线上与线下：农技推广方式对农户生物农药施用行为的影响

[目的]信息化背景下的新媒体应用为生物农药技术的推广提供可行路径。[方法]文章基于农业技术推广扩散理论和双向沟通理论,利用湖北省和河南省789份农户调研数据,采用内生转换概率模型构建“反事实”分析框架,实证检验信息化背景下农技推广方式对农户生物农药施用行为的影响。[结果]（1）接受传统农技推广农户生物农药施用比例为37.77%,接受新媒体农技推广农户生物农药施用比例为28.77%;(2)“线上”或“线下”农技推广方式对农户生物农药施用均具有显著促进效应,从平均处理效应来看,传统农技推广方式对农户生物农药施用行为促进效果最好,新媒体农技推广方式次之,二者对农户生物农药施用行为具有叠加效应和互补效应;（3）针对小规模农户生物农药推广应该以传统农技推广方式为主,而对大规模农户则应采用传统和新媒体农技推广结合方式。[结论]因此应拓宽生物农药技术推广渠道,加强农村信息化建设;创新农技推广形式,促进线上线下互动交流;同时实行差异化精准化推广。     

Drivers of transaction costs affecting participation in the rental market for cropland in Vietnam

Farm incomes in rural Vietnam are tightly constrained by very small farm sizes. Stringent limits on the area of cropland that individuals may own means that farmers need a well‐functioning rental market to consolidate land parcels, grow their farm enterprises, adopt new technology and increase incomes. This research investigates the efficiency and equity impacts of the rental market in rural Vietnam and attempts to identify transaction costs impeding the market. A generalised ordered logit model with shifting thresholds allowing transaction costs to impact lessors and lessees differently was specified and estimated using data extracted from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys. The findings show that rental transactions reduced imbalances in factor endowments, transferring cropland to households that were relatively land‐poor but more willing and able to farm. However, the market is constrained by transaction costs that affect lessors and lessees differently. It is recommended that government should complete its land registration program and relax restrictions on the use of wetlands to grow crops other than rice. It should also improve access to all‐weather roads as this encourages participation on both sides of the rental market, whereas better access to communications infrastructure was found to promote only the supply side.     

中国储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花市场传递效应研究

文章以1978-2016年中国棉花价格、消费产量及轮入轮出数据为基础,采用联立方程模型,就储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花供需的传递效应进行实证分析。研究表明,中国棉花储备政策及轮入轮出机制对于平衡国内棉花市场供求、防止棉花价格过度波动起到积极的作用。储备棉轮入轮出机制对国内棉花产量、消费量的传递效应显著且存在一定差异,对国内棉花产量的传递效果要强于对国内棉花消费量的传递效应,产生这种差异的主要原因在于储备棉轮入轮出机制的传递路径有所不同。应坚持和完善储备棉轮入轮出机制,提升储备棉轮入轮出机制对棉花需求的调控作用,实现储备棉轮入轮出机制常态化,通过明确储备棉轮入轮出机制的政策目标和市场定位,加强棉花市场信息系统建设,使储备棉轮入轮出机制成为我国棉花支持政策体系的主要手段。     

农业绿色发展模式的农业保险需求引致效应——基于荔枝种植户的经验分析

目的 研究农业绿色发展模式引致的农业风险规避需求及其特点,提出完善和推广农业保险、推进农业绿色发展的政策启示。方法 文章将农户农业保险需求分为5个等级,以采用生物防控和非化学生长调节技术来衡量农业绿色发展模式,然后构建排序Logit模型,利用2018—2019年国家荔枝龙眼产业技术体系的调查数据证明农业绿色发展模式和农业保险需求之间引致效应,并借助OLS、2SLS、LIML和分位数回归法检验了模型的稳健性。结果 （1）排序模型中农业绿色发展模式的系数均在1%的显著性水平上显著,说明农户的农业绿色发展模式会引致显著的农业保险需求,年龄、种植经验、合作组织、种植规模的系数也显著不为0,体现出种植规模较大、种植时间较长、参加合作组织的非老年人农户对农业保险需求影响较明显;（2）0.50分位数回归的农业绿色发展模式系数值最大,表明农业绿色发展模式引致的农业保险需求往往处于中等水平。结论 政府政策应充分考虑和满足农户农业绿色发展模式中的风险规避需求,才能深入推进农业绿色发展;而促进农业绿色发展的农业保险费率标准与推广策略也需要充分考虑农户种植规模、种植经验、合作组织、农户年龄和中等水平的农业保险需求等因素。     

Family Composition and Off-Farm Participation Decisions in Israeli Farm Households

This article studies the relationship between the off-farm participation behavior of farm operators and their spouses and the demographic composition of the household. We focus on farm families without parents, siblings or partners, and examine the effects of the existence of elderly children of the farm couple. We find that both the father and the mother tend to reduce their participation in off-farm work as the number of elderly children rises. This result holds even after controlling for observed characteristics. We also find that the effect of elderly children stems from considerations related to both farm production and household production.     

Landscape properties as drivers for farm diversification: A Dutch case study

Farm diversification is stimulated by the societal demand to transform production countryside into consumption countryside. In most empirical studies on farmers’ decision making for diversification, geographical information is either omitted or reduced to a variable that links the farm to an administrative unit. Therefore, the influence of the exact farm location on farmers’ decision making is often lacking. The paper addresses the role of location, in terms of site specific natural conditions as well as neighboring dynamics, in influencing farmers’ decision making to diversify. Moreover, it investigates to what extend low returns from primary production stimulate farmers to find new survival strategies, and therefore explains diversification. The Gelderse Vallei area, a region in the center of the Netherlands, is used as a case study. For this area an extensive farm survey data could be combined with topographic data and soil maps (GIS). Both the number of activities as well as the kind of activities that are taken up are analyzed. Landscape attractiveness turns out to be a driver of diversification. Daily recreation most frequently occurs close to national parks, green services are more likely to occur on relatively wet soils. Activities resulting from diversification might produce positive externalities: new activities have the tendency to emerge next to already existing ones, therewith explaining the formation of “hotspots” in the landscape. Finally, diversification was found to be sensitive to returns from primary agriculture production.     

Predictability of Term Spread for Economic Activity with Liquidity Premium Theory

In this article, we explore the predictive content of the term spread based on the liquidity premium theory. We decompose the contribution of the spread into the effect of expected future changes in short rates and the effect of the term premium. We also examine whether the predictive power of the term spread for real economic activity can be enhanced by such a decomposition. The basic finding is that both the expectations effect and the term premium effect are relevant for predicting economic fluctuations. In particular, we find that the decomposition might lead to a better prediction for the business-cycle turning points than the usual term spread.     

注射用先捷中两组分含量的同时测定

同时测定注射用先捷中两组分含量。偏最小二乘法。注射用先捷中头孢哌酮钠和舒巴坦钠两组分的线性范围分别为:0.1~32.0?m/ml;平均回收率分别为100.91%和100.05%,相对标准偏差分别为3.85%和0.28%。该法准确,简便,快速。     

Entry Mode Choice and Performance: Evidence from Taiwanese FDI in China

This paper examines entry mode choices between wholly owned subsidiaries (WOSs) and joint ventures (JVs) and the impact on performance for Taiwanese foreign direct investment in China. Taiwan and China share common cultural traits, so Taiwanese investors inherently prefer WOSs because these investors are acquainted with local conditions in China. This paper shows that even if WOSs are a natural choice, transaction cost theory is applicable in explaining the adoption of JVs by Taiwanese firms when investing in China. Firms that choose WOSs generally have higher sales growth and superior profitability. However, the smaller the subsidiary and the less experienced the firm, the more likely that JVs will have better performance.