Why Money Growth Determines Inflation in the Long Run: Answering the Woodford Critique

Woodford argues that it is not appropriate to regard inflation in the steady state of New Keynesian models as determined by steady‐state money growth. Woodford instead argues that the intercept term in the monetary authority's interest rate policy rule determines steady‐state inflation. In this paper, I offer an alternative interpretation of steady‐state behavior, according to which it is appropriate to regard steady‐state inflation as determined by steady‐state money growth. The argument relies on traditional interpretations of the central bank's power in the long run and appeals to model properties that are common to textbook and New Keynesian analysis. According to this argument, the only way the central bank can control interest rates in the long run is via affecting inflation, and its only means available for determining inflation is by determining the money growth rate.     

我国货币需求的误差修正模型

依据协整理论对我国的货币需求函数进行了实证分析 ,并给出了我国货币需求的误差修正模型。     

我国流动性过剩的实证分析

本文从货币供求角度对我国流动性过剩问题进行实证分析.首先,通过构建我国广义货币需求模型,对我国广义货币需求量进行拟合,发现从2005年起我国明显出现流动性过剩问题.然后,从货币供求两个方面分析了我国流动性过剩产生的原因,外汇占款快速增长是导致广义货币供给过多的主要原因,而存款利率偏低、预期通货膨胀率提高和资本市场快速发展等都减少了广义货币需求.最后,从货币供求两方面分别提出解决我国流动性过剩的办法,除此之外,还可以有效利用流动性过剩来优化经济结构.     

Why is Inflation in China a Monetary Phenomenon？

This paper proposes that inflation in China during the post‐reform era (1978 onwards) is always a monetary phenomenon. We construct a multivariate dynamic model based on Friedman's quantity theory of money and use the standard Granger causality test to show that money growth contains significant predictive power for inflation during the underlying period. The finding is robust to alternative measures of monetary aggregates and both closed and open economy frameworks. The baseline finding of the paper indicates that quantitative tools remain the most important policy instruments for China to manage its inflation effectively.     

Bilateral Trade Balances: Evidence from Malaysia*

This study examines the impacts of real exchange rates on the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia with the USA, Japan and Singapore. The results for the long‐run cointegrating vectors show that depreciation or devaluation of real exchange rates will improve bilateral trade balances. In the short run, there is some evidence of the J‐curve phenomenon. Changes in real money supply contribute greatly to changes in real exchange rates. Generally, changes in real exchange rates contribute significantly to changes in bilateral trade balances. Monetary policy can be used to influence bilateral trade balances.     

Social isolation and social anxiety as drivers of generation Z's willingness to share personal information on social media

Generation Z's (gen z) sharing of personal information on social media is a growing phenomenon with significant ramifications. Existing research, however, focuses on examining the role of social and/or psychological factors and fails to consider how and when social, psychological, and organizational factors affect gen z's willingness to share personal information on social media. To fill this gap, we propose a conceptual model based on the tenets of sociometer theory, to understand the dynamics of gen z's willingness to share personal information while considering its process and boundary conditions. Using a sequential multi-study design, we conducted an experiment followed by a survey to test our hypotheses using data collected from gen z in India. Our findings show that when gen z feels socially isolated/anxious, they are more likely to share personal information on social media. The effect of social isolation on sharing of personal information increases when gen z fear that they are missing out on the rewarding experiences others are having, are engaged in repetitive negative thoughts and perceive their firm's privacy policy as transparent and ethical. Our findings provide a better understanding of why, how, and when gen z's are willing to share personal information on social media. We extend existing limited research on the psychological aspects of digital natives' interaction with modern technologies. Our results equip social media marketing and brand managers with the knowledge they need to increase gen z's willingness to share personal information.     

Financial literacy in the digital age—A research agenda

Digital innovations are transforming financial services and resulting changes in consumer behavior and personal money management. Diffusion of pervasive digital technologies offers individuals quick and easy access to various digital services bringing opportunities and challenges into their personal money management. The study aimed to explore how digitalization affects individuals' financial literacy and financial capability. As a result, we identified three main themes in the intersection of finance and digitalization: Fintech, Financial behavior in digital environments, and Behavioral interventions. We propose directions for measuring digital financial literacy, updates to the financial literacy curriculum, and developments of digital learning tools. Further, we highlight collaboration between the public and private sectors to create a fairer and more inclusive economic landscape. Our study contributes to existing research by proposing a framework for digital financial literacy and financial capability and a research agenda for future studies.     

通胀、通胀预期和货币政策——基于中国2001—2010年数据的实证研究

文章用两种方法测度了我国通胀预期：（1）未来物价预期指数衡量通胀预期;（2）ARMA模型对通胀的预测值。并计量分析了影响通胀预期的因素,结果显示：CPI上升、正产出缺口增加和广义货币供应量增加,是形成通胀预期的主要因素。利率、人民币汇率和食品价格对通胀预期的形成作用不显著和影响较小。因此,存款准备金率动态微调,是目前管理好通胀预期的最好选择。     

我国货币供应量、物价水平与经济增长之间关系的实证研究

针对我国2001～2010年季度数据,通过使用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验以及方差分解分析方法进行实证研究发现,长期内我国货币供给的变化与物价和产出的变化之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在一个单向的Granger因果关系:货币供给增长率是物价水平增长率的Granger原因,即长期内货币供应量仅对物价水平产生影响。最后根据实证分析结果对货币政策选择提出政策建议。     

Developing a better understanding of the complexities of visitor loyalty to Karijini National Park,Western Australia

Visitor loyalty is essential for the future of parks; however our knowledge of it is poor and confounded by conceptualisation and measurement issues with loyalty often considered a single construct. Furthermore, previous research has focussed on loyalty to a single destination rather than loyalty to a park system. This paper analyses the loyalty intentions of visitors to Karijini National Park, Western Australia. Relationships between loyalty measures to this park and to parks generally are explored. Rather than a single construct, loyalty was evidenced by three dimensions within an increasing hierarchy of effort – a) visiting another park, b) referring and recommending, and c) advocating, paying, volunteering, and visiting again. Visitors who wanted access to friendly, helpful rangers were more likely to undertake loyalty behaviours requiring greater effort. Further refining loyalty's multiple dimensions is an important focus for future research complemented by recent efforts to match loyalty measures with actual visiting behaviour.