新农保制度运行过程中的风险应对——基于基本公共服务均等化的视角

从基本公共服务的角度讲,新农保制度承担着确保广大农村人口能够切实享有养老保障权利的使命。而新农保制度运行过程中面临保基本、广覆盖、可持续等方面的多重风险。从社会养老机会均等化、标准均等化、结果均等化等要求出发,提出加大宣传力度、完善法律法规体系、重视制度的整合衔接、确保基金可持续等风险应对措施。     

旅游消费理论研究的新思考——评析贝克尔的新消费者行为理论

在评析贝克尔的新消费者行为理论的基础上,指出虽然贝克尔的理论还存在一定的缺陷,但是该理论对消费研究提出的新思路有极高的参考价值,是旅游消费理论研究应该借鉴与吸纳的.     

网络时代学校德育工作的新思考

21世纪是网络时代。网络在给人类带来进步的同时，也对人类（特别是青年学生）的社会行为及人生观、价值观等带来了消极影响，从而使学校德育工作面临着新的机遇和挑战。如何迎接网络挑战，探索新的育人之路，这是我们德育工作者必须认真研究的重要课题。     

行政区划调整对住宅价格变化的影响效应分析——以南汇并入浦东新区为例

行政区划的调整往往是为了适应城市化和区域经济一体化的要求而进行的。除经济和生态环境因素外,住宅价格还受社会、文化和政治等因素的影响和作用,但行政因素对住宅价格变化影响的实证研究并不多见。以上海市南汇区并入浦东新区为例,运用Hedonic模型、多元线性回归分析、半弹性系数等方法,从时间和空间两个方面,定量测度行政区划调整对住宅市场价格变化的影响程度。结果表明:从时间变化上看,行政区划调整以后,浦东新区各板块的住宅均价呈现上涨趋势,住宅价格比调整之前上涨2.74个百分点,且前阶段的涨幅较之后要大;从空间变化上看,外郊环、郊环外涨幅潜力更大。总体而言,行政区划调整对区域住宅价格变化有一定的正面影响,但其影响程度有限且不及区位、交通和住宅特征等因素显著。因此,地方政府和房地产开发商应当理性对待行政区划调整策略,不能过于奢望通过短期的行政区划调整来提升房地产价值,而应当更多地关注开发区位的选址及区域交通和环境条件的改善,提升物业管理水平与服务质量,完善社区公共服务配套设施建设。     

Less Government—More Wealth? On the Macroeconomics of a Smaller Public Sector in Europe

In this paper, we analyze the reactions of European economies to a fiscal policy strategy aiming at diminishing the public sector. Within the framework of the MSG3 model, a macroeconomic model of the world economy, we perform several simulation experiments to explore the effects of reducing government expenditures permanently in different phases of the business cycle. For this purpose, we combine the fiscal contraction with negative and positive, Euro Area-wide and global, supply and demand shocks. It turns out that adverse Keynesian effects on output and employment tend to be mostly weak and short-lived, whereas long-run effects on output and employment are favorable. Due to these long-run effects, the fiscal contraction policy raises welfare as measured by an asymmetric quadratic objective function. The size of these welfare effects depends on the initial situation in a non-trivial manner.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

RECURRENT BUBBLES*

We study rational bubbles in a standard linear asset price model. We first consider a class of bubble processes driven by multiplicative i.i.d. shocks. We show that a bubble process in this class either diverges to infinity with probability one, converges to zero with probability one, or keeps fluctuating forever with probability one, depending on investors' “confidence” in expected bubble growth. We call a bubble process having the last property “recurrent.” We develop sufficient conditions for a bubble process to be recurrent when it is driven by non‐i.i.d. shocks, when the risk‐free interest rate is not constant, and when the process is driven by non‐i.i.d. shocks and the risk‐free interest rate is not constant. In the last case we demonstrate via simulation that there can be a prolonged period in which both the bubble and the interest rate stay close to zero.     

新贸易保护主义的特征演变及其理论依据

新贸易保护主义是特指二战以来西方发达国家的各种贸易保护理论及其政策措施。20世纪90年代以来,新贸易保护主义原有的特征产生了一些变化,表现为更多地寻求多边贸易体系下的合法性保护;对进口保护的重新重视;从非关税措施的明显性保护转向隐蔽性保护;从单纯贸易政策转向经济、竞争政策,这些演变背后存在众多的理论支持,研究这些演变及其理论依据具有重要的理论与现实意义。