Book reviews

Natural hazards have become increasingly frequent in the Philippines, making the determination of risks associated with large-scale natural hazards and disasters in this area increasingly important. This study developed a method for estimating the risk of disasters from multiple hazards in this country at the province level. The locational probability and consequences of five natural hazards were analyzed over a 30-year period (1982–2011), and the disaster-risk potential of provinces was estimated based on the combined damage cost per capita from five hazards over that period. Information from the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters Emergency Disasters Database (CRED-EMDAT) was used to analyze the areas and populations affected, damage costs, and frequency and duration of five hazards (i.e. meteorological, climatological, hydrological, geophysical, and biological). The estimated values were then presented spatially using a geographic information system. The results suggested that meteorological hazards were the most common hazards affecting most provinces in the Philippines, whereas hydrological hazards produced the most damage. Small island provinces and coastal zones were among the areas with the highest disaster-risk potential. This assessment can aid in decision making with regard to financing disaster prevention schemes and in planning for the increasing occurrences of natural hazard-related disasters.     

医学专科学生自我和谐与应对方式的相关分析

为了研究医学专科学生的自我和谐状况与应对方式之间的关系,并找出影响学生和谐的主要因素,给心理健康教育、心理咨询和治疗提供一些参考参考,本文通过采用简易应对方式问卷和自我和谐量表,对557名医学专科学生进行测试。并对测试结果做了技术统计,通过对数据的分析研究发现积极应对方式对自我的灵活性有着正相关的影响,而对自我与经验的不和谐、自我的刻板性、自我和谐是负相关的影响。基于这种分析结果提出了一些改善医学专科学生自我和谐的一些建议,教育部门和教育者要注重医学专科学生的积极应对方式的培养。     

NONLINEAR FORECASTING OF THE GOLD MINER SPREAD: AN APPLICATION OF CORRELATION FILTERS

This paper models and forecasts the Gold Miner Spread from 23 May 2006 to 30 June 2011. The Gold Miner Spread acts as a suitable performance indicator for the relationship between physical gold and US gold equity. The contribution of this investigation is twofold. First, the accuracy of each model is evaluated from a statistical perspective. Second, various forecasting methodologies are then applied to trade the spread. Trading models include an ARMA (12,12) model, a cointegration model, a multilayer perceptron neural network (NN), a particle swarm optimization radial basis function NN and a genetic programming algorithm (GPA). Results obtained from an out‐of‐sample trading simulation validate the in‐sample back test as the GPA model produced the highest risk‐adjusted returns. Correlation filters are also applied to enhance performance and, as a consequence, volatility is reduced by 5%, on average, while returns are improved between 2.54% and 8.11% across five of the six models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

产品伤害危机处理过程消费者信任对品牌资产影响的实证分析

产品伤害危机处理,是现代企业必须正视的课题。无论是大型企业还是小型企业,在发展的过程中可谓是危机四伏,必须采取有利的预防措施与消除策略。企业采取的伤害危机处理方式在于能否取得消费者的信任;消费者对于企业危机处理信任与否,会影响到企业产品品牌资产的评价。     

Slippage in the Conservation Reserve Program or Spurious Correlation? A Comment

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) pays farmers about $2 billion per year to retire cropland under ten- to fifteen-year contracts. Recent research by Wu found that slippage—an unintended stimulus of new plantings—offsets some of CRP's environmental benefits. Wu does not account for the endogeneity of CRP enrollments. Furthermore, the data used by Wu cannot be used to estimate slippage arising from a price feedback effect. We replicate Wu's findings, demonstrate the possible presence of spurious correlation, and construct new estimates with corrections for endogeneity and other econometric problems. We find no convincing evidence of slippage.     

Has recent financial crisis changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed stock markets?

The paper finds recent financial crisis has changed permanently the correlations between BRICS and developed U.S. and Europe stock markets. 70% of BRICS stock markets⿿ conditional correlation series demonstrate an upward long-run trend with the developed stock markets. Our results provide convincing evidence that the reducing diversification benefits are a long-run and world-wide phenomenon, especially after recent financial crisis.     

农民收入灰色关联分析——以江苏为例

农民增收是新农村建设核心问题。应用灰色关联度数学模型，分析影响江苏“十五”期间农民收入的主要因素以及存在问题，并对未来几年如何增加农民收入提出建议。     

Influence of ADB Bond Issues and US Bonds on Asian Government Bonds*

This article examines whether there is a correlation between the government bond markets of Asian countries and those of the USA, and whether the efforts of international organizations to improve bond markets have had any effect in East Asia. Because the sizes of the government bond markets are larger than those of the corporate bond markets in East Asia, the present paper uses the daily data of government bonds to examine two questions: whether government bond yields in Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand correlate with US government bond yields, and whether bonds in these Asian countries are influenced by ADB bond issues. The present study analyzes these issues by demonstrating the fluctuations in bond yields and carrying out an estimation using the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The results substantiate that there is indeed a correlation between Asian and US bond markets, and that ADB bond issuance in local markets can contribute to the development of Asian bond markets.     

Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return

Two empirical questions concerning the equity and housing have been studied extensively: (1) Are the price and return serially correlated, and (2) What is the optimal weight of housing in the portfolio? The answer to the second question crucially depends on the cross-correlation of assets. This paper complements the literature by building a simple dynamic general equilibrium with fully rational agents, and obtain closed form solutions for the implied auto- and cross-correlations. The length of time horizon, as well as the persistence of economic shock matter. Implications and future research directions are then discussed.     

中国农产品贸易调整的能力与成本研究

文章利用入世后中国农产品贸易数据,实证分析了进、出口产品结构的现状和演化.研究表明中国进口产品结构适应世界市场变动趋势;出口则未遵照世界需求及时调整,调整能力明显低于进口.把国际市场滞后一期,中国出口调整能力依然较弱且显著;进口调整能力也要弱于当年的进口调整.指数表征中国具有贸易调整的可能性.中国可通过调整农产品贸易结构.提高国内与国际市场的对接吻合程度.促进农产品贸易条件改善.