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本文回顾了中国股市十多年来的政策干预历史,并总结了其中的规律所在:1997年前,政府干预呈现反转模式;1997年后,政府干预呈现趋势模式。文章对该规律的形成给出了行为解释,并据此提出了相关投资建议和政策建议。 相似文献
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股市中的过度反应与反应不足 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
过度反应与反应不足是股市投资中的两个异常行为,本文认为除了“输家——赢家效应”、“市盈率异常”以外,“井喷现象”也是过度反应的典型表现;反应不足则主要表现为“魅力股”或“价值股”等。过度反应与反应不足产生的主要原因是投资者存在过度自信、自我归因及保守性偏差等,常见的对策是反转策略和动量策略,本文分析了运用反转策略和动量策略的时机选择,以使其更具可操作性。 相似文献
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Roman Kräussl 《European Journal of Finance》2017,23(11):1059-1082
This paper investigates the impact of media pessimism on financial market returns and volatility in the long run. We hypothesize that media sentiment translates into investor sentiment. Based on the underreaction and overreaction hypotheses [Barberis, N., A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny. 1998. “A Model of Investor Sentiment.” Journal of Empirical Economics 49 (3): 307–343], we suggest that media pessimism has an effect on market performance after a lag of several months. We construct a monthly media pessimism indicator by taking the ratio of the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined negative words to the number of newspaper articles that contain predetermined positive words in the headline and in the lead paragraph. Our results indicate that media pessimism is associated with negative (positive) market returns 14–17 (24–25) months in advance and positive market volatilities 1–20 months in advance. Our results are statistically and economically significant. We find evidence for Granger causality of media pessimism on market performance. Our media pessimism indicator possesses additional predictive power for the Baker and Wurgler [2006. “Investor Sentiment and the Cross-section of Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance 61 (4): 1645–1680] investor sentiment index and the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. 相似文献
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许多研究表明,我国证券市场反向策略在短期内获利性较为显著,而动量策略在长期内可以获得超额收益,即中国股市具有短期反应过度和长期反应不足的双重特征。这一现象不仅动摇了有效市场假说的理论基础,而且对现有的行为定价理论模型构成了强有力的挑战。本文尝试从投资者情绪和投资者异质性两个角度对这一异象进行解释。研究发现,在投资者情绪高涨(或低落)阶段,市场更容易反应过度(或反应不足);对于不同类型的投资者,他们的信息反应模式也不尽相同,各自主导了市场在短期内和在长期内的整体表现。这一发现为中国股市在市场非理性反应上所呈现的独有特征提供了很好的阐释。 相似文献
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从行为金融的角度出发,以投资者过度反应和反应不足为理论基础,采用沪市A股2005-2009年间的数据对审计质量和盈余公告效应二者关系进行了检验。结果发现,审计质量能够加剧盈余公告效应幅度,它既能加剧"好消息"公司股价的向上漂移,也能够加剧"坏消息"公司股价的向下漂移。 相似文献
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We propose short-term averages of daily stock-level trading volume and return variability as proxies for latent corporate news flow. Conditioning momentum strategies on these two proxies give a significant boost to winner-minus-loser alphas. Regardless of the portfolio formation and holding periods, price drift is larger after elevated levels of volume and variability, supporting the view that prices underreact to news. This pattern is not driven by micro-cap stocks and it is robust to corrections for systematic risk factors and stock characteristics such as liquidity and credit quality. 相似文献
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Steven X. Zheng 《The Financial Review》2007,42(1):75-97
I examine the relation between initial public offering (IPO) long‐run stock performance and the amount of cash raised by the firm in the offering. I find that IPOs raising more cash have poorer long‐run performance. The result is robust to different measurement methods. The evidence suggests that the market underreacts to free cash flow related agency problems in IPOs. Consistent with this interpretation, I find that IPO long‐run performance is more sensitive to the new cash raised in the offering if an IPO firm has lower capital expenditure or higher opening bid‐ask spread. 相似文献
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过度自信理论及其对金融市场的影响 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文介绍了投资者过度自信理论,说明了导致投资者过度自信的原因,分析投资者过度自信对金融市场交易量、市场效率、波动性和投资者预期效用的影响,指出了由于投资者的过度自信特征导致了市场的反应过度和反应不足。投资者的过度自信特征具有消极作用,也具有积极的作用。 相似文献