Has the correlation of inflation and stock prices changed in the United States over the last two centuries?

The relationship between stock prices and the inflation can be either negative or positive, depending on the strengths of various theoretical channels at work. In this study, we examine the dynamic conditional correlations of stock prices and inflation in the United States over the period of 1791–2015 under a time-varying framework. The results of our empirical analysis reveal that correlations between the inflation and stock prices in the United States evolve heterogeneously overtime. In particular, the correlations are significantly positive in the 1840s, 1860s, 1930s and 2011, and significantly negative otherwise. The policy implications of these findings are then discussed.     

Temporal aggregation and spatio-temporal traffic modeling

Traffic forecasting is crucial for policy making in the transport sector. Recently, Selby and Kockelman (2013) have proposed spatial interpolation techniques as suitable tools to forecast traffic at different locations. In this paper, we argue that an eventual source of uncertainty over those forecasts derives from temporal aggregation. However, we prove that the spatio-temporal correlation function is robust to temporal aggregations schemes when the covariance of traffic in different locations is separable in space and time. We prove empirically this result by conducting an extensive simulation study on the spatial structure of the Milan road network.     

登记机构不审核申请人的婚姻状况，依申请登记为申请人所有

在房地产登记和房地产登记行政案件应诉实践中，关于夫妻房产登记问题，有不少人认为，登记机构应审核申请人的婚姻状况，以确定房产共有与否。但在笔者看来，对于夫妻房产的登记，登记机构不审核申请人的婚姻状况，依申请登记为申请人所有，并且登记后再转让也不必征得未被登记为产权人的配偶（隐性共有人）的同意。     

环境规制对我国制造业工业效率的影响——基于上市公司的经验证据

本文以我国制造业中若干行业为研究对象,运用DEA方法对所收集到的上市公司数据进行分析,计算出行业的工业效率并得出每个行业的全要素生产率。在此基础上,结合近年来我国治理污染的投资额,运用Spearman相关系数进行测度,认为我国有必要实施严格的环境规制政策。     

时相调制的频分多址接入性能分析

依据时相调制信号的相关系数分析了其频分多址接入性能，导出了用户间载频差与相 关系数的解析关系表达式，可以发现：由于其调制信息包含在很宽的边带谱内，因此，时相 调制的频分多址接入需要较宽的信道划分，且多用户间的互扰效果会随着载波频率差而起伏 变化，不过，总的趋势是随着载频差的增大而减弱。分析结果为时相调制的频分多址方案设 计提供了理论基础。     

中国快递企业的空间组织研究——以顺丰速运为例

以顺丰速运为案例，分析其网点布局规律，并从组织模式和快递流量等方面探讨其空间组织网络，以此来探讨中国快递企业的空间组织。研究发现，快递企业空间组织网络总体呈现出为社会经济和人口服务的特征趋势，并与区域地形地貌、当地的区位条件和产业特征相关。快递企业的网点布局遵循行政级别越高的城市网点覆盖率越高，同一级别城市的网点覆盖率从南向北、从东向西递减的规律。随着市场的扩张，快递企业逐渐采用多层级分区域的空间组织模式，并根据区域社会经济发展状况、产业特征、交通情况等，形成基于不同服务时限等级的快递服务网络，整个营运网络逐渐由单枢纽轴辐式网络向多枢纽轴辐式网络变迁。同时，快递流量和流向与城市的吸引力、城市间关联关系体现出较好的一致性，顺丰速递华中区快递流量分析充分说明了上海、北京、广州和深圳在全国层面的较强吸引力和绝对中心的地位。     

我国消费者信心指标与股价指数的关联度研究

我国股市“非理性投机”、“弱式有效市场”的现状，造成我国如今股市低迷、投资者信心不足等严重的问题。而通过传统的技术分析和基础分析手段，无法对股市震荡、股价的波动进行完美的诠释，因而部分学者开始另辟蹊径，探寻能够更好解释股价变动的“第三条中间路线”。此时，我国消费者信心指标的编制与发布，为研究提供了全新的视角与思路。我国自2003年底开始编制并发布消费者信心指标，旨在从宏观整体经济发展，到微观股市汇市走势研究预测方面，发挥该指标强大的领先与预测功能。文章选取我国三组消费信心指标、上证综指与深证综指两组股价指数，通过相关性检验、因果检验与脉冲响应指数与方差分解等方式，不仅得出我国消费信心指标与股价变动之间较强的关联性，还通过分样本区间的讨论，得出股市衰退、股价下滑阶段，CCI指标与股价指数的关联度更大的结论。     

Not all emerging markets are the same: A classification approach with correlation based networks

Using dynamic conditional correlations and network theory, this study brings a novel interdisciplinary framework to define the integration and segmentation of emerging countries. The individual EMBI+ spreads of 13 emerging countries from January 2003 to December 2013 are used to compare their interaction structure before (phase 1) and after (phase 2) the global financial crisis. Accordingly, the unweighted average of dynamic conditional correlations between cross country bond returns significantly increases in phase 2. At first glance, the increased co-movement degree suggests an integration of the sample countries after the crisis. However, using correlation based stable networks, we show that this is not enough to make such a strong conclusion. In particular, we reveal that the increased average correlation is more likely to be caused by clusters of countries that exhibit high within-cluster co-movement but not between-cluster co-movement. Potential reasons for the post-crisis segmentation and important implications for international investors and policymakers are discussed.