气候变化视野中的自愿环境协议

气候变化问题的综合性和广泛性决定整个社会每一分子都直接或间接地对气候变化有不可分割的作用。传统环境治理思想过多地将环境管理和提高义务置于诸如政府、环保团体等公共利益卫道士之手,单纯依靠公共利益团体的力量在气候变化背景下已不足以形成有效的社会约束机制,许多高瞻远瞩的企业已意识到自身环境责任与社会形象的重要性,通过自我约束行为为缓解气候变化添砖加瓦,自愿环境协议为此提供了制度平台。国际上早已有将自愿环境协议作为气候变化应对战略的一项重要措施的实践,我国的相关试点工作也已悄然铺开。因此,如何正视自愿环境协议的柔性治理功能,以及如何促进其在我国气候变化应对机制中发挥正面作用,成为我国环境治理面临的新问题。     

“十二五”时期转变经济发展方式、促进循环经济的关键政策研究

通过对我国十二五时期转变经济发展方式的宏观背景进行分析,得出循环经济仍然是我国转变经济发展方式的重要着力点的结论,剖析了循环经济的重要地位和作用,对循环经济的若干重要问题提出政策性建议。     

态度变化能预测家族企业职业经理忠诚度吗？——个人特质的调节作用

职业经理化是我国家族企业成长为＂现代企业＂的必由之路。但职业经理忠诚度低下,甚至＂背叛＂雇主的现象频频发生却伤害了双方的彼此信任,使企业家与经理人之间的合作难以长期持续。本文目的在于寻找职业经理忠诚度的预测方法。通过检验忠诚度的直接前因——态度变量,我们发现,满意度和承诺度、工作搜寻意愿对职业经理忠诚度具有显著预测效应。同时,工作参与度、承诺倾向、创业动机等个人特质也显著影响忠诚度。这三个特质变量还对态度变量与忠诚度之间的关系具有显著的调节作用。此项研究给出了一种预测职业经理忠诚度的方法,加深了对企业家与经理人真诚合作的条件的理解。     

对我国转变经济发展方式的几点思考

中国共产党历来重视转变经济发展方式,转变经济发展方式是我们党长期推进经济发展战略过程中的明智选择,是适应国内外经济形势发展变化的客观需要,是遵循人类社会经济发展规律的必然要求,是我们党在市场经济条件下力求保持人与自然和谐发展的重要举措,既要清醒地认识到我国转变经济发展方式面临的深层次问题,又要积极探索转变经济发展方式中所面临问题的解决路径.改革开放以来,尽管我们在经济建设方面取得显著成效,但仍然存在许多亟待解决的问题,如经济发展速度过度依赖以牺牲环境为代价,经济发展动力过度依赖外贸进出口,经济发展方式过度依赖外资,经济发展效果评价过度依赖GDP指标等.为加快转变经济发展方式,必须做到四个坚持,即在经济发展理念上坚持以科学发展观为指导,在经济发展动力上坚持内需与外需并重,在经济发展方式上坚持以公有制为主体,在经济发展效果上坚持数量与质量相融合的综合评价.     

Supply structure: The pendulum in action

Using an in-depth longitudinal case study based on an “historical retrospective”, this article focuses on how some factors (“drivers”) set into motion the pendulum of change in supply structures, a research theme neglected in the supply field. It examines, over a 20-year period, the changes made to the supply structure of a well-known organization. The data comes mainly from: (a) semi-structured interviews with 21 managers and professionals within eight operating units, and (b) documentary analyses of the archives. This article shows how to map structural changes of the supply function, while explaining the nature and the causes of these changes. Understanding the pendulum movement from one supply structure to another can be very valuable, as well for academics as for managers.     

民用建筑火灾CFAST模拟及分析

运用CFAST6.0区域火灾模拟软件,针对一个典型的民用建筑起火房间进行火灾模拟计算,得出着火房间上层烟气温度、走廊烟气层高度、走廊下层烟气温度及走廊中CO浓度等随时间变化的火灾参数,运用Origin软件对各参数进行数据处理得出相应的变化曲线,并结合曲线进行了详细分析。     

动态助词“过”的语法化历程

动态助词"过"一般分为"过1"和其中"过2","过1"表示动作的完结,"过2"表示曾然。其语法化历程为:一般动词"过"→趋向动词"过"→动态助词"过1"→动态助词"过2"。动态助词"过1"和"过2"的演变又可分别区分为两个阶段,即演变发生和演变扩散。就形成机制而言,"过1"的产生主要是受隐喻、类推以及重新分析的作用,趋向动词"过"的形成是"过1"产生的关键;而"过2"是"过1"吸收了助词"来"及其经常出现的句法环境的语法意义而产生的,可以说是"过1"在特殊语境下的产物。     

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?

We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds.     

Cost-effective compensation to avoid carbon emissions from forest loss: An approach to consider price-quantity effects and risk-aversion

Analyses were carried out on financial compensation to avoid loss of tropical forests and related carbon (C) emissions when marginal financial yield declined for land-use options with extended areas, and when a risk-averting perspective (modeled according to financial theory around the capital asset pricing model) is assumed. The approach in this study was to consider natural forest, forest plantation, pasture, and cropland simultaneously to investigate how an optimized land-use distribution may reduce the amount of compensation necessary to avoid C emissions from forest loss.The financial compensations derived were as high as US$ 176 per hectare per year when comparing natural forests only with the most profitable alternative (croplands). However, compensation decreased to US$ 124 for risk-neutral decision-makers, who would strive for optimized land-use allocation, and to only US$ 47 per hectare per year for risk-avoiders, who would look to maximize the reward-to-variability ratio. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the compensation under risk-aversion increased much less than under risk-ignoring when increased productivity of agricultural land-use or growing demand for agricultural products was simulated. It was concluded that considering appropriate diversification strategies and the well documented human behavior to avoid risks is an important step in developing cost-effective compensation policies.     

Stimulating different types of eco-innovation in the UK: Government policies and firm motivations

In this paper, we adopt a recent OECD framework and examine the role of external policy tools and internal firm specific factors for stimulating three different types of eco-innovations that range on a spectrum of lower to higher technological and environmental impacts: End-of-Pipeline Pollution Control Technologies, Integrated Cleaner Production Technologies and Environmental R&D. Using a novel firm-level dataset from a DEFRA survey, we estimate a Tobit model, which provides empirical evidence showing that these eco-innovations are motivated by different external policy tools and internal firm specific factors. Our findings indicate that End of Pipeline Technologies and Integrated Cleaner Production Technologies are mainly driven by equipment upgrade motives with a view of improving efficiency while environmental regulations are effective in stimulating the End-of-Pipeline technologies and Environmental R&D. Interestingly, alongside government induced regulations, we find that market factors, mainly motivated by cost savings, are effective in driving Environmental R&D. Finally, ISO14001 certification is effective in strengthening the positive impact of environmental management systems on both End-of-Pipeline technologies and Environmental R&D while CSR policies have no significant impact on motivating any of the eco-innovations.