中国制造业资本积累动态效率变迁及其与空间集聚关系研究

中国制造业空间集聚态势非常明显,但并非所有制造业空间集聚都会带来正效益。本文利用1997—2008年中国制造业28个行业的数据,运用AMSZ准则对中国制造业资本积累的动态效率进行测算,并对典型制造业空间集聚规模及其资本积累动态效率关系进行格兰杰因果检验,结果显示:中国整体制造业资本积累动态效率不断提高,制造业内不同行业的资本积累动态效率存在较大差异;进一步分析发现,制造业空间集聚规模与资本积累的动态效率之间不是简单互为因果的均衡关系,只有部分地区、个别行业存在单向的因果关系,而有些产业集聚程度较高地区集聚程度与资本积累动态效率反而偏离长期均衡关系,出现过度集聚、效率下降现象。     

Dynamic managerial capabilities: Configuration and orchestration of top executives' capabilities and the firm's dominant logic

This paper contributes to the understanding of the executive team dynamic managerial capabilities by developing theory about the interplay between the firm's dominant logic and dynamic managerial capabilities (including managerial human capital, social capital, and cognition). We underscore the criticality of the two key CEO‐level functions: configuration and orchestration of senior executive team dynamic capabilities. We develop theory on how these functions create and sculpt the management team's absorptive capacity, which in turn shapes the team's adaptive capacity. We present theory about the distributed nature of efforts for organizational renewal where CEO's dynamic managerial capabilities in concerto with senior executive managerial capabilities will drive top management's ability to revitalize the firm's dominant logic and to achieve evolutionary fit. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic lot sizing problem with continuous-time Markovian production cost

This paper develops a polynomial algorithm for obtaining dynamic economic lot sizes in a single product multiperiod production system with the objective of minimizing total production and inventory costs over T periods. It is assumed that production costs are linear, inventory costs are concave, setup costs are zero and backlogging is not permitted in all periods. Moreover, the unit production cost is a stochastic variable, which is evolved according to a continuous-time Markov process over the planning horizon. The model is formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming (DP) optimization with the state variable being unit production cost. Then, it is solved using the backward dynamic programming approach. To justify the application of the proposed model, two practical cases are presented.     

北部湾广西区中心城市旅游经济联系度测量与评价--基于动态分析视角：2009-2013年

文章基于经济引力论的相关理论,利用统计年鉴与社会统计公报数据,运用引力模型,对2009-2013年连续5年的北部湾广西区4个中心城市（南宁、北海、钦州和防城港）的旅游经济联系度进行了测度,测度结果显示：从动态角度来看,北部湾广西区各主要中心城市间的经济联系度呈逐年上升趋势,且趋势十分明显;南宁与其他3个城市之间的旅游经济联系度是4个中心城市中最强的,而北海与其他3个城市之间的旅游经济联系度则是最弱的;无论就旅游业发展水平而言,还是就区域旅游经济合作而言,北部湾广西区中心城市旅游业发展水平还处于一个较低水平。最后,就北部湾广西区旅游业下一步的发展战略问题提出了相关措施与建议。     

不同领导风格与团队自省性组合下的创业绩效

文章依据团队“输入-过程-输出”（IPO）视角,通过对105名创业团队领导和315名团队成员的配对数据进行实证分析,探讨了团队自省性对创业绩效的作用,进一步地检验了创业团队中不同的领导风格与团队自省性组合情境对团队绩效影响的差异,并研究了创业环境动态性在团队自省性与团队创业绩效关系中作用。研究结果表明,团队自省性的增加有助于团队的创业绩效的提高,创业绩效在不同的情景组合下有所差异,创业环境动态性正向调节了团队自省性对创业绩效的作用。本研究对创业企业有一定实践意义。     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.     

上海市循环经济发展水平的动态评价研究

循环经济是世界各国实现经济、社会与生态可持续发展的惟一出路,发展循环经济是上海市经济发展的必然选择。文章构建循环经济评价指标体系并结合上海市的具体情况,运用2000～2008年数据,从动态的角度分析了上海市循环经济发展的现状和存在的问题,并在此基础上对上海市循环经济的进一步发展提出了针对性的政策和建议。     

产业集群形成与发展因素分析及其政策建议

文章根据国内外典型产业集群的共同特点,从市场机制、社会制度、技术创新、历史文化、地域空间、产业特征和社会资本等方面分析了产业集群产生的必备条件,并从集群形成到分化的这一系列过程中,基于资本、政策、市场、内部协作和自我强化等方面研究了其动力机制,并对产业集群提升区域竞争力的路径进行了分析,最后对产业集群在区域经济发展中所起的重要作用进行了探讨,并提出了政策建议。     

金融冲击、货币政策与宏观审慎政策—基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

通过建立包含房地产市场金融冲击的NK-DSGE模型,考察了我国货币政策与宏观审慎政策的效果。通过比较不同政策机制下金融冲击的脉冲响应函数可以发现,宏观审慎政策的引入缓和了金融冲击的效应,并且可以同时实现稳定物价和稳定金融系统的目的。社会福利分析的结果表明：(1)金融冲击下,仅对产出缺口和通胀做出反应的政策具有最低的社会福利水平;(2)如果货币政策考虑信贷市场,并同时使用反周期性宏观审慎政策,那么社会福利将得到明显的提高。这意味着金融冲击下,政府应该积极行使对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策相结合的政策机制。当前,在房地产市场整体不景气的背景下,我国政府积极利用金融冲击对房地产市场进行调控。因此,采用对信贷市场做出反应的货币政策以及反周期性宏观审慎政策将具有相对较好的政策效果。     

沿海地区临港产业集聚地区差异研究——基于17个港口城市面板数据

文章运用2000—2012年17个港口城市临港产业的面板数据,从空间、产业、时间三个维度,分析了三大经济圈之间及圈内临港产业集聚的动态差异,结果发现:环渤海地区唐山市的钢铁工业集聚明显,纺织服装业、石油化工业、能源产业集聚发展相对稳定;长三角地区各城市纺织服装业、装备制造业集聚度变化差异较大,产业布局处于剧烈的调整阶段,能源产业集聚发展潜力巨大;珠三角地区临港产业集聚程度普遍较高,各城市特色产业明显,广州的食品加工业和能源产业、汕头的木材加工业集聚效应突出。