关于国家大安全观与小康安全建设思路的探讨

全面小康社会并非仅仅是一个富裕程度的概念，还是一个生产力水平、国际竞争力的概念。全面建设小康社会，追求的是物质、精神、生态、安全文明的共同发展。所以。衡量小康社会的标准除了经济指标外，还必须包括关乎国计民生的社会人文指标。     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.     

Jointness in production and farmers' willingness to supply non-marketed ecosystem services

This paper highlights how farmers' willingness to supply non-marketed ecosystem services (ES) is influenced by whether or not the non-marketed ES are produced jointly with agricultural products. When marketed products and non-marketed ES share some production inputs the production relationships between the two may be complementary, competitive or substitutive. Using a cost minimization framework, it is shown how complementary relationships lead to costless voluntary provision of non-marketed ES (typically the case for ES that are supportive of provisioning ES for marketed farm products). It is also shown how competitive production relationships lead to provision of non-marketed ES at lower cost than when non-marketed ES are direct substitutes for farm products or are produced outside of agriculture. The paper closes by showing how the minimum willingness to accept (WTA) payment for ES that are complementary/competitive is less than or equal to the minimum WTA for the same ES produced in substitute or independent production relationships.     

Incentive Regulation of Prices When Costs are Sunk

We present a model featuring irreversible investment, economies of scale, uncertain future demand and capital prices, and a regulator who sets the firm’s output price according to the cost structure of a hypothetical replacement firm. We show that a replacement firm has a fundamental cost advantage over the regulated firm: it can better exploit the economies of scale because it has not had to confront the historical uncertainties faced by the regulated firm. We show that setting prices so low that a replacement firm is just willing to participate is insufficient to allow the regulated firm to expect to break even whenever it has to invest. Thus, unless the regulator is willing to incur costly monitoring to ensure the firm invests, revenue must be allowed in excess of that required for a replacement firm to participate. This contrasts with much of the existing literature, which argues that the market value of a regulated firm should equal the cost of replacing its existing assets. We also obtain a closed-form solution for the regulated firm’s output price when this price is set at discrete intervals. In contrast to rate of return regulation, we find that resetting the regulated price more frequently can increase the risk faced by the firm’s owners, and that this is reflected in a higher output price and a higher weighted-average cost of capital.     

Racing in two dimensions

In this paper we study an industry in which there is an ongoing sequence of R&D races between two firms. Firms are engaged in product innovation. Products are horizontally and vertically differentiated. There are two key characteristics/dimensions to products, and the level at which these are embodied in products can be increased by R&D. At each time firms can spend R&D on improving their product in one or both dimensions. We allow the possibility of economies scope — so R&D undertaken in one dimension can spillover to the other. The question we are interested in is whether a firm that is ahead in a single dimension but behind in another will focus all its R&D effort in the area in which it is ahead (product specialisation), or whether it will try to do R&D in both dimensions in the hope that it might get ahead in both and end up with a superproduct that dominates in both characteristics. The outcome of this R&D competition determines a Markov transition probability matrix determining the evolution of the industry. We show that when the R&D technology is characterized by constant returns then the only steady-state outcome is one in which the economy stays forever in a position in which one firm produces a super-product and the other gives up doing R&D altogether. This outcome is unaffected by the degree of economies of scope. When the R&D technology is characterised by decreasing returns, then the industry will visit all states and so will exhibit both product specialisation and superproduct dominance at various times. Now the extent of economies of scope matters and we show that the greater the extent of economies of scope, the less likely is the industry to exhibit product dominance, and the more likely it is to exhibit product specialisation.     

中国银行业规模经济和范围经济的实证研究——基于复合成本函数的分析

本文首次在国内利用复合成本函数估计我国国有商业银行和股份制商业银行1998——2003年的成本函数,并计算出各自的规模经济和范围经济。复合成本函数把投入价格的对数二次项和产出的二次项结合起来,具有优良的实证研究性质。实证研究结果表明:时间对我国银行业的规模经济和范围经济影响不显著;国有商业银行和股份制商业银行都存在着轻微的规模不经济和范围不经济,国有银行略好于股份制银行。我国商业银行的两种产出——存款和贷款不存在成本互补性。     

我国对外直接投资主要宏观影响因素的实证研究

影响一国对外直接投资的宏观经济因素很多,不同的国家或经济体、不同的宏观因素对对外直接投资的作用程度并不相同。本文针对我国的经济现实,主要以我国对外贸易、资源需求、工资水平为影响我国对外直接投资的主要宏观解释变量,利用1993-2006年的数据进行计量分析。结果显示,对外贸易、资源需求、工资水平因素都对我国对外直接投资有显著的影响。本文还分析了产生这种结果的可能原因并提出了相应的建议。     

基于宏程序的椭圆轮廓的数控车加工

宏程序在数控编程中有着广泛的应用。文章结合两种椭圆曲线宏程序编程实例,介绍了宏程序在非圆曲线中的编制方法和技巧,分析表明:宏程序数控编程具有编程快捷和程序短小精悍的显著特点,尤其适用于一些含非圆曲线零件的数控编程加工。     

商业银行信用风险与宏观经济——基于压力测试的研究

本文采用压力测试框架,研究了宏观经济波动对商业银行信用风险的影响。文章以不良贷款率度量信用风险,以名义GDP增长率、广义货币供应量（M2）增速、居民消费价格指数（CPI）以及房地产销售价格指数作为宏观经济变量,建立了合适的宏观压力测试模型。在GDP增速放缓、CPI上升、M2增速下降的压力情景下,预测了2011年第一季度到第四季度的不良贷款率的变化路径。实证结果表明在压力情景下商业银行的不良贷款率将会显著上升。     

宏观统计数据质量规范研究

根据国内外宏观统计数据质量规范演变的历程,在界定宏观统计数据质量新内涵的基础上,依据国际货币基金组织评价数据质量的规范,本文对我国宏观数据质量的规范进行了实证研究。我国宏观数据质量在金融统计数据、社会人口统计数据上与国际货币基金组织制定的数据公布通用系统(GDDS)一致,而财政统计数据与对外经济数据与GDDS尚存在差距;我国数据公布系统在金融统计和人口统计上与GDDS一致,在对外统计与财政统计上与GDDS存在一定差异。