动态能力关系质量与合作绩效实证研究

本文以上市制造企业为调查对象,对动态能力、关系质量、合作绩效之间关系进行了研究。研究结果表明,动态能力对关系质量有着显著的正向影响;动态能力对合作绩效有着显著的正向影响;关系质量对合作绩效有着显著的正向影响;动态能力不仅直接影响到合作绩效,而且通过关系质量间接地影响到合作绩效。本文研究结论可为我国制造企业制定和实施管理策略提供理论指导。     

Volatility and stock price indexes

The stochastic approach to index numbers has been successfully applied to the estimation of inflation, the world interest rate and international competitiveness.?One distinct advantage of this approach is that it provides the whole distribution of the index, not simply one value. In this article, we extend the stochastic approach to the estimation of a stock market index. We demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify ‘redundant stocks’ that do not contribute significantly to the overall index.?For index tracking purposes, these stocks can be safely excluded.     

Evaluating the economy embedded in the Brazilian ethanol–gasoline flex-fuel car: a Real Options approach

The introduction of the flex-fuel cars in the Brazilian market in 2003 changed considerably the consumer decision-making process. Prior to this date, it was necessary to choose the automobile type only by gasoline or by ethanol fuel; today it is possible to choose a car type with both fuel options. This flexibility generates economic advantages for his owner, but what are the financial benefits of a flex-fuel car in comparison with a car using only gasoline? Geographically, where is the owner of the benefits from this flexibility located? This article presents an empirical application of the Real Options Theory in the analysis of the flex-fuel car option for five geographic Brazilian regions: Northern, Northeastern, Central-Western, Southeastern and Southern. The regional price differences as well as the consumer preferences of these regions were met. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered stochastic and following a Mean Reverting Stochastic process. The prediction and option values were generated by a Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option embedded on the Brazilian flex-fuel car adds considerable value to the owner in all regions and car models considered, with the Southeastern Region receiving most benefits by the flex option.     

Spillovers and absorptive capacity in the decision to innovate of Spanish firms: the role of human capital

This paper investigates whether the existence of knowledge spillovers and the capacity of firms to assimilate them, which we relate with R&D intensity and some human resource management practices, are associated with the decision to innovate of Spanish firms. In order to do this, we employ data from the ‘Central de Balances’ database, which covers both manufacturing and services firms during the period 2003–2007, and use an estimator proposed by Wooldridge [2005. Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, no. 1: 39–54] for dynamic random effects discrete choice models. The empirical exercise provides evidence on the positive link between spillovers and the innovative behaviour of companies, not just for the knowledge generated in the same industry, but also for that generated in the same region or by the public sector. Moreover, this link is stronger for those firms with a higher capacity to absorb those spillovers. This ability not only works through firms’ R&D capabilities, but also through factors such as the quality of the labour force, the share of temporary employment and the amount of resources spent in training. In addition to these factors, we find that innovation performance exhibits a high degree of inertia. Further, some other observed firm characteristics, such as size, sales growth, export behaviour, sector capital intensity or financial structure variables, are also found to be relevant determinants of the likelihood of innovation.     

Merger Waves and Firm Growth: Contemporary Historical Evidence

This article presents the outcomes of an evaluation of the impact of the series of mergers of the local exchange companies that have taken place between 1988 and 2001 on an important measure of performance of the firms undergoing the mergers. The analysis reveals that after firms have undertaken one merger they experience little or no growth after such mergers, but the impact of second mergers on firm growth have been negative. If an important motive in undertaking mergers has been to enhance firm growth, then the merger waves that have been approved and consummated have led to performance declines. The impacts of the merger wave on the growth of the telecommunications sector firms have been negative.     

Energy Prices and Carbon Taxes under Uncertainty about Global Warming

This paper extends the strategic interactions between producers of fossil fuels concerned about their profits and a taxing government concerned about the consumers’ welfare for uncertainty: global warming follows an Itô -process. Stochasticity requires to differentiate between reversible and irreversible emissions in contrast to the deterministic version. The unconstrained (= reversible) case allows for a closed form solution but not the more realistic and constrained case. Nevertheless interesting analytical properties (e.g. about when to stop emissions, implicit conservation due to monopolistic supply) are derived and complemented by a numerical example.     

The Bioeconomics of Marine Sanctuaries

Consider an offshore fishing grounds of size K. Suppose the grounds has been overfished to the point that net revenue has been driven to zero and the fishery is in open access equilibrium at (X, Y). A marine sanctuary, where fishing is prohibited, is then created. Suppose the marine sanctuary is of size K₂ and that fishing is allowed on a smaller grounds, now of size K₁, where K₁ + K₂ = K. In the first, deterministic, model, the present value of net revenue from the grounds-sanctuary system is maximized subject to migration (diffusion) of fish from the sanctuary to the grounds. The size of the sanctuary is varied, the system is re-optimized, and the populations levels, harvest, and value of the fishery is compared to the 'no-sanctuary' optimum, and the open access equilibrium. In the deterministic model, a marine sanctuary reduces the present value of the fishery relative to the 'ideal' of optimal management of the original grounds. In the second model net growth is subject to stochastic fluctuation. Simulation demonstrates the ability of a marine sanctuary to reduce the variation in biomass on the fishing grounds. Variance reduction in fishable biomass is examined for different-sized sanctuaries when net growth on the grounds and in the sanctuary fluctuate independently and when they are perfectly correlated. For the stochastic model of this paper, sanctuaries ranging in size from 60 to 40% of the original grounds (0.6 K₂/K 0.4) had the ability to lower variation in fishable biomass compared to the no sanctuary case. For a sanctuary equal to or greater than 70% of the original grounds (K₂ 0.7K), net revenue would be nonpositive and there would be no incentive to fish.     

明代盐商“困守支”的政治经济学解释

政府是影响经济的重要制度形式."掠夺之手"模型为分析现代政府行为提供了有用的研究视角.以"掠夺之手"模型的视角来分析明代统治者行为对盐商利益以及开中法实施效果产生的一系列影响,从而得出明代开中法崩溃、盐商"困守支"的根本原因在于缺乏制约统治者掠夺之手的制度安排的结论.     

经济先行指数与我国宏观经济增长的动态关系分析

信心与宏观经济波动关系的研究对改善和加强宏观经济管理具有重要意义。分析了我国企业家信心指数、消费者信心指数等7种经济先行指数与宏观经济增长的关系,结果表明,我国的经济先行指数与宏观经济增长之间存在着长期稳定关系,但各类经济先行指数对经济波动的敏感性差别较大,其中,企业家信心指数对我国宏观经济趋势的敏感性最强,消费者信心指数最不敏感。因此,为避免我国宏观经济的大幅波动,应通过财税政策和制度设计增强企业家信心。     

产权制度下商业银行不良资产博弈

银行的改革进行了二十几年,虽然取得了阶段性的成果,但却没有从本质上解决银行的巨额不良资产问题。本文通过建立两阶段的动态博弈模型,分析了政府与国有银行之间的利益博弈行为,阐明国有银行不良资产之所以仍然不断涌现,是由于政府对银行产权份额的过多控制而导致的。在此基础上,提出了推进彻底的银行产权制度改革、完善银行的法人治理结构的建议,以便从根本上减少银行的不良资产。