贵州省宏观经济联立模型及其应用

自1952年以来,贵州省平均边际消费倾向为0．53,边际投资倾向为0．51,地区生产总值的持续增长促进了居民消费和总投资的增长。同时,居民消费和总投资的快速、稳步增长也巩固和带动着贵州省地区生产总值的增长。特别是1994年以后,居民消费的自发性支出由1994年之前的10．44亿元增加到54．34亿元,总投资在新的基数上保持持续增长。     

论服装设计中多种设计元素综合运用的层次化

在近年服装设计的发展中,单纯使用单一设计元素的设计理念已经被淘汰,取而代之的是几种设计元素共同作用于一件或同一系列服装中的设计理念.在一件服装中只使用单一的设计元素,会使服装的表现形式过于平面、呆板.有层次地合理使用多种设计元素则可以使服装,特别是系列服饰在艺术表现上更生动、更立体,更能表现设计师丰富的灵感及服装别具一格的设计风格.因此,在服装设计中运用多种设计元素是现代服装设计发展的主要趋势     

转型期我国公民社会心态影响因素分析：基于CGSS2008调查数据的分析

社会心态是社会群体行为的前兆,社会心态的方向和强度都会很大程度上影响到群体的行为,对社会心态影响因素的研究对调节群体行为具有重要价值。文章以CGSS2008调查数据为支撑,构建了一个社会心态影响因素框架图,并实证研究了影响社会心态的个体因素和社会因素,得到如下结论:我国现阶段,公众对社会公平、社会正义认同度都很不理想,表明我国现阶段公众的社会心态处于一个不健康的状态;个体特征、家庭影响、社会网络以及个体对所处阶层和阶级的认识都对社会心态有重要影响;要改变这种不健康的社会心态,必须清除消极的社会存在,改变不利于社会公平正义的制度因素。     

The Food Stamp Program and Food Insufficiency

Food stamp participants have higher food insufficiency rates than eligible nonparticipants, even after controlling for other factors. Given the Food Stamp Program's prominent role in the alleviation of hunger, this is a counterintuitive result. We conjecture that these higher rates are due to adverse selection insofar as households more likely to be food insufficient are also more likely to receive food stamps. We establish a theoretical framework to address this adverse selection. Using a simultaneous equation model with two probits, we show that once one controls for this adverse selection, food stamp recipients have the same probability of food insufficiency as nonrecipients.     

An analysis on perceived crowding level reported by domestic visitors of South Korean National Parks: a multilevel ordered logit approach

Perceived Crowding Level (PCL) is an indicator of the social carrying capacity of recreational sites such as National Parks. Using a sample of national-level visitor survey data across 21 National Parks in South Korea, this paper aims to apply a multilevel ordered logit model as a method in testing for statistical relationships between the PCL and the covariates, accounting for site- and individual-specific heterogeneity. The results hint that levels of perceived crowding in South Korean National Parks are related to factors such as the behaviour of other users and the quality of park facilities such as comfort in accommodation. The measured level of heterogeneity can provide useful information about the level (nation-wide or park-specific) of intervention policies and management strategies.     

Insiders vs. outsiders in the hotel sector

We investigate whether entering an official hotel classification system is as lucrative as suggested in the tourism management literature. Indeed, in countries in which the official hotel classification system is voluntary, a substantial fraction of hotels choose not to enter the system, and are outsiders. Considering that being classified (being insider) as a predictor of the rate structure may raise an endogeneity issue, we apply the recursive semi-ordered probit model to control for endogeneity and appropriately assess the effect of being classified on price rates. Using a sample of 357 hotels of Corsica, we show that, in contrast to previous research, classification does not provide any rate premium. We also fully derive conditional probabilities and partial effects on differences in conditional probabilities within the recursive semi-ordered probit model.     

Inflation expectations in India: Learning from household tendency surveys

We use a large household survey that is being conducted by the Reserve Bank of India since 2005 to estimate the dynamics of aggregate inflation expectations over a volatile inflation regime. A simple average of the quantitative responses produces biased estimates of the official inflation data. We therefore estimate expectations by quantifying the reported directional responses. We perform quantification by using the hierarchical ordered probit model, in addition to the balance statistic. We find that the quantified expectations from qualitative forecasts track the actual inflation rate better than the averages of the quantitative forecasts, highlighting the filtering role of qualitative tendency surveys. We also report estimates of the disagreement among households. The proposed approach is particularly suitable in emerging economies, where inflation tends to be high and volatile.     

Mobile Telephony,Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth

ABSTRACT

The paper employs the multipurpose nature of mobile telephony to investigate its welfare implications using a large sample of households in Ghana. We use seemingly unrelated probit and instrumental variable procedure to test for two related issues: First, we investigate whether mobile telephony promotes pro-poor development by helping households to efficiently allocate consumption and navigate out of poverty. Second, we analyze whether access to a broad array of financial services enhances the capacity of households to live worthwhile lives. The results show that mobile penetration and financial inclusion significantly reduce the probability of a household becoming poor and increase per capita household consumption of food and non-food items. Our results show that the welfare benefits of mobile telephony and financial inclusion are not more pronounced in female-headed households. These insights serve as useful guide for government and other stakeholders who are looking for avenues to improve livelihoods.     

Part-time workers doing full-time work in Japan

This paper is concerned with the phenomenon of part-time workers performing similar types of jobs to full-time workers in the same workplace. We use data from Japan's Survey on Diversified Types of Employment to answer two questions. First, why are firms increasingly employing part-time workers in jobs traditionally offered to full-time workers? Second, what are the characteristics of the workers taking these jobs? As for the former, it is primarily service sector firms using this new work relationship. Interestingly, there is evidence that manufacturing firms are outsourcing in lieu of hiring domestic part-time workers. On a positive note, we find evidence that part-time workers are screened by firms for full-time jobs. As to the second question, the workers are primarily professionals working long hours. As an aside, based on our data we find no evidence that part-time workers are more likely to be involuntarily employed in full-time jobs than in non full-time jobs. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 435–454.     

Relative export prices and firm size in imperfect markets

This paper contributes to the rising field in international trade and industrial organization. A vast sample of Italian micro data is used to study the behavior of relative export prices in imperfect markets. It is shown that relative export prices, the relation of prices a firm charges on export and domestic markets, are, in general, downward biased. Moreover, relative export prices depend negatively on firm size and market concentration, but positively on the average export share of the industry. This indicates that markets are segmented and firms are able to discriminate prices.