浅析我国国际收支

20011年4月10日,海关总署发布的数据显示我国第一季度出现10.2亿的贸易逆差,这是自2004年以来,出现的首个季度逆差.但在在各方密切注视之下,中国6月份的贸易顺差猛增至222.7亿美元.虽然6月进口的增速回落明显快于出口,但不可否认的是近年来贸易顺差一直是我国国际收支的大问题.     

中日经贸架构下的ODA解读

围绕ODA这一不失为一种善举的日本对华政府援助，近期不断传出与其初衷相悖的声音。日方目前已把ODA传递中日友好的经济行为赋予其深重的负面影响中日关系的政治、外交法码的性质。肯定ODA对中国社会经济发展做出过一定贡献，同时须正视ODA91％以上的有偿性以及由于日元升值所导致中国的损失。目前ODA的去存已远远超出其问题本身，涉及中日间的资源、领土及政治等两国关系的实质问题。中方需要政治智慧并确立相应科学的对策。     

How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X

Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in the production of the iPhone X have moved up along the global value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25.4% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated in Japan, South Korea, and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistical distortion of the China–US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a USD332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of the value added, however the deficit is a mere USD104. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because the foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the CNY would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average, and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the CNY would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive U.S. tariffs by depreciating the CNY is impossible.     

西乡话声母略说

西乡话属于中原官话关中片,邻近西安。西乡话与中原官话关中片的代表西安方言存在着不同。西乡话声母共有22个,声母[nⅡl]相混,pf组字的发音也与西安方言不同,这些差异形成的原因与地理条件以及移民迁徙有关。     

Time-varying risk attitude and the foreign exchange market behavior

This paper presents a heterogeneous agents model of the foreign exchange market in which agents’ risk attitudes vary over time due to psychological factors emphasized in prospect theory. We find that psychological component and risk-profit elasticity play significant roles in exchange rate expectations formation and investment behavior. Although all agents show more risk-averse after the crisis, the extent to which their risk attitude responds to the crisis varies due to heterogeneous forecasting rules as well as the changes of trading environment and central bank intervention. Moreover, time-varying risk attitudes can help explain the forward premium puzzle. These findings have implications for the exchange rate expectation formation theories and foreign exchange market stability policies.     

中国煤炭流动格局与利用效率的空间关联分析

在煤炭市场更加开放的背景下,各地区间煤炭价格联系和煤炭贸易关系更加密切。在对中国煤炭产消格局和区域间供求平衡分析的基础上,运用空间均衡模型分析区域煤炭流动格局合理性,研究表明:中国煤炭严重短缺趋势仍将持续,煤炭流动格局日趋合理。同时,运用探索性空间数据分析方法对中国各地区万元GDP煤炭消耗量的空间关联特征进行分析,研究表明:中国各地区万元GDP煤炭消耗量存在明显的空间集聚性,全国各地区的煤炭资源利用效率均在不断提升;煤炭由资源利用效率低且经济欠发达地区流向资源利用效率高且经济较发达地区,煤炭资源赋存和煤炭利用效率与经济发展水平均呈负相关。     

中国国际收支“双顺差”现象短期内难以逆转

从1990～2008年,19年的时间里,中国的国际收支呈现出"双顺差"现象,延续时间之久,差额数值之大实属世界罕见。本文分别对中国国际收支中经常项目顺差和资本与金融项目顺差进行了原因分析,指出消费、税收、宏观经济政策、人民币可自由兑换等方面存在的问题是"双顺差"现象的根源所在,得出短期内"双顺差"现象不可能改变的结论。     

人民币升值压力分析及政策建议

2005年7月人民币汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币汇率振荡走高。进入2008年,人民币升值趋势不减,已先后45余次创出汇改以来新高。本文结合汇率改革以来的人民币汇率变动情况,对未来人民币汇率的变动趋势做一些粗浅的分析并提出相应的政策建议。     

Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency order?

The recent financial crisis highlighted some of the underlying defects in the dollar-based reserve system. This paper argues that the era of the US hegemonic stability and unipolarity, which provided the foundation for the dollar’s sustenance as the pre-eminent global reserve currency, has already peaked and the global economy of the future will revolve around a multipolar order. The rise of China, along with other emerging markets, is rapidly redrawing the traditional Western dominated global economic system. The structural challenges facing the American economy along with the extraordinary expansion of Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the explosion of the US government debt will diminish the attractiveness of the dollar standard going forward. Our analysis suggests that a tripolar currency order—consisting of the dollar, the yuan and the euro—will replace the dollar standard in the coming decades.     

Chinese trade price and Yuan's valuation

This paper studies how the major economic events would have affected Chinese yuan's nominal exchange rate against US dollar from 1989 to 2013. The traditional average treatment effect estimation methods cannot be used to consistently estimate yuan's pegged exchange rate. We develop a new estimation strategy by combining a novel panel data method (proposed by Hisao, Ching and Wan) and the purchasing power parity theory. Based on this new estimation strategy, we find that during the period of pegging to US dollar, Chinese yuan were undervalued. Before the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the pegged exchange rate regime starting from January 1994 made the yuan undervalued by 2.62%. China's accession to WTO caused yuan undervalued by 36.60%. After the reform of Chinese exchange rate policy in July 2005, the undervaluation of the yuan was reduced to only 0.76%. Yuan was undervalued again by 20.43% because of 2008 China's economy stimulus package. The policy reform in June 2010 made yuan overvalued by 14.40%. We conclude that Chinese fixed exchange rate policy indeed undervalued the yuan, especially after its accession to WTO. The recent reforms of Chinese exchange rate policy made progresses in re‐evaluating the yuan.