Price-raising drug enforcement and property crime: a dynamic model

Price-raising drug enforcement suppresses drug use, but it is expensive and may increase property crime. This has led to contradictory recommendations concerning how drug enforcement should or should not be used. We reconcile these recommendations by incorporating the enforcement's effects on both drug use and on property crime within an optimal-control model that recognizes whether convicted drug-involved property offenders are merely incarcerated or whether they receive some form of drug treatment.     

静态及动态风险度量模型的实证对比分析

选取上海证券交易所金融、工业指数的收盘价为观察对象,分别对静态及动态模型、上证金融及工业指数的风险程度以及不同置信水平下的度量准确性进行了比较研究,结果表明：动态风险度量模型对VaR、ES的度量比静态模拟更加准确;上证金融指数的风险程度要略高于上证工业指数的风险程度;置信度为99%时度量风险模型要比置信度为95%时更加精确。     

员工职业生涯的心理契约的动态管理

员工的职业生涯是一个动态的过程。在这一过程的不同阶段,员工的需求、态度、工作行为都存在着较大的差别,员工与企业之间的心理契约在内容上也会发生变化。而心理契约作为一种隐性契约,具有显著的特殊性,这种特殊性在客观上要求企业对其进行动态管理。本文从职业生涯管理的视角阐述了员工不同职业生涯阶段心理契约的特点以及如何对其进行动态管理。     

金融发展、能源消费与经济增长关系研究——基于动态面板数据的分析

通过面板数据系统广义矩估计方法,从金融发展、能源消费与经济增长的角度对我国1985~2011年省份进行的实证分析发现,整体而言,金融发展、能源消费与经济增长之间存在显著正相关关系;按照东、中、西部三个地区分类估计得出,区域金融发展、能源消费对经济增长的作用效果存在显著的区域差异性:金融发展对经济增长的作用效果存在自东向西逐次递减的现象,而能源消费对东部地区经济增长的作用效果最大,西部居中,中部最小。     

Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression

Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises. Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.     

资源型产业集群的系统动力机制分析

近年来,资源问题和产业集群问题逐步成为经济研究的热点,而作为资源产业特殊组织形式的资源型产业集群也受到了越来越多的关注。资源型产业集群的系统动力机制应该从系统动力学角度,对机制的结构、功能和原理进行研究。文章在探讨资源产业集群系统动力要素的基础上,分析了资源型产业集群的主体、资源和环境三大系统动力结构以及动力功能,提出了资源产业集群动力系统的成本效率机制、协同竞争机制、学习创新机制和支持保障机制四大作用机理。     

Sensitivity analysis of efficiency rankings to distributional assumptions: applications to Japanese water utilities

This article examines the robustness of efficiency score rankings across four distributional assumptions for trans-log stochastic production-frontier models, using data from 1221 Japanese water utilities (for 2004 and 2005). One-sided error terms considered include the half-normal, truncated normal, exponential and gamma distributions. Results are compared for homoscedastic and doubly heteroscedastic models, where we also introduce a doubly heteroscedastic variable mean model, and examine the sensitivity of the nested models to a stronger heteroscedasticity correction for the one-sided error component. The results support three conclusions regarding the sensitivity of efficiency rankings to distributional assumptions. When four standard distributional assumptions are applied to a homoscedastic stochastic frontier model, the efficiency rankings are quite consistent. When those assumptions are applied to a doubly heteroscedastic stochastic frontier model, the efficiency rankings are consistent when proper and sufficient arguments for the variance functions are included in the model. When a more general model, like a variable mean model is estimated, efficiency rankings are quite sensitive to heteroscedasticity correction schemes.