江苏省人口老龄化影响产业结构优化的动力机制——基于积极老龄化视角

论文从积极老龄化视角分析人口老龄化对区域产业结构优化的影响,分别从劳动力供给、消费需求变化、居民储蓄等方面研究人口老龄化对产业结构优化影响中的抑制或推动作用。研究结果显示:积极老龄化视角下,人口老龄化在人才培养、产业结构匹配、产业集聚等方面能够促进产业结构优化。     

Dynamic portfolio optimization across hidden market regimes

Regime-based asset allocation has been shown to add value over rebalancing to static weights and, in particular, reduce potential drawdowns by reacting to changes in market conditions. The predominant approach in previous studies has been to specify in advance a static decision rule for changing the allocation based on the state of financial markets or the economy. In this article, model predictive control (MPC) is used to dynamically optimize a portfolio based on forecasts of the mean and variance of financial returns from a hidden Markov model with time-varying parameters. There are computational advantages to using MPC when estimates of future returns are updated every time a new observation becomes available, since the optimal control actions are reconsidered anyway. MPC outperforms a static decision rule for changing the allocation and realizes both a higher return and a significantly lower risk than a buy-and-hold investment in various major stock market indices. This is after accounting for transaction costs, with a one-day delay in the implementation of allocation changes, and with zero-interest cash as the only alternative to the stock indices. Imposing a trading penalty that reduces the number of trades is found to increase the robustness of the approach.     

基于CFD的超声波流体测量影响因素的模拟

针对超声波流量计，通过实验实测和模拟结果的对比，提出采用CFD模拟仿真的方法，研究影响因素对超声波流量计内部流场及速度分布的影响。借助模拟方法分析了热电偶的安装、不同流量和流体温度对流量计内部流场及修正系数K的影响，结果表明，热电偶不仅仅影响了下游的工质流动，扰动的范围已经蔓延到上游接近超声波探头附近，会对流量测量结果产生影响；同一温度下，修正系数K随着流量的增大，先快速减小，再缓慢减小；当流量较小时，流动本身因温度的变化所带来的测量误差已经超过了可接受的范围，表明在流量较小时测量会产生较大的误差，应考虑温度补偿。模拟仿真为超声波流量计的进一步研究和优化提供了简单便捷的方法。     

Navigating through the complex transport system: A heuristic approach for city tourism recommendation

The fast development of machine learning and artificial intelligence has led to a great improvement of the smart tourism recommendation system, however many problems associated with the choice of transport modes in city tourism have yet to be solved. This research attempts to address this issue by proposing a model of customized day itineraries with consideration of transport mode choice. With improved particle swarm optimization and differential evolution algorithm, a nondominated sorting heuristic approach was devised. A case study was carried out in Chengdu, China to examine the performance of our approach. The results show that compared with extant methods, our approach achieves better performance. In addition, our approach can create more sensible, multifarious, and customized itineraries than previous methods. Tourism organizations and mobile map app providers could integrate our proposed model into their existing smart service systems, as part of their e-business or digital strategy for enhancing tourist experience.     

A credibility-based multi-objective temporary logistics hub location-allocation model for relief supply and distribution under uncertainty

Disaster response operations revolve around uncertainties. While uncertainties arising due to randomness can be avoided for post-disaster location problem, those arising because of impreciseness may persist long after the disaster's occurrence. Despite the uncertainties and lack of sufficient information about the extent of the damage, disaster response facilities must be established quickly after the occurrence of the disaster. Moreover, the decisions of whether to open, where to locate, and when to open disaster response facilities are based on the amount and quality of information available during the decision-making period. To address these issues, we develop a multi-objective location-allocation model for relief supply and distribution that accounts for the imprecise and time-varying nature of different parameters and time-varying coverage, while also accommodating the subjective attributes necessary to enable establishment and operation of the temporary logistics hubs (TLHs). A credibility-based fuzzy chance-constrained programming model is employed to account for the impreciseness inherent in predicting parameter values during disaster response. The results show where, when, and how many TLHs to open and how to allocate relief supplies. Meanwhile, the sensitivity analysis provides a broader understanding of the impact of limiting the number of TLHs as well as the confidence level and the spread of the symmetric triangular fuzzy numbers on the attainment of the model objectives.     

Improving Order Fulfillment Performance through Integrated Inventory Management in a Multi-Item Finished Goods System

Effective inventory management is fundamental to order fulfillment excellence and supply chain success. In this paper, we develop a strategic inventory management decision tool that integrates inventory classification and inventory control policy decisions for maximizing order fulfillment performance, while accounting for a constraint on inventory budget and the profit expectation of a firm. This inventory solution tool provides critical enhancements to current inventory planning software, which is developed upon the traditional inventory classification scheme and where practitioners have to balance service levels and safety stock decisions through trial-and-error. The model allows firms to assess whether the current inventory performance is Pareto optimal, quantify the trade-offs between various performance measures, and identify the right inventory level according to the firms' strategic goals. In computational results, we demonstrate the trade-off and positive relationships between key item- and order-based inventory performance measures and short-term profitability under different levels of inventory budget in a multi-item finished goods inventory system.     

Expectile CAPM

Conventional wisdom suggests that the uncertainty of uninformed noise-traders’ sentiment deters rational traders’ arbitrage activities. However, nowadays, social media have made the public sentiment highly predictable, whereas the CAPM-motivated beta-return relation still does not hold in practice. This study advances an argument that the sentiment can also be brought about by rational, sophisticated investors’ use of psychological insight; resultantly, the arbitrage activities are demotivated by their own sentiment, rather than deterred by noise-traders’ sentiment risk. The proposed expectile CAPM provides a parsimonious way to account for this claim, and leads to a sentiment-based functional form of pricing kernel.     

新形势下优化工程施工企业财务管理的对策分析

伴随着我国社会经济的发展和城市化进程的加快,越来越多的建筑工程项目投入施工建设。当前工程施工企业在进行财务管理时还存在一定的问题和不足,尤其是在新收入准则颁布和实施之后,对工程施工企业财务管理提出了新的要求,需要规范收入管理。论文主要针对工程施工企业财务管理的现状,着重探讨新准则模式下优化工程施工企业财务管理的对策。     

生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计

通过建立动态优化模型，进行模拟发现：在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人 口的福利水平。这意味着，如果自愿进行生育，全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。 进一步模拟发现：养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策，如果与生育政策调整同时进行，可以增 加社会资源，补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占，但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会 资源增量须用于生育支持，降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企 业的社会生产率。政策启示在于，尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施，特别是生育支持性政策。     

浅析建筑工程造价的影响因素及优化措施

建筑企业进行建筑工程项目建设的最终目的是保证建筑工程项目质量的前提下实现经济效益的最大化。因此,对建筑工程项目的造价管理必须要给予高度的重视。工程造价控制是保证工程项目成本投入得到有效管理的最佳途径,其直接关系到建筑工程的质量和工程的经济利润。因此,必须要明确影响建筑工程造价的因素,并采取科学的优化措施进行工程造价的合理控制。论文首先阐述建筑工程造价管理的必要性,再分析影响建筑工程造价的因素,最后提出一些优化措施上的建议。