Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

Long‐run Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Singapore's Tourism and the Economy

This study employs recent Singaporean tourism survey data, the updated Singaporean input–output tables and a computable general equilibrium model to gauge the long‐run effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and selected policy responses. The simulation results suggest that the global financial crisis has had mild negative long‐run effects on the overall development of Singapore's economy, and that the GST deduction policy ought to offset this negative effect.     

Time scale evaluation of economic forecasts

A maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform is used to obtain time scale decompositions of economic forecasts and their errors. The generated time scale components can be used in loss measures and tests for comparing forecast accuracy to evaluate whether the forecasts accurately capture the cyclical features of the data.     

Learning and Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve Models

The extant literature is split on the best measure of marginal cost in the New Keynesian Philips Curve, with the output gap and the labor share being the most commonly advocated proxy measures. Which one is the best measure? In this article, I assume that agents update their understanding and expectation period by period, a learning process. In terms of econometrics, I use a recursive Vector Autoregression approach and conduct a forecasting exercise that considers updating of information sets used for formation of expectation. I find that the traditional output gap measure is a more significant variable explaining the dynamics of the U.S. inflation rate, as compared with a measure of the labor income share. Furthermore, the role of the output gap cannot be replaced using lagged values of inflation. Instead, both the output gap and lags of the actual inflation rate are important determinants of inflation.     

Benchmark Bonds Interactions under Regime Shifts

In the present paper we examine the interactions among five benchmark ten year government bonds, namely those of the USA, Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. Our aim is to illustrate empirically a net of interactions existing among the major bond markets of Europe and the US market taking into account shifts in the underlying stochastic processes. For this purpose, differing from the rest of the relevant empirical literature, after specifying the long run equilibrium relations we estimate the linkages between the bond markets as subject to hidden Markov chains, by applying the Markov Switching Vector Error Correction framework (MS‐VECM). This formulation is found to efficiently reflect the shifts brought about by significant economic events, such as the European monetary unification. As a result we illustrate different short‐run relations referring to the periods before and after the monetary union. Overall, our empirical results indicate that stronger interactions among the markets of the system exist in the period after the EMU. Also, by means of a variance decomposition analysis we assess leader‐follower relations which indicate that the benchmark status of bonds has changed since the introduction of the common monetary policy framework in Europe.     

Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34

We show how the silver standard transmitted world silver price fluctuations into China and made the Chinese price level closely linked to the world silver price. Inflation was transmitted between 1929 and 1931 when the world silver price was falling; while deflation was transmitted during 1932 and 1934 when the world silver price was rising. Using micro-level evidence and counterfactual simulations, we show that the exchange rate was the main shock transmission channel, and silver stocks played an insignificant role.     

Towards a Measure of Core Inflation using Singular Spectrum Analysis

This paper constructs a number of possible core measures of inflation using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Annual changes in monthly inflation are decomposed into its trend, oscillatory and noise components in order to develop an understanding of the trend and cyclicality in South African headline inflation. Three cyclical components with differing amplitude and frequency are identified. The trend and cyclical components of inflation are found to be a good approximation of core inflation, the inertial part of inflation. These core measures are compared with other candidate core measures based on the properties of a good core inflation measure. Generally, the SSA measures outperform commonly used measures of core inflation based on both in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance.     

THE EXCHANGE RATE IN THE JAPANESE ECONOMY: THE PAST,PUZZLES, AND PROSPECTS*

Selected topics in the literature on the exchange rate, in particular the yen, are reviewed from the viewpoint of some academic/practical puzzles. A survey is provided of past work covering use of the yen on PPP, covered and uncovered interest rate parity, the unbiasedness of expected future exchange rates, volatility spillover across borders and the effectiveness of intervention. The role of the yen in the international financial structure and its future role in global and regional financial markets are discussed.     

On the robustness of simple and optimal monetary policy rules

This is a discussion of the paper “Simple versus Optimal Rules as Guides to Policy” by Brock, Durlauf, Nason and Rondina (BDNR) presented in November 2006 at Carnegie-Mellon University under the auspices of the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. I review the authors’ arguments, present a few suggestions for extension and outline where I think at least one strand of the literature should be heading.