Trends in Agricultural Incomes: An Analysis at the Select Crop and State Levels in India

India's agricultural sector is at a crossroads, facing challenges of stagnation in crop yields, non‐remunerative prices, falling crop incomes and tardy responses from public service systems. There are reports of peasant suicides due to non‐profitability of farming. However, scant empirical evidence is available on changes in real income and wages in the Indian agricultural sector. The present study uses data from the National Accounts Statistics and Cost of Cultivation Surveys to analyse the changes in real income and discusses the underlying reasons. The study reveals that the purchasing power of farmers has remained low and has worsened over recent years. The value of crop output has increased, but a disproportionate rise in input costs has resulted in a fall in crop incomes in several states, with the agriculturally developed Punjab being an exception. Interestingly, real wage rates for agricultural labour have shown an increasing trend, indicating improvement in the welfare of labour.     

集体林权改革下的林业经济增长因素分析——以辽宁省为例

根据1982～2008年辽宁省林业经济发展的相关数据,采用C-D生产函数模型,实证分析了林业投资、劳动力、林业科技进步、产权制度等要素对辽宁省林业经济增长的影响。结果表明,集体林改下辽宁省林业经济整体呈快速上升趋势,27年间资本、劳动力、科技进步的产出弹性分别为0.4,0.55,0.06,对经济增长的贡献率分别为37.7%,19.15%和43.15%,林改作为政策制度因素对于林业经济增长具有正向的推动作用。     

金融自由化、非对称调整与新兴市场的金融危机

二战后,新兴市场经济(EMS)也存在广泛的金融抑制。抑制政策可能有短期增长效应;但本文理论模型显示,长期内,竞争机制会耗散金融租金,EMS实际增长率低于有保障和自然的增长率。70年代末期以来,EMS放松了金融规制。因价格调整快于数量调整、金融市场调整快于产品和劳动力市场,金融自由化产生负产出效应。负产出是基本的风险源。来自于金融、实际部门的任何冲击以及制度与政策失灵,都可能引发金融危机。抑制程度越深,负产出效应越大,人均产出越低,自由化过程中发生金融危机的概率也越大。本文使用25个国家1980～2001年的数据,以二元选择模型对上述假说进行实证检验。     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

我国液态生物质燃料适度发展规模研究——宏观经济视角的分析

本文通过构建简单的总供给一总需求模型,分析石油数量调控政策、潜在产出水平与均衡价格上涨之间的数理逻辑关系,进而间接得到液态生物质燃料适度规模问题的一般分析框架,为进一步的定量分析打下坚实基础。研究结果表明:为达到潜在产出水平和一定的价格上涨水平,不同的现实条件要求政府实行不同的石油数量调控政策。     

输出理论对大学英语口语与写作教学的启示

输出理论是指在学习第二门语言遇到问题时会促使我们进一步学习这种语言的理论。正因为意识到了学习时遇到问题,学习者就会改善它的输出,从而学习有关这门语言的新知识。尽管苏安宣称这种输出并不是第二语言知识获得的唯一途径,但在语言产生的相关大脑活动中,输出理论促使了第二语言的学习,它有别于输入理论,却又可以加强输入。本文在介绍了苏安的输出理论的基础上,阐述了这一理论对英语口语和写作教学的指导意义。     

UNDERSTANDING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL AND EURO AREA OUTPUT VOLATILITY

This paper addresses two main questions. First, it seeks to establish whether the stylized facts of the ‘great moderation’ that have been documented for the UK and US economies can be found for the Euro area. Second, it explores possible explanations for any changes that have occurred in the volatility of Euro area output fluctuations. In examining why business cycles have moderated, much of the existing literature has tended to concentrate on a few key factors. These include shifts in the structure of the economy, improved monetary policy and a ‘good luck’ factor. This paper, however, follows a relatively new branch of the great moderation literature by focusing on whether international business cycle linkages have changed in a way that may have perpetuated the dampening in Euro area output fluctuations. The results show Euro area output fluctuations to have significantly reduced in variability over the last quarter of a century. The results go on to highlight that, although Euro area cycles differ little from rest of the world cycles, the moderation in Euro area output fluctuations is only marginally due to changes in international business cycle linkages and smaller international and domestic shock variances.     

财政受托责任的理论分析

有效实现财政受托责任,首先必须明确政府各部门的财政受托责任;其次应该有正式的法律制度来保证财政受托责任的实现。针对责任的回应性,狭义政府部门的财政受托责任主要通过产出预算来实现。     

生产函数在机械工业总产值目标预测中的应用

本文研究探讨了用生产函数模型进行机械工业总产值发展目标预测的方法和步骤.论述了资金产出弹性(α)和劳动产出弹性(β)的取值依据,对(α、β的经济含义进行了客观的解释。