略论新中国建国初期的城乡物资交流

城乡物资交流的组织和开展,使城乡关系逐渐恢复正常,扩大了广大农村农副产品和土特产品的销路,提高了农民群众的购买力;促进了城市工商业的发展和趋向繁荣,增加了国家的税收,减少了财政上的困难,物价更稳定,对于建国初期国民经济的恢复和发展起了积极重要的作用。     

Growth in manufacturing output in Ireland between the Union and the Famine: Some evidence

Pre-Famine Ireland is perceived to have undergone a process of deindustrialization as a result of trade with Great Britain. This article presents evidence that manufacturing output growth was positive and sufficient to keep pace with or exceed population growth. The textile industry in which the bulk of the manufacturing labour force was employed performed relatively poorly, though this was largely due to an internal shock in the form of technical and organisational change in the linen industry rather than trade with Britain. Concentration on the performance of the textile sector has distracted attention from the good performance in other sectors.     

Analysis of Instantaneous and Early Failures in Weibull Distribution

There are many situations in life testing experiment where an item fail instantaneously and hence the observed lifetime is reported as zero. The items that fail prematurely are called early failures. We propose a modified Weibull distribution as a suitable model to represent such situations by mixture of a singular distribution at zero and a two parameter Weibull distribution. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and their asymptotic distributions. The methods are illustrated on drying of woods under different experiments and schedules reported by Vanmann (Research report, 1991:2).     

Antecedents and consequences of the perceived adjustment of Japanese expatriates in the USA

The present study was designed to better understand the antecedents and consequences of expatriate adjustment in an international assignment. The researchers surveyed Japanese expatriates assigned to the United States. Structural equation modeling was utilized to test our hypotheses and model. The results indicated that previous knowledge of the host country, language proficiency, willingness to communicate and perception of the novelty of the host culture were differentially related to expatriates' adjustment to the host country. General and work adjustments were negatively related to expatriates' intent to return early. In addition, interrelationships among the adjustment dimensions were examined and the results indicated that general adjustment leads to work adjustment, which, in turn, influences interactional adjustment. Implications for future research are presented.     

Environmental versus Human-Induced Scarcity in the Commons: Do They Trigger the Same Response?

We study appropriation strategies in common pool resources where extinction is a credible threat. Here we present an experimental study of the appropriation of common pool resources in a dynamic setting where resource availability depends on the initial environmental characteristics of the common resource and on human-induced resource depletion due to users’ appropriation patterns. Our results show that initial resource scarcity limits appropriation by inducing an initial caution among users that persists throughout of the game. Additionally, we find that subjects restrain their appropriation strategies when scarcity increases. However, this concern for resource scarcity is not enough to prevent resource depletion. Agents do not counteract the previous rounds’ appropriation strategies but follow the appropriation trend. High appropriation levels are followed by higher appropriation strategies, thus promoting the well known tragedy of the commons. Often concern for resource preservation is not great enough to limit appropriation.      

基于方差分解法的中国股市泡沫检验问题研究

基于理性投机泡沫理论,采用方差分解法对2005年5月到2012年9月上证综指是否存在泡沫以及泡沫的严重程度进行实证检验,并将检验结果同动态自回归法得到的结果进行比较。研究发现该方法能更有效地检测出我国股市中存在的严重投机性泡沫。     

我国出口贸易摩擦预警机制的现状、问题与对策

我国“入世”以后,为了保证出口的稳定增长,维持正常的出口秩序,迅速建立了出口贸易摩擦预警机制并已发挥了重要的作用。然而,出口贸易摩擦出现的一些新特点,对正在完善中的预警机制提出了新的挑战。本文对我国出口贸易摩擦预警机制的现状和问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策。     

Political booms and currency crises

This paper shows evidence that political booms, defined as the rise in governments’ popularity, are associated with a higher likelihood of currency crises. The reasoning behind this finding is that prudent economic policies to address underlying weaknesses in the economy may be political costly for incumbent governments in the short-term. Hence, popularity-concerned governments may not have enough incentives to take such corrective actions in a timely manner. This approach, in turn, can deteriorate economic fundamentals and increase related risks in the economy which can eventually lead to crises. This paper sheds light on this phenomenon in the case of currency crises, suggesting that currency crises can be viewed as “political booms gone bust” events. Moreover, it finds that higher international reserves, higher exports, and a higher degree of financial openness alleviate the effect of political booms on currency crises.     

新中国成立初期城市私有住宅公有化过程及其启示

当前,我国城市住宅短缺问题突出,政府城市住宅政策尚不完善。有鉴于此,回顾和总结新中国成立初期的城市住房政策就颇有意义。在新中国成立初期,我国同样面临城市住宅短缺的问题。当时,私有住宅占城市住宅总量的绝大多数。中国政府采取两步走的公有化策略,公私并存和社会主义改造。通过对城市住宅的公有化,政府手中掌握了大量的城市住宅资源,有利于管理和分配。但在公有化过程中私人房主的利益一而再地被忽视和损害。回看新中国成立初期的那段历史,可以为我们今天城市住宅制度的制定提供一些启示,一是,住宅制度的制定需遵循经济规律;二是,满足百姓的住宅需求是住宅制度的根本目标。     

A marginal analysis guided technology evaluation and selection

Making decisions on strategic investments, such as early stage manufacturing technology (MT), is a complicated task. Early stage technologies are usually costly, and surrounded by uncertainty. The potential benefits are often hard to quantify prior to implementation. Thus, how could managers make good decisions in a high-risk, technically complex business when the information they need to make those decisions comes largely from the project champions who are competing against one another for resources? Traditionally, in this problem domain, decisions are made based upon gut-feeling and past experience, sometimes with the support of some multi-criteria decision-support tools. The criteria evaluation process is very subjective and relies heavily on managers’ experience, knowledge, as well as intuition. Thus, the evaluation approach is often not effectively carried out as there is lack of visibility and traceability in the decision making process. The impact of this scenario is that managers are not confident that resources are being optimised and applied to a mixed portfolio of projects to maximise benefits. This paper proposes a marginal analysis directed branch and bound approach for evaluating and selecting early stage manufacturing technology (MT) projects. A case study is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach. Implications of the proposed approach to practitioners and academia are discussed and future research outlined.