Econometric analysis of present value models when the discount factor is near one

This paper develops asymptotic econometric theory to help understand data generated by a present value model with a discount factor near one. A leading application is to exchange rate models. A key assumption of the asymptotic theory is that the discount factor approaches one as the sample size grows. The finite sample approximation implied by the asymptotic theory is quantitatively congruent with the modest departures from random walk behavior that are typically found and with imprecise estimation of a well-studied regression relating spot and forward exchange rates.     

Commercial software,adware, and consumer privacy

I study the choice between selling new software commercially and bundling it with ads and distributing it for free as adware. Adware allows advertisers to send targeted information to consumers which improves their purchasing decisions, but also entails a loss of privacy. I show that adware is more profitable when the perceived quality of the software is relatively low, when tracking technology improves, when consumers benefit more from information on consumer products and are less likely to receive it from external sources. I also show that improvements in the technology of display ads will lead to less violation of privacy and will benefit consumers, that depending on the software's quality, there are either too many or too few display ads in equilibrium, and that from a social perspective, adware dominates commercial software.     

Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals

We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies. The model obtains good in-sample fit and, more importantly, encouraging out-of-sample forecasting results at horizons ranging from one-week to one month. Specifically, we obtain statistically significant improvements upon the hard-to-beat random-walk model using traditional statistical measures of forecasting error at all horizons. Moreover, our model obtains a great improvement when we use the direction of change metric, which has more economic relevance than other loss measures. With this measure, our model performs much better at all forecasting horizons than a naive model that predicts the exchange rate as an equal chance to go up or down, with statistically significant improvements.     

Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets

‘Valuation effects’ can imply that the traditional current account is an inaccurate measure of the change in the net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper uses new developments in the analysis of portfolio choice in general equilibrium to investigate valuation effects in a two-country model. Broadly speaking, the valuation effects in the model correspond to those observed in the data. But there is a key distinction between ‘unanticipated’ and ‘anticipated’ valuation effects. Unanticipated effects can be large, dominating the movement in NFA, but anticipated effects arise only at higher orders of approximation and are small for reasonable parameterizations.     

The effects of direct storage subsidies under limited rationality: a general equilibrium analysis

We study here the effects of a public subsidy to private storage set up at world level. To simulate the welfare effects and impacts on market fluctuations of this subsidy, we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model assuming imperfect expectations. We also perform different statistical analysis based on our CGE results and show that the storage subsidy can have the undesired effect of destabilizing agricultural markets, depending on the form of economic agents’ price expectations and on the structure of the shocks impacting the agricultural production.     

The Western Australian Convicts

British convicts transported to Western Australia between 1850 and 1868 were not as positively selected regarding their human capital as early historical accounts suggest. The heights of the convicts were not statistically different from those of British prisoners who were not transported. While few were skilled, the proportion of construction workers was higher than expected, consistent with selection for the needs of the colonial government's works on infrastructure. Data on inmates of Fremantle Prison allow validation of height measurements and occupational statements in the convict list. Australian-born prisoners were taller than those who came from Britain as free immigrants.     

FORECASTING US INFLATION USING DYNAMIC GENERAL‐TO‐SPECIFIC MODEL SELECTION

We forecast US inflation using a standard set of macroeconomic predictors and a dynamic model selection and averaging methodology that allows the forecasting model to change over time. Pseudo out‐of‐sample forecasts are generated from models identified from a multipath general‐to‐specific algorithm that is applied dynamically using rolling regressions. Our results indicate that the inflation forecasts that we obtain employing a short rolling window substantially outperform those from a well‐established univariate benchmark, and contrary to previous evidence, are considerably robust to alternative forecast periods.     

Expectations and optimal monetary policy: A stability problem revisited

A landmark result in the optimal monetary policy design literature is that fundamental-based interest rate rules invariably lead to rational expectations equilibria (REE) that are not stable under adaptive learning. In this paper, we make a novel information assumption that private agents cannot observe aggregate fundamental shocks, and use simple linear forecasting rules for learning. We find that with fundamental-based rules, there exist limited information equilibria that are stable under learning. Moreover, there are multiple equilibria. Learning can be used as a selection tool to identify a unique equilibrium.     

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in the USA: A Forecast‐Augmented VAR Approach

This paper formulates a forward‐looking monetary policy function for the USA in a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model, by using forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, in addition to the ex post realised variables used in a standard VAR. Since this forecast‐augmented VAR (FOAVAR) uses both forecasted and realised variables, and the standard VAR uses only realised variables, the standard VAR is nested in the FOAVAR. I find that the Fed responds to forecasted macroeconomic variables more significantly than realised variables. I also find that the monetary policy shock in the FOAVAR generates impulse responses of variables that are consistent with the predictions of economic theories, while the policy shock in the standard VAR causes a price puzzle: an increase in the price level due to a contractionary policy shock. These results suggest that a monetary policy function identified in a standard VAR, by using only realised macroeconomic variables, may incorrectly represent the Fed's policy function.