‘Regular’ choice and the weak axiom of stochastic revealed preference

We explore the relation between two ‘rationality conditions’ for stochastic choice behavior: regularity and the weak axiom of stochastic revealed preference (WASRP). We show that WASRP implies regularity, but the converse is not true. We identify a restriction on the domain of the stochastic choice function, which suffices for regularity to imply WASRP. When the universal set of alternatives is finite, this restriction is also necessary for regularity to imply WASRP. Furthermore, we identify necessary and sufficient domain restrictions for regularity to imply WASRP, when the universal set of alternatives is finite and stochastic choice functions are all degenerate. Results in the traditional, deterministic, framework regarding the relation between Chernoff’s condition and the weak axiom of revealed preference follow as special cases. Thus, general conditions are established, under which regularity can substitute for WASRP as the axiomatic foundation for a theory of choice behavior.     

美国银行业资本监管演变与新进展

文章旨在梳理美国银行业资本监管体系的演进过程,通过时序研究方法揭示美国银行业资本监管的发展动态与脉络。研究发现,美国银行业资本监管与其经济发展趋势密切相关,经济繁荣期监管当局倾向放松监管,这其中有着十分复杂的利益攸关方的激烈博弈,而在经济衰退期,在金融体系风险的压力下,监管当局会收紧监管标准。从中可以窥见,上世纪20年代前的宽松监管与1929年大萧条,二次世界大战后的经济繁荣与70年代经济滞涨,监管加强,80年代初的放松管制与80年代中后期银行大量倒闭,90年代金融服务现代化法案与2008年的全球金融危机,交替出现的银行业监管放松与收紧的变化有着内在的规律性。研究美国银行业资本监管历史、监管体系和监管措施,有助于我国加强银行体系的风险防范,完善银行业资本监管制度和机制。     

Changes in Global Trade Patterns and Women's Employment in Manufacturing, 1995–2011

This study investigates the feminization and defeminization trends in manufacturing employment in thirty countries from 1995 to 2011. Utilizing two separate methods, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and factor content analysis (FCA), the study identifies the major industries and trade partners behind the structural shifts in trade that have induced changes in employment and thus in the rates of women’s employment. The findings highlight that, as a general trend, defeminization in manufacturing has persisted in the Global North, led by a negative trade impact in low-technology industries. In the Global South, feminization and defeminization trends are not as straightforward. Despite positive changes in women’s share of employment in medium-high- and high-technology industries, negative gender bias effects of trade changes are found particularly in high-technology industries, where occupations are notably gendered.     

Growth and Nongrowth Capital Investments and Future Performance*

Most studies on the impact of capital expenditure on future performance use the aggregate capital expenditure disclosed in the cash flow statement. In this study, however, we distinguish between growth capital investments (that increase production capacity) from nongrowth capital investments (that only maintain or reduce current capacity). For growth capital investments, we document a negative association with year-ahead performance, which becomes positive in the subsequent year. For nongrowth capital investments, we observe a non-negative association with year-ahead performance. For nongrowth capital investments, we document a positive association, suggesting that the divestment is beneficial. That is, firms are likely disposing of nonproductive assets. Our results suggest that disclosing the nature of capital investments is important to better assess the future impact of a firm's investment decisions.     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

Conditional ordering extensions

We produce a solution to the problem of extending a quasiordering conditional on a finite list of ex-ante comparisons between pairs. This constitutes yet another extension of the classical Szpilrajn’s theorem. Some examples of use of our result follow.     

Does microfinance empower women? Evidence from self‐help groups in India

Microfinance programmes like the Self Help Bank Linkage Program in India have been increasingly promoted for their positive economic impact and the belief that they empower women. However, only a few studies rigorously examine the link between microfinance and women’s empowerment. This article contributes to this discussion by arguing that women’s empowerment takes place when women challenge the existing social norms and culture, to effectively improve their well‐being. It empirically validates this hypothesis by using quasi‐experimental household sample data collected for five states in India for 2000 and 2003. A general model is estimated by employing appropriate techniques to treat the ordinal variables in order to estimate the impact of the Self Help Group (SHG) on women’s empowerment for 2000 and 2003. The results strongly demonstrate that on average, there is a significant increase in the empowerment of women in the SHG members group. No such significant change is observed however, for the members of the control group. The elegance of the result lies in the fact that the group of SHG participants show clear evidence of a significant and higher empowerment, while allowing for the possibility that some members might have been more empowered than others.     

Two new proofs of Afriat’s theorem

Summary. We provide two new, simple proofs of Afriats celebrated theorem stating that a finite set of price-quantity observations is consistent with utility maximization if, and only if, the observations satisfy a variation of the Strong Axiom of Revealed Preference known as the Generalized Axiom of Revealed PreferenceReceived: 12 June 2003, Revised: 9 October 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D11, C60.Correspondence to: A. Fostel     

Wagner’s law versus displacement effect

The public sector has grown dramatically over the past few centuries in many developed countries. In this article, we use wavelet methods to distinguish between two leading explanations for this growth – Wagner’s law and the displacement effect. In doing so, we use the long-term data of 10 OECD countries for a maximum time span of 1800–2009. We find that the validity of Wagner’s law is likely to vary strongly over time for each country. A roughly similar feature in most of the countries is that the law is less valid in the earliest stage of economic development as well as in the advanced stages, with the validity tending to follow an inverted U-shaped pattern with economic development. Further, our results indicate that the long-run growth of government size cannot be adequately explained by Wagner’s law. On the other hand, the displacement effect appears to account for the bulk of the growth in most of the countries.     

Markups,Tobin's q,and the Increasing Capital Share

Increasing markups have recently gained prominence as a leading explanation for the increasing share of income going to capital since the 1980s. However, the existing analysis has been limited to the United States, covers only short periods, and generally does not control for potentially important confounders. Constructing data for the share of income going to capital and markups based on Tobin's q over the period 1870–2018 for 21 advanced countries, this research examines the ability of markups to explain the movements of income shares and the tendency for factor shares to converge toward constants in the long run. We find strong support for the markup hypothesis.