Trade-off relationship between modern agriculture and biodiversity: Heavy consolidation work has a long-term negative impact on plant species diversity

Human-driven land-use changes often cause a decline in biodiversity. Although traditional agricultural practices maintained biodiversity at high levels, recent land-use changes may have negative consequences on species composition. In this study, we examined the hypothesis that land consolidation, which is a major recent land-use change in agricultural areas, decreases plant species diversity over the long term (the so-called negative legacy). To test this hypothesis, we examined the relationships between consolidated areas and the occurrence of threatened plant species across Japan and at the prefecture scale. Twenty-three threatened plant species were selected, all of which were formerly common. Our results show that areas containing records of threatened plant species rarely experienced consolidation at whole-country and prefectural scales. Breakdown analysis showed that unconsolidated agricultural areas contained significantly more threatened species than consolidated agricultural areas. These results suggest that threatened plant species require unconsolidated agricultural areas (i.e., these species could not grow in consolidated areas). Thus, we propose that consolidation history could be used as an indicator of the potential for biodiversity recovery. We also suggest that consolidated agricultural areas should be used for food production rather than for the restoration of biodiversity, for reasons of cost efficiency.     

Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri‐food Sector

The policy environment for the Irish agri‐food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid‐Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri‐food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.     

Climate adaptation in ‘new world’ cultural landscapes: The case of Bay of Fundy agricultural dykelands (Nova Scotia,Canada)

North America has few cultural agricultural landscapes, and often commensurately poor governance arrangements for managing change in such settings. This research uses the Acadian dykelands of Nova Scotia, Canada, as an opportunity to explore the social and governance limits to coastal climate adaptation in ‘new world’ cultural agricultural landscapes, as well as inform local decision-making. Approximately half of Nova Scotia’s coastal wetlands were converted to dykeland in the 1600s, lowering local resilience to the increased frequency and storm severity anticipated with climate change. Today, dykelands protect a diversity of public and private interests, meanings and values, yet are controlled by the agricultural sector, which can no longer afford to maintain them all to 2050 climate projections. We report here on a representative online Q-methodology survey of 183 adult Nova Scotians in the spring of 2015. Respondents sorted 34 statements along a normal distribution about whether they prefer dykeland maintenance or wetland restoration, and under what governance arrangements. Four factors were derived: the dominant discourse was local, female and strongly pro-dykeland, indicating the likelihood for local resistance to dykeland removal on for cultural, recreational and farming reasons. The second factor was supportive of wetland restoration for reasons of efficiency, not wetland affinity, but characterized by those in positions of management power. The two minority viewpoints were less informed about dykelands, characteristic of outsiders, and concerned more with governance. More education is needed about the challenges facing dykelands, the benefits of coastal wetlands, and the management options, but this research shows proposals to change landscape should emphasize flood mitigation over cost-saving. Cultural values and status quo bias are clearly barriers to adaptation planning, even when discussing the removal of man-made structures. The factors were surprisingly polarized, suggesting the forced-normal distribution affects the space available to convey nuanced perspectives. Large p-set Q-method of this kind is likely most useful for characterizing the emergent discourses demographically, and understanding their prevalence; the same discourses had emerged within a much smaller pilot study.     

The productivity of agricultural credit in India

This study examines the nature of the relationship between formal agricultural credit and agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India, specifically the role of the former in supporting agricultural growth, using state level panel data covering the period 1995–1996 to 2011–2012. The study uses a mediation analysis framework to map the pathways through which institutional credit relates to agricultural GDP relying on a control function approach to tackle the problem of endogeneity. The findings from the analysis suggest that over this period, all the inputs are highly responsive to an increase in institutional credit to agriculture. A 10% increase in credit flow in nominal terms leads to an increase by 1.7% in fertilizers (N, P, K) consumption in physical quantities, 5.1% increase in the tonnes of pesticides, 10.8% increase in tractor purchases. Overall, it seems quite clear that input use is sensitive to credit flow, whereas GDP of agriculture is not. Credit seems therefore to be an enabling input, but one whose effectiveness is undermined by low technical efficiency and productivity.     

Profitability and Efficiency of High Nature Value Marginal Farming in England

The UK Brexit vote triggered a new wave of policy developments for a future outside the EU. In this context, we analyse the business performance of English hill and upland farms, characterised by marginal economic conditions but also high nature value (HNV). The analysis aims to help identify farm-level management and policy options for greater economic, environmental and social sustainability. Business performance is measured as technical efficiency and the occurrence and persistence of abnormal profits, estimated through stochastic frontier analysis and static and dynamic panel-data methods. The results help indicate rationales for recent trends including farm enlargement, farm family diversification, and agri-environment scheme entry. The single farm payment is found to be negatively associated with farm technical efficiency while agri-environmental subsidies were positively associated to short-term farm profitability. Farm adaptation and resilience during a period of likely turbulence in external circumstances is discussed in light of these findings, as well as potential parallels with marginal HNV areas across Europe.     

Analysing the provision of agricultural public goods: The case of irrigated olive groves in Southern Spain

Analysis of the joint production of private and public goods (PGs) by farming activities is a fertile research field. These joint production processes are typically characterised by a high level of complexity derived from the intense relationship between the production of both kinds of outputs. An integrated approach is strongly recommended for the study of the provision of agricultural PGs and the design of public intervention in this sector. Here, we propose a theoretical framework to apply an integrated approach using the analytic network process (ANP) to analyse the production of PGs by agricultural systems to support public decision-making concerning the design and implementation of agricultural policies. We introduce a novel approach in applying ANP along both directions of the influences among elements, allowing us to identify the most influenced PGs and the farmers’ most influential decisions. This methodological approach is empirically applied to a particular farming system: the irrigated olive groves (IOG) of Southern Spain. Results show that the PGs most influenced by olive growers’ decisions are soil fertility, the visual quality of agricultural landscapes and farmland biodiversity. In addition, the most influential factors affecting the provision of PGs are the structural ones, namely farm size and tree density, and, to a lesser extent, management factors dealing with fertilisation, soil and irrigation management. These results are useful for supporting agricultural policy decision-making to enhance adequate management of this farming system regarding PGs production.     

Addressing climate change cause and effect on land cover and land use in South Asia

This paper evaluates the role of trade liberalization and agricultural intensification in mitigating climate change cause and effects on land use and emissions using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that cropland expansion triggered by climate-induced crop productivity changes results in deforestation and increases emissions in South Asia and globally. Global full trade liberalization on all goods is the optimum policy for South Asia despite significant global deforestation, but for the world, unilateral partial trade liberalization on all goods is a more appropriate policy while ensuring a considerable emissions reduction for South Asia. These results indicate that mitigation responses to climate change are location specific and no one trade policy is suitable at the regional and global levels. Lastly, agricultural intensification by improving productivity growth is the best strategy in land-based emissions mitigation, thereby avoiding the transformation of forest and pasture lands for agricultural cultivation both at regional and global levels.     

Stock markets’ bubbles burst and volatility spillovers in agricultural commodity markets

Our paper focuses on commodity financialization and the gradual integration between commodity and financial markets, investigating to what extent shocks in stock markets impact commodity price volatility, and the persistency of the phenomenon. To this end, we estimate Volatility Impulse Response Function from stock markets to agricultural commodity markets over a symmetric window before and after two of the most important bubble bursts since the new millennium, the 2000 dot.com bubble and the 2008 financial crises. Results highlight that volatility spillover increased significantly after the 2008 financial crises, signalling a rising interconnection between financial and agricultural commodity markets.     

The role of speculation in international futures markets on commodity prices

The role of futures contracts on spot prices has been one of the key focus areas of research since the recent surge in commodity prices and increase in the volatility of commodity returns. However, no consensus arises from this literature, and hence it is difficult to link the use of futures contracts in agricultural commodities by non-hedgers and the growing food insecurity within developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to highlight causal relationships from futures contracts to spot prices of underlying assets, namely agricultural commodities. As research that focus on exchange-traded funds do not provide any clear conclusions, we focus on the imbalance between short- and long-open positions, this imbalance being caused by the exchange traded funds’ participation in futures markets. In this paper, we estimate relationships between financial variables including indicators for speculation in futures markets and the returns of cocoa, corn, soybean, wheat, coffee, rice, and sugar on a weekly basis from 1998 to 2013. Significant results lead to Granger-causality tests that in turn validate the hypothesis of a positive impact of speculation in futures markets to returns on the underlying commodities.