Cox Point Processes: Why One Realisation Is Not Enough

We review a rich class of point process models, Cox point processes, and illustrate the necessity of more than one observation (point patterns) in performing parameter estimation. Furthermore, we introduce a new Cox point process model by treating the intensity function of the underlying Poisson point process as a random mixture of normal components. The behaviour and performance of the new model are compared with those of popular Cox point process models. The new model is exemplified with an application that involves a single point pattern corresponding to earthquake events in California, USA.     

特殊塔脚加劲板的放样

塔脚板是铁塔的关键部位,某些荷载大的塔脚板采用加劲板四周围焊成一圈,以目前的放样软件还不能解决该加劲板的放样,只能采用三维绘图解决,不能实现柔性设计,效率低。针对此问题,本文通过点坐标法推导出计算公式,节省放样时间,缩短加工周期。     

Mobile diaries – Benchmark against metered measurements: An empirical investigation

Researchers seeking to study the relationships between consumers' communications, attitudes, and behaviors could benefit from monitoring consumers over time, across multiple locations and channels, and in a way that reflects consumers' subjective perceptions. Diaries on smartphones (mobile diaries) can be used as a research tool for such purposes. A mobile diary is a self-report instrument whereby people use their mobile handset to repeatedly report experiences of interest. Mobile diaries are increasingly used in psychology, geography, medicine, and commercial marketing. Yet they have rarely been used for quantitative marketing research, and were not benchmarked against best-practice metrics in marketing.In this study, we aim to set the ground for using mobile diaries in quantitative marketing research. We first lay out the theoretical infrastructure for the usage of mobile diaries, and describe possible respondent reporting concerns, including concerns related to non-reporting, reporting over time, and concerns stemming from individual-level heterogeneity.We demonstrate the potential of mobile diaries, as well as the importance of the various concerns, using a benchmark test case in the context of primetime TV viewing. Our benchmark uses a sample of respondents with both mobile diary viewing reports and Nielsen People Meter (NPM) records. Our analysis reveals that averaging across all conditions, 47.4%–64.7% of the NPM records are reported by the diary. The major sources for mismatch are random time periods without alarms, short viewings, and periodic reporting inactivity (pulsing). Concerns such as a decrease in reporting rates over time (e.g., fatigue), smartphone ownership, and demographic variation across individuals have relatively small effects on reporting likelihood. Analyzing the cases in which diary reports do not have a matching NPM record, we find many of them can be attributed to out-of-home viewing and viewing on non-metered devices. This finding demonstrates how mobile diaries can complement metered measurements. Overall, aggregate diary-based ratings have a 0.90 correlation with NPM ratings.We discuss implications for designing and using mobile diary studies in marketing.     

动态井点降水在沈阳地铁东～滂区间盾构井的应用

地表管井动态降水在沈阳地铁东~滂区间盾构井的应用,降水井的间距、井深、泵型、下泵深度、水泵开启时间控制,通过动态调整以上参数完成盾构井基坑开挖施工。     

High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision

We examine whether professional forecasters incorporate high-frequency information about credit conditions when revising their economic forecasts. Using a mixed data sampling regression approach, we find that daily credit spreads have significant predictive ability for monthly forecast revisions of output growth, at both the aggregate and individual forecast levels. The relationships are shown to be notably strong during ‘bad’ economic conditions, which suggests that forecasters anticipate more pronounced effects of credit tightening during economic downturns, indicating an amplification effect of financial developments on macroeconomic aggregates. The forecasts do not incorporate all financial information received in equal measures, implying the presence of information rigidities in the incorporation of credit spread information.     

Robust consumption‐investment problem under CRRA and CARA utilities with time‐varying confidence sets

We consider a robust consumption‐investment problem under constant relative risk aversion and constant absolute risk aversion utilities. The time‐varying confidence sets are specified by Θ, a correspondence from [0, T] to the space of the Lévy triplets, and describe a priori drift, volatility, and jump information. For each possible measure, the log‐price processes of stocks are semimartingales, and the triplet of their differential characteristics is almost surely a measurable selector from the correspondence Θ. By proposing and investigating the global kernel, an optimal policy and a worst‐case measure are generated from a saddle point of the global kernel, and they constitute a saddle point of the objective function.     

CORS系统在上海市集体土地所有权调查项目中的应用

本文在详细介绍CORS系统的基本原理及分析其优势的基础上,将其应用于上海市集体土地所有权调查中,完成实测界址点和图形数据成果检查验收,充分发挥其精度高,速度快的优势,保证调查成果质量。     

浅谈基层党支部在企业安全工作中的优势与作用

本文从党支部书记的角度,阐述作为基层党支部与本单位安全生产之间的关系,结合石油化工行业安全生产的特性,有效地发挥支部优势,引导员工通过开展一系列安全活动,不断提高员工安全意识和安全技能,将支部日常工作较好的融入企业安全生产,减少安全事故,杜绝危害发生,从而为企业生产、经营与发展保驾护航。     

Cross-sectional surveys: Inferring total eventual time in current state using only elapsed time-to-date

We focus on snapshot surveying of sub-populations whose members are in a temporary state and where one of the questions asked is the elapsed time already spent in that state. From these answers we develop probabilistic and statistical procedures to estimate the distribution of total time that will eventually be spent in that state by any random individual who enters the state. The method relies on a selection bias often found in temporal sampling, sometimes called “random incidence” or “longevity bias.” We develop results for several types of sampling, including random and fixed times of surveying, random and fixed times of entering the state, and sampling only those who have already spent some minimal specified time in the targeted state. An example with post-doc data is included to demonstrate the steps.     

TEM4改革前后完形填空的考点效度对比分析

2005年以来英语专业四级考试完形填空试题的考点效度比以前有所提高,但句子层次考点数量仍然偏高。教师在教学过程中应注重培养学生的语篇理解能力和逻辑分析能力,提高学生的语言综合运用能力。