The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation: An application of perspective-based scenario analysis using the analytic hierarchy process

This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool.     

Feminist Ecological Economics and Sustainability

Synopsis New developments in feminist ecological economics and ecofeminist economics are contributing to the search for theories and policy approaches to move economies toward sustainability. This paper summarizes work by ecofeminists and feminist ecological economists which is relevant to the sustainability challenge and its implications for the discipline of economics. Both democracy and lower material throughputs are generally seen as basic principles of economic sustainability. Feminist theorists and feminist ecological economists offer many important insights into the conundrum of how to make a democratic and equity-enhancing transition to an economy based on less material throughput. These flow from feminist research on unpaid work and caring labor, provisioning, development, valuation, social reproduction, non-monetized exchange relationships, local economies, redistribution, citizenship, equity-enhancing political institutions, and labor time, as well as creative modeling approaches and activism-based theorizing.      

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

城市地价评估中的地质环境问题

地价评估通常考虑的影响因素主要有社会因素、经济因素、政策法规，以及地块的地理位置，而对城市的地质环境的影响考虑较少。本文就城市地质环境问题，研究了其对土地价格评估的作用，以及在地价评估中的量化关系。     

土地利用规划环境影响评价若干问题探讨

土地的开发利用对于土地资源的可持续发展来说至关重要。当前,生态环境的建设改造需要土地利用规划的进一步协调发展。土地资源利用规划不当对生态环境带来了很多负面影响,长远来看,损害了人类发展的各种利益。论文对土地利用规划、环境影响评价的定义、意义以及策略进行了探讨。     

三峡库区小城镇可持续发展评价与对策——重庆市万州区龙沙镇实证分析

加快小城镇可持续发展是缩小城乡差距，落实科学发展观，建设和谐社会的重要举措。以往各方对小城镇的研究存在一些不足：数据欠缺，少实证分析，或将小城镇简单地视同为规模缩小的城市，没有注意到小城镇发展的特殊性。本文选择三峡库区一个典型城镇作为案例，通过实地调查，结合当地的统计资料，对其可持续发展状况进行评价，以期找出症结，并提出解决问题的思路。     

战略环境评价中的公众参与及实施条件分析

本文简要介绍了战略环境评价中公众参与的含义，着重分析了我国公众参与战略环境评价的重要意义和作用，并立足我国国情对实施有效的公众参与所必需的制度框架和技术方法进行了深入探讨。     

城市国民经济和社会发展规划战略环境评价研究——以武汉市为例

城市国民经济和社会发展规划编制是否科学．会直接影响到城市其他规划的科学性，对城市未来的发展及生态环境状况影响重大。本文论述了对城市国民经济和社会发展规划开展战略环境评价的必要性和重要性．并结合（《武汉市国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年总体规划纲要》探讨了我国城市国民经济和社会发展规划战略环境评价的技术思路和技术方法。     

山一生态村建设的成绩与思考

山一村自８０年代初建设生态村以来，在控制人口增长，美化。改善生态环境等方面取得了令人瞩目的成绩。然而由于各种原因使资源的多层次利用没有取得突破性的进展。对此，笔者提出要加强实用高效多种生态技术的研究。     

水运交通节能效益评估

本文核算了1985～2000年我国内河水路货运交通的节能量,以及由此减排的主要大气污染物量。并通过合适的环境经济方法将节能物理量转化为货币量。结果表明:(1)相对于1980年我国水运能耗水平,1985～2000年我国水路货运业每年直接节约油品6200～9200吨,折合货币量1900万～2800万元;(2)若相对于汽车运输,我国水运每年直接节约油品9万～12万吨,折合2.5亿～3.2亿元。若从开源系统考虑,万元节约油品、减排污染物以及由此获得的经济收益量是其直接值的1.17～1.09倍。