论中国货币政策在宏观调控中面临的新挑战

随着世界经济一体化的逐步深入推进,中国经济在世界经济发展中的影响愈来愈大,中国货币政策在履行职能、实现宏观调控目标的过程中,面临着包括人民币汇率形成机制改革、资产价格波动、人民币国际化、国际金融体系及国际金融监管改革等诸多新的挑战。     

资产价格泡沫与我国货币政策传导效应的非对称性研究

本文通过构造含有资产价格泡沫的经济系统,使用结构向量自回归模型与脉冲响应函数分析了我国货币政策对资产泡沫的影响和资产价格泡沫与其它变量之间的关系。结果表明,我国货币政策的资产价格传导渠道效应显著存在,但货币政策的资产价格效应对于不同资产类型具有非对称性,货币政策对股票市场的影响要远远大于对房地产市场的影响;资产价格泡沫的正向冲击对通货膨胀呈现出倒U型影响,并且不同资产类型对通货膨胀具有非对称性,股票市场对通货膨胀的影响要远远大于房地产市场;资产价格泡沫对产出具有正向效应,但不同资产价格类型对于产出冲击也存在非对称性,股票资产价格对产出的影响要小于房地产对产出的影响。     

资产证券化流动性的系统协同分析

在系统协同视角下,资产证券化流动性具有三个层次,第一层次指被证券化资产的流动性,第二层次指资产支持证券的一级市场流动性,第三层次指资产支持证券的二级市场流动性,前两个层次流动性的成败最终取决于第三层次的流动性。资产证券化流动性的系统协同要素包括市场基础、工具创新以及风险监管。解决我国资产证券化流动性不足的出路在于层次和要素的系统协同。     

金融机构资产证券化发起人会计确认问题探讨

本文分析了国外关于证券化资产会计确认的主流模式,并结合中国国情,对我国金融机构资产证券化发起人的会计确认问题进行了深入分析。     

Optimal portfolio choice with wash sale constraints

We analytically solve the portfolio choice problem in the presence of wash sale constraints in a two-period model with one risky asset. Our results show that wash sale constraints can heavily affect portfolio choice of investors with unrealized losses. The trading behavior of such investors is to a large extent driven by the desire to realize those losses, either immediately by sharply decreasing the holding of assets carrying unrealized losses, or indirectly by increasing such holdings in order to prepare for a decrease in a future period to earn the tax rebate payment. Our findings are robust to increasing the number of trading dates and introducing a second risky asset and a correlation structure.     

政府性投资公司路在何方

政府性投资公司经过多年探索,已成为地区经济中颇具综合实力和经营能力的微观经济主体。要实现政府性投资公司可持续发展,就要突破观念瓶颈,把握政策功能的新内涵,提高公司的筹融资能力、资产经营和资本经营能力以及投资管理能力。     

Trade mechanism selection in markets with frictions

We endogenize the trade mechanism in a search economy with many homogeneous sellers and many heterogeneous buyers of unobservable type. We study how heterogeneity and the traders' continuation values—which are endogenous—influence the sellers' choice of trade mechanism. Sellers trade off the probability of an immediate sale against the surplus expected from it, choosing whether to trade with everyone and how quickly. In equilibrium sellers may simply target one buyer type via non-negotiable offers (price posting), or may price discriminate (haggling). We also study when haggling generates trading delays. A price setting externality arises because of a strategic complementarity in the sellers' pricing choices.     

Optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures

This paper presents a model for optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures. This model is a multiperiod linear programming model based on Markowitz portfolio theory. Given the bank's initial position, its economic forecasts, and the constraints under which it operates, the model can help a bank's senior executives determine the current and expected future balance sheet composition and financial futures position which will minimize the bank's operating risks and which will meet the bank's expected profits goal with the minimum possible profits risk. By parametrically varying the expected profits goal, the model will generate the set of risk-return efficient decisions. Bankers need then examine only the set of efficient decisions to choose their optimal solution. A simplified example is used to illustrate the application of our model and to demonstrate that banks that use financial futures in asset and liability management can obtain better results than banks that do not use financial futures.     

Robust asset prices with bubbles

We generally establish equilibrium asset prices than can include price bubbles yet (a) be robust to truncations of the economy and (b) exclude trade in non-consumables, like money, stock certificates, or land deeds.     

Shaking the tree: an agency-theoretic model of asset pricing

Summary. In this paper, we develop an agency-theoretic extension of the Lucas asset pricing model and examine the resulting asset price dynamics. In the model, an agent of the firm can expand or contract the firms output and dividend payments in response to exogenous shocks, although expansions become increasingly costly for the agent to maintain. Analysis of numerical simulations shows that the time-series of equilibrium asset prices exhibits both significant time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity, and longer memory persistence.We would like to thank Beth Shorish for her patience and guidance during this project, as well as conference participants at the 1998 North American Econometric Society Summer Meetings, Montreal, and the 53rd Econometric Society European Meetings, Berlin for their many useful comments.