转制背景下大学出版社人力资源构成及其优化

大学社转制后要作为企业按照市场规律运作,这对大学社所肩负的学术创新和传播知识功能构成了很大的挑战。相应地,转制背景下大学出版社的人力资源构成也必须作出相应的调整,并应当按照现代企业制度及其运行规律不断进行优化和完善。     

医疗康复机械设计

论文首先介绍了国内外康复训练装置的市场,工作现状以及应用情况。然后介绍整个装置的基本骨架——即结构方案与布局方案以及该套方案能最终实施与否,运动效果以及该运动所能为病人康复做出的贡献。接着论述了三大动力系统的实施过程及传动,动力方案并进行相关校核,最终设计出康复训练装置的总体结构。     

Postponement strategy for international transfer of products in a global supply chain: A system dynamics examination

This paper contributes to research on “postponement” strategy in the context of a global production–distribution system of an automobile manufacturer. It proposes a model that integrates multiple considerations germane to global supply chains. Postponement is important in this context because it is necessary to consider international transfers and tariffs, and it is important to appropriately account for the impact of postponement on total costs. Consideration of several key variables such as shipping point, customs tariff, and cost differences between countries is essential to derive full benefits from postponement strategy in global supply chains. International transfer of goods among countries in global automobile industry is complex and dynamic because of the multitude of factors that must be considered. The paper develops insights regarding postponement strategy in global supply chains via a system dynamics simulation model. The model draws on the experiences of a Korean automobile manufacturer with operations in developing and developed countries.     

Simulating non‐normal distributions with specified L‐moments and L‐correlations

This paper derives a procedure for simulating continuous non‐normal distributions with specified L‐moments and L‐correlations in the context of power method polynomials of order three. It is demonstrated that the proposed procedure has computational advantages over the traditional product‐moment procedure in terms of solving for intermediate correlations. Simulation results also demonstrate that the proposed L‐moment‐based procedure is an attractive alternative to the traditional procedure when distributions with more severe departures from normality are considered. Specifically, estimates of L‐skew and L‐kurtosis are superior to the conventional estimates of skew and kurtosis in terms of both relative bias and relative standard error. Further, the L‐correlation also demonstrated to be less biased and more stable than the Pearson correlation. It is also shown how the proposed L‐moment‐based procedure can be extended to the larger class of power method distributions associated with polynomials of order five.     

Modelling and Forecasting Gas Flow on Exits of Gas Transmission Networks

The flow of natural gas within a gas transmission network is studied with the aim to optimize such networks. The analysis of real data provides a deeper insight into the behaviour of gas in‐ and outflow. Several models for describing dependence between the maximal daily gas flow and the temperature on network exits are proposed. A modified sigmoidal regression is chosen from the class of parametric models. As an alternative, a semi‐parametric regression model based on penalized splines is considered. The comparison of models and the forecast of gas loads for very low temperatures based on both approaches is included. The application of the obtained results is discussed.     

A Monte Carlo simulation estimating US hospital cost reductions associated with hypotension control in septic ICU patients

Objective: This economic analysis extends upon a recent epidemiological study to estimate the association between hypotension control and hospital costs for septic patients in US intensive care units (ICUs).

Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation decision analytic model was developed that accounted for the probability of complications—acute kidney injury and mortality—in septic ICU patients and the cost of each health outcome from the hospital perspective. Probabilities of complications were calculated based on observational data from 110?US hospitals for septic ICU patients (n?=?8,782) with various levels of hypotension exposure as measured by mean arterial pressure (MAP, units: mmHg). Costs for acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality were derived from published literature. Each simulation calculated mean hospital cost reduction and 95% confidence intervals based on 10,000 trials.

Results: In the base-case analysis hospital costs for a hypothetical “control” cohort (MAP of 65?mmHg) were $699 less per hospitalization (95% CI: $342–$1,116) relative to a “case” cohort (MAP of 60?mmHg). In the most extreme case considered (45?mmHg vs 65?mmHg), the associated cost reduction was $4,450 (95% CI: $2,020–$7,581). More than 99% of the simulated trials resulted in cost reductions. A conservative institution-level analysis for a hypothetical hospital (which assumes no benefit for increasing MAP above 65?mmHg) estimated a cost decline of $417 for a 5?mmHg increase in MAP per ICU septic patient. These results are applicable to the US only.

Conclusions: Hypotension control (via MAP increases) for patients with sepsis in the ICU is associated with lower hospitalization cost.     

行业协会的市场作用——基于信号传递模型的分析

文章研究了行业协会在企业与消费者的不完全信息动态博弈中所起的作用,在信号传递模型的基础上,分析证明了行业协会作为传递企业品质的一种信号,会改变企业的成本结构与市场的信息结构,从而有助于市场和消费者甄别企业的优劣.随后,文章利用一个行为模拟实验验证了上述结论,同时分析了行业协会存在的必要性,并进一步指出,行业协会需要更多地将职能集中在"为优质企业服务、客观宣传企业商誉和自律自裁"上,才能保证协会的健康持续发展,并推动产业良好发展、增进消费者福利.     

金融生态优化对地区经济发展的影响

本文阐述了金融生态的定义,分析了金融生态的特征以及目前我国金融生态的现状及存在的问题,并进一步探讨了金融生态优化在地区经济建设中的作用,最后提出了解决我国金融生态优化的对策。     

国外低碳经济研究动向分析

进入21世纪,低碳经济成为国内外学者关注热点。首先简要分析经济地理学研究的四个转向:制度转向、文化转向、关系转向和生态转向,探讨低碳经济发展的理论基础,认为低碳经济是区域可持续发展思想、生态文明思想的具体深化,其实质是区域社会经济发展模式的转变。对国外低碳经济研究内容进行总结分析,归纳为不同类型区域碳排放评估预测、不同尺度的能源与碳排放评估模型应用研究、碳补偿机制及其治理研究、低碳经济的政府治理机制、碳税体系研究、碳足迹的界定与评估、低碳城市的发展模式等7个不同方面,在此基础上,对国外低碳经济研究进行了简要评价,认为国外低碳经济研究注重实践研究,研究方法上注重数理模型的应用,但同时存在模型、政策、机制的适应性问题。最后提出对未来低碳经济研究的初步建议:研究设计符合发展中国家国情的区域碳排放评估预测模型,能源与气候变化政策关系模型等数量模型;以多学科、多角度综合集成的视角研究低碳经济对区域发展模式的影响,以及影响的机制及途径。     

基于系统动力学的煤矿工业生态系统仿真研究

在界定煤矿工业生态经济概念的基础上,以系统动力学为手段,建立矿区生态系统的动态仿真模型,并在模型通过有效性检验后,以徐州矿务集团为例,对所模拟的4种行为模式进行分析。最终表明,所构建的矿区生态系统模型具有可行性,能够合理地对煤矿工业生态系统未来的发展状况进行模拟预测,进而提出合理的对策建议。