Relationship between foreign capital flows,domestic investment and savings in the SADC region

The importance of foreign capital in the domestic economy cannot be underestimated as it bridges the gap between domestic capital demand and supply. Given this background the paper studies the relationship between the different types of foreign capital flows in the Southern Africa Development Region (SADC) region – foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, cross border bank flows (CBF), overseas development assistance (ODA) – and domestic savings and investment, employing the panel cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares method (DOLS). The empirical results reveal that there is a strong positive relationship between domestic investment and domestic savings, FDI and remittances. These findings indicate that FDI remittances help in overcoming the limits on the domestic capital formation in the SADC region through permitting a rate of investment which is in excess of that which can be generated by domestic savings. Important policy implications on attracting foreign capital flows are discussed in the paper.     

股票资金流强弱指数的结构突变研究

以股票资金流强弱指数为研究对象,根据时间序列分析方法,运用修正的ICSS算法,基于上证A股2010年5月4日至2015年5月22日的日交易数据,得到上证A股的结构突变点,并对所得到的变点进行了实证分析和应用研究。结果表明：上证A股资金流强弱指数是平稳的非正态时间序列;上海股票市场具有波动聚集性,而且是政策市场;构建了股票资金流强弱指数判别法,用以便捷的对资金流强弱指数结构突变点进行分类。     

基于SEM模型的观光工厂旅游地居民参与研究——以柳州市为例

旅游地居民作为旅游开发活动的重要利益相关方之一,其支持与否、参与与否会对旅游开发活动产生十分重大的影响。通过对柳州市居民的问卷调查,运用实证的方法统计相关数据,并借鉴前人的理论构建结构方程模型以分析之。分析结果表明当地居民对观光工厂旅游开发的支持和参与存在一定的盲目性,对该事物的认识有非理性成分;居民在参与观光工厂旅游开发过程中的利益诉求是物质与精神并重的;基层居民的参与度会更容易受到参与能力不足的影响;在开发的初期,参与能力的影响十分有限,但后期的变化应予以关注。     

数据足迹视域下的南粤古驿道旅游地形象感知研究——以河源粤赣古驿道为例

随着互联网技术的发展及自媒体时代的到来,移动互联网的旅游消费比例日益增长,游客体验交互效应及价值共创成为常态。旅游数字足迹挖掘与研究,有利于以游客体验核心价值、最佳利益为出发点,构建服务型企业管理制度层面的口碑及业界诚信,从而实现企业、员工与游客最终的共赢。基于南粤古驿道旅游地形象感知研究视角,选取河源粤赣古驿道为研究区域,运用ROST网络文本分析、百度指数等数据挖掘方法,从多维度、多视角开展旅游地形象感知研究,对河源粤赣古驿道及其沿线景区开发、游客满意度优化提供针对性策略。     

基于生态位理论的弱势旅游地发展态势及开发策略研究——以粤北山区为例

为优化粤北山区产业结构调整,促进区域旅游经济均衡协调发展,收集2013—2017年粤北山区5个城市旅游资源、旅游市场、社会经济、生态环境四大维度的统计数据,运用生态位理论,对其旅游生态位发展态势、生态位扩充程度进行评测与排序。从分析结果可见,韶关综合生态位排名第一,为粤北山区旅游城市中的双核心城市。韶关、梅州旅游业发展态势良好,处于扩充状态,其区域旅游业影响力日益增强。通过粤北山区旅游生态位综合分析,可见要实现区域协调均衡发展,重点在于搭建区域旅游一体化合作平台,致力于产业集聚与优势互补,注重旅游经济投入与产出比优化,从而实现弱势旅游地的突围与转型。     

Capital account flows,consumption ratios and the middle‐income trap

The existing literature suggests that it is important to understand the factors that may slow the transition of an economy from middle to high income. Many factors have been suggested as promoting or retarding economic growth, but little attention has been paid to the roles of the capital account and consumption ratio. Using panel regressions involving 48 countries over the 1950–2013 period as well as employing extreme bounds analysis, we find that foreign investment outflows are associated with a mature economy and that there is an optimal consumption ratio that must be surpassed to break out of middle‐income status. These findings are robust to an extreme bounds analysis incorporating a wide range of variables potentially related to growth performance.     

Do capital flows drive credit growth and consumption in Central and Eastern Europe?

Domestic credit expansion in CEE economies, fuelled in part by foreign capital inflows, helped increase household welfare before the 2008 financial crisis caused a contraction across the region. How strong are the linkages between the current account, domestic credit and consumer spending? This study compiles a quarterly dataset of domestic credit as a share of GDP for 11 CEE European Union members and isolates structural breaks in the series’ growth rates that often align with the 2008 crisis. Vector autoregressive methods, particularly impulse response functions, show that increased current-account deficits lead to increased consumption in six of the 11 countries and increased credit growth in three, and that shocks to credit growth increase consumption in six countries. Capital inflows significantly increase consumption through domestic credit in Slovenia, while the Baltics show a large share of significant effects.     

Elections and Capital Flows

This paper investigates the extent to which elections affect capital flows. I find little evidence of political capital flow cycles in advanced economies. In emerging and developing countries, however, presidential elections significantly lower preelection foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows but have no effect on other types of capital flows. Furthermore, I find evidence that these cycles are not caused by economic crises related to elections or preelection manipulation of policy variables. These results suggest that uncertainty about future government policies, which should have greater impact on more irreversible forms of capital flows like FDI, may be an important factor in generating this cycle.     

“长三角”旅游服务质量预警机制建立的研究

打造中国旅游的“金三角”,苏、浙、沪三地必须实现旅游资源的整合。而建立有效的旅游服务质量预警机制是实现旅游资源整合的基础。     

广州旅游营销策略探讨

目前,各城市间的旅游竞争越来越激烈,在未来的旅游城市发展中,旅游营销越来越重要。就此,本文通过对广州旅游产业发展现状、旅游特色和营销策略的不足进行分析,提出了改进广州旅游营销的方法,促使广州城市旅游能够健康、稳定、可持续发展。