。     

鄱阳湖生态经济区旅游产业密集带的发展研究

鄱阳湖生态经济区一体化演进推动旅游产业在区域内不断集聚。环鄱区内旅游业地缘关系紧密,通过分析旅游产业密集带旅游资源、旅游市场与旅游企业发展水平现状,针对旅游产业密集带构建中存在的缺乏整体旅游规划、旅游内部发展不平衡与利益补偿机制不完善问题,提出应采取政府主导、企业运作、社区参与的旅游合作发展模式。     

宁夏沿黄城市带可持续发展能力综合评价研究

城市可持续发展能力直接影响着城市的发展潜力和发展后劲。本文在借鉴国内外可持续发展指标体系研究成果的基础上,结合宁夏沿黄城市带实际,构建了包括经济、社会、资源与环境三大子系统的20个具体指标,建立了宁夏沿黄城市带可持续发展评价指标体系。通过采用主成分分析法系统分析了2007-2011年宁夏沿黄城市带可持续发展能力,并从优化空间布局、加强环境保护、培育特色集群等方面提出了提升宁夏沿黄城市带可持续发展能力的相关对策建议。     

滇越铁路与滇南经济带的形成与发展

1910年滇越铁路全线通车,对云南社会经济产生了深远影响,地处滇南的红河地区首当其冲。蒙自、个旧、开远等城市经济迅速增长,铁路沿线各城镇的兴起繁荣,为滇南经济带的形成与发展奠定了重要的历史基础。